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-   -   System Chat collection (Galor fleet estimation) (http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=253573)

Archived Post 02-09-2012 05:49 PM

System Chat collection (Galor fleet estimation)
 
*Edit* Adding data as well as clearing up instructions

Greetings Captains (and Admirals),

I'd like to start getting some chat logs from people so we can begin to estimate how many Galor class vessels are created each day. I am strongly suspecting they are not as rare as we are led to believe. While the drop rate may indeed be low (0.5% if the Jem'Hadar ship is a good example), the actual number of ships in the game may still be quite high.

Chat Channel Setup:
  1. Right click the top heading of your chat window (where it says Chat, NPC, Cobat, etc.)
  2. In the window that pops up, click the New button (bottom right).
  3. Deselect every option on the left column of "Channels to Display"
  4. Select only the "System" channel. It should be 4th from the bottom.
  5. Deselect any "Custom Channels" in the right column.
  6. Go to the "Options" tab of the Chat Configuration window that you are in.
  7. Select "Show Dates" and "Show Times"
  8. Enjoy playing STO (but do not log out or change characters before next step)
  9. Before logging off, or changing characters, copy the entire contents of your new chat tab and paste them into some form of text document.

Copy whatever results you have and paste them in to an formatted text document of some sort. Send me an in game mail and we can work out how to exchange the data.

I will compile the results, remove repeat names and produce an estimated Galor class ship creation rate. Just wait until you see the ships per hour rate changing over time. Unfortunately the initial spike will be lost to us, but we can still get some great data over the weekend.

Please start collecting whatever you are able to. I will not be able to be in game (or on the forums) for a while, but will do what I can too.


Preliminary Collected Data:

I logged on at about 7:20pm CST. This was long after the initial rush when the boxes were first released. Some players suggested that the Galor creation rates were closer to 35/hour at the start of the event. The numbers I saw were substantially less than that.

Time (CST) / Count
19:00 / 10 (only 45 minutes of the hour were logged)
20:00 / 13
21:00 / 12
22:00 / 13
23:00 / 15
00:00 / 7
01:00 / 2 (only 30 minutes in to the hour)


Estimated Boxes Opened:

If the drop rate of the Galor, is the same as the Jem'Hadar ship (0.5%), then we can estimate how many boxes were opened. There should be one ship per 200 boxes on average. Given 114 ships created there should have been 22,800 boxes opened. Over the 6 hours 10 minutes I was logging there should have been almost 3,700 boxes opened per hour. This is quite a reasonable number.



Estimated Drop Rate:

I do not see anything above to suggest that the drop rate of the Galor is any different than the Jem'Hadar ship. There is a wide variety of ways available to obtain the boxes in game. I believe anyone who wants a box will be able to obtain one.

When the event first launched, there was likely a spike in the number of people opening boxes. That number should have trailed off over the day. I expect they will see some bumps in box openings during peak hours Friday and certainly over the weekend for the FE series. What looked like a high number of ships appearing (easily obtainable) was most likely just a very high number of boxes being opened.

It seems unlikely to me that the drop rate has actually been increased.

Archived Post 02-09-2012 05:50 PM

*2/10 5:00pm CST Update* (3:00pm PST server time)


The First 24 Hours:

I logged as much of the fist 24 hours as possible. This required the assistance of a few generous forum posters as well as my whole evening running both TOR and STO simultaneously on the same dated computer. I believe the results were worth it. I will be continuing this through late this evening and as much of the weekend as possible.

What you will see here is the amount of Galor class vessels created in each hour. This gives us an idea for how often people are participating in the lottery. We will not know the drop rate of the Galor from the box. We will know how many Galors there are in the game and effectively how "rare" they are.


Results Table:

Apologies for the ugliness of the table. The forums do not allow for proper table editing as near as I can find.

What you see below is a table of the hour (GMT) and how many ships were actually observed in the chat log. I have also included and estimation for hours where we do not have clear data or where we only recorded 30 minutes, rather than a full hour.

Time (GMT)_Count_Est.
2/9 20:00___14___28
2/9 21:00___---___25
2/9 22:00___10___25
2/9 23:00___---___20
2/10 0:00___---___18
2/10 1:00___10___16
2/10 2:00___13___13
2/10 3:00___12___12
2/10 4:00___13___13
2/10 5:00___15___15
2/10 6:00____7____7
2/10 7:00____8____8
2/10 8:00____---___0
2/10 9:00____---___0
2/10 10:00__---__???
2/10 11:00__---__???
2/10 12:00__---__???
2/10 13:00__---__???
2/10 14:00___8___17
2/10 15:00___13___13
2/10 16:00___5___30


Results Graph:

I have also produced a graph of the results. I will attempt to keep updating this graph as I collect more data.
Chart Link: Galor Creation Rate Graph (direct image shack link)

Initial Conclusion:

The Galor class does not appear to be dropping as frequently as it feels based on the System Chat spam. We are only seeing a handful every hour. While this may change over the weekend, the drop rate is still probably in line with the 0.5% measured on the Jem'Hadar box.

The 128 Galor class vessels observed would represent about 25,600 keys bought and boxes opened. That is not at all unreasonable for a game with subscribers numbering in the 10's of thousands.


*** 2/13/2012 12:00pm CST Update*** (10:00am PST server time)

Weekend Drop Rates:

I spent a great deal of time loitering in STO this weekend. The results are 2,009 minutes since the launch of the Galor lock box. In that time I have recorded 478 Galor Class vessels brought into the STO universe. This works out to an average drop rate of 0.238 ships per minute. Effectively one ship every 4 minutes that the server is up and running.

