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-   -   Error (probability bug) in childrens toys missions (http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=429501)

roejspinodji 10-30-2012 03:16 PM

Error (probability bug) in childrens toys missions
 
The probabilty calculations shown for retrieving a console from the powered alien artefact do not match with the result. Something is pretty badly wrong here....
I have 24 % probability for purple, 51 for blue and 25 for green. So actually around every 4th console should be purple.
However, after trying out around 200 times (to really see, if it is a bug or not) I can say that around 9 % is purple, 44 % blue and 47% green.
Pretty annoying...... :mad:
Please Cryptic get it fixed....

I have reported this error earlier, but unfortunately so far no response, change or anything....

kirisee 10-30-2012 03:42 PM

I've noticed a similar thing with confiscate contraband.....i' not sure but it seems to be rolling the dice backwards......for example, its rolling a set of dice for the failure chance first, then for success, then for a crit. It's almost like it's rolling 3 times instead of just making one roll.

All i know for sure is after Season 6 launched, Doff mission success rates have taken a nosedive for no reason.

criss11 10-30-2012 11:04 PM

screw the crafting consoles,sell the powered artifacts and save the money, you won't fail to get what you need.
I sell those things and i'm happy that i don't fail,waste my time and resources and not ruining my day :D
New ppl to game might still buy artifacts to try and if the selling will not working anymore screw the artifact doff missions, just change your bussiness to another items..very simple

have fun and srry for you.

Similar failure assignment chances to crafting consoles is the temporal assignment from that beacon thingy so be careful with that too.

goltzhar 10-31-2012 01:49 AM

@ OP
The thing about statistics is that you need a LARGE number of tries before you can even begin to see the real stats.

Not 100, not 1000, but maybe 5000 or more..
When you do your crafting the % is what it says. But for your thougt to work, the game has to concider/save/be aware of all of your previous attempts to get a purple, but that is not the case.

When you start the crafting, the game sees it as you would start it for the first time. over and over again. And statistics will show if you take every console made by everyone in the game within a month to be close to what the % says.

There is nothing to say that you don't get 250 green in a row.. (not likely but possible) and then 240 Purple and 510 blue in a row. Very unlikely but still possible.

Bottom line... you need ALOT of crafting to see the real %.

mbp101287 10-31-2012 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goltzhar (Post 6326641)
@ OP
The thing about statistics is that you need a LARGE number of tries before you can even begin to see the real stats.

Not 100, not 1000, but maybe 5000 or more..
When you do your crafting the % is what it says. But for your thougt to work, the game has to concider/save/be aware of all of your previous attempts to get a purple, but that is not the case.

When you start the crafting, the game sees it as you would start it for the first time. over and over again. And statistics will show if you take every console made by everyone in the game within a month to be close to what the % says.

There is nothing to say that you don't get 250 green in a row.. (not likely but possible) and then 240 Purple and 510 blue in a row. Very unlikely but still possible.

Bottom line... you need ALOT of crafting to see the real %.

No, OP is right. His results should have been alot closer to the stated percentages. 200 or so consoles crafted is definitely a large enough data set to make a conclusion that the percentages aren't correct. And the game would not have any need to remember what you rolled in the past. Either it's a random roll each time and he should be getting closer to 24% purple, or the game artificially generates the "roll" based upon some sort of pre-chosen outcomes; either way, things are not working as advertised.

badname834854 11-01-2012 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by criss11 (Post 6325961)
screw the crafting consoles,sell the powered artifacts and save the money, you won't fail to get what you need.
I sell those things and i'm happy that i don't fail,waste my time and resources and not ruining my day :D
New ppl to game might still buy artifacts to try and if the selling will not working anymore screw the artifact doff missions, just change your bussiness to another items..very simple

have fun and srry for you.

Similar failure assignment chances to crafting consoles is the temporal assignment from that beacon thingy so be careful with that too.

I think the big problem comes from the fact that the only consoles worth a **** are TAC cosnoles (with the exception of mine consoles and a handful of ENG consoles)...that's it!

jake81499 11-01-2012 07:45 AM

Agreed.
 
The childrens toys console mission seems to have always been bugged. You can run it over and over and over with efficient resolve purple doffs and all you'll recieve are green stealth consoles with an occasional blue stealth module thrown in. And yes, it's pretty sad.

BUT I was going to post something today that I kinda might have discovered and wanted to ask if anyone else had noticed it or if it's even true.

Has anyone noticed a cool down on the Childrens toys console mission which might improve the chances of getting better stuff?

I tried letting it set for a variety of times (2 hours, 4 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours and such)

Doing this I recieved 2 purple Antiproton Mag Regs and a purple Phaser console all in a row. These are the best items I've seen in probably 1000 runs. Then I recieved a couple purple science consoles and a couple purple engineering.

The problem is I don't remember what kind of cooldown time I gave it to get the tac consoles.

I don't really know if there's a cooldown for the good stuff or not but it seemed to work at least for a while.

I have several efficient and several stubborn doffs which I rotate. I've not found a cunning doff that works in the making of consoles yet.

roejspinodji 11-01-2012 11:50 AM

I will try it out with the cooldown times, it may be possible that you are right.
Will post my experience here later....
Thx !

admgreer 11-01-2012 03:16 PM

I am gettin close to the 300 mark in crafting and lost count of the Bio-Function and Stealth Modules I have recieved along with Pre-fire chambers. It seems that the same 4 crappy consoles appear over and over. Every now and then an armor appears. (But never Nutronium) and I have gotten 2