I will let anyone who wants to run their own numbers for how many keys were purchased to achieve those numbers. I have measured it myself as keys/hour, C-Points/hour and $/hour all assuming the same drop rate as the Jem'Hadar vessel.


Graphed Results:

I graphed the results of my measurements over the weekend. For convenience, I produced one chart in GMT and another in PST (server time). You can see a spike in Saturday when the FE series launched. Overall, the rate of 14 Galors per hour (or 0.238 per minute) held fairly steady throughout the weekend.

Drop Record (GMT): Chart (direct image shack link)
Drop Record (PST): Chart (direct image shack link)
Measured Drop Rate by Hour (PST): Chart (direct image shack link)

Rarity Implications:

Since launch, I predict there were 1,356 ships released onto the server between the lock box launch and the time of this posting (Monday 12:00pm CST) about 95 hours later. I have verified (via System Chat log) the creation of 478 Galor class vessels.

The Galor Fleet should roughly equal the 2800 Jem'Hadar fleet by the time of the second FE launch on Saturday. Think that we could retake DS9 with that force? Are there enough crews for the vessels?

Now the real question must be asked. Just how "rare" are these ships? I must ask you to compare to how many Galaxy-X ships you see. I know that I do not run in to many of the Galaxy-X. I suspect that the community self polices itself on some ships to increase the apparent rarity of a vessel.
Rarity may be impacted by:
  • Ship C-Store Price
  • Ship Tier (VA vs. RA)
  • Competetive stats of the ship.
  • Player percieved quality of canon.
I suspect that ships like the Galor and the Jem'Hadar would have been sufficiently rare at a C-Store price of ~$30 or 2,400 C-Points and restricted to VA. Given a slightly increased price, and the above factors, I believe that the ships would have been relatively rare without the lottery.

Archived Post 02-10-2012 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunnlang
*Reserved*

Note: For now, just collect the data. I will provide a way for you to get it to me soon.

Dunnlang bud, will you be looking for data on Master Key purchases or will you be strictly focused on the chat log data?

Archived Post 02-10-2012 12:40 AM

The op has been substantially updated. When I originally posted it, I was in a rush to get home and start logging data. You will now see the fruits of some of my labor.

BlackV7,

I am just collecting gross Galor class ship creation rate. My goal is to find out just how "rare" they are. Initially it looked like there were many being found, but they have slowed down slightly since the boxes were first released.

I am not sure how to calculate key purchases aside from more self-reported data. I may be willing to collect those data, but they are probably more trouble than they are worth. There appeared to be some distortions last time.

The chat log data will probably dry up in a few minutes when the server goes down. If that happens, then we can decide the best way to continue.


All who read this,

If the System spam continues (after down time), I ask anyone available to collect data and share it. I will be unavialable most of Friday. I would really like to see data for prime time Europe and North America.

Archived Post 02-10-2012 07:28 AM

I'll do what I can.

I really hope to see the results from some of those that spent heavily on the Jem Hadar ship, and hear about their drop rate results.

Archived Post 02-10-2012 07:36 AM

How does this work if you have no idea what the population of STO is? Those messages that pop up on the screen telling everyone who just got a Galor are only representative of the total sample size. You'd have to compare them against the entire STO population in order for them to be meaningful.

It would be a better estimate to just take logs that show that particular individual getting a Galor as well as how many boxes they acquired, etc. Wouldn't it?

Archived Post 02-10-2012 07:40 AM

Don't mean to rain on this a bit, but it you read below:

http://forums.startrekonline.com/sho...d.php?t=253598

It puts doubt into whether these people have actually got the ship or not.

Archived Post 02-10-2012 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maziken
How does this work if you have no idea what the population of STO is? Those messages that pop up on the screen telling everyone who just got a Galor are only representative of the total sample size. You'd have to compare them against the entire STO population in order for them to be meaningful.

It would be a better estimate to just take logs that show that particular individual getting a Galor as well as how many boxes they acquired, etc. Wouldn't it?

We have no way of knowing how many boxes anyone acquired. All we could do would be to put a thread out here and ask people to stop by and voluntarily report that. The self-reported data tends to be a bit less reliable than I would like. I suspect that the way boxes are earned this time would make the data even less reliable.

What I am doing here is simply measuring the rate at which the Galor ships are created. That will work as a metric to assess both server population and lottery box popularity. You won't have an exact number of either, but you will get an idea for how many Galor class ships there are.

The whole point of the exercise this time is to expose roughly how many Galor class ships there are. I want to show that they are not rare by most reasonable standards.

Archived Post 02-10-2012 07:50 AM

No disrespect, but what is the point in this? I knew nothing about these boxes until this morning, and at quick glance I could see that it's a way of getting people to buy c points, thus the chances of hitting jackpot are very low. Surely it's obvious to everyone with some sense the ship is a low drop. Knowing the estimated rate won't make a difference.

Archived Post 02-10-2012 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluecat69
Don't mean to rain on this a bit, but it you read below:

http://forums.startrekonline.com/sho...d.php?t=253598

It puts doubt into whether these people have actually got the ship or not.

While many aspects of the game have been broken in the past, I doubt they messed up the system reporting message that badly. I have contacted a few people who won ships (especially some who got more than one) and found that they had indeed gotten ships.

IF we are getting false reports, there are far more serious problems with this lottery than drop rate.


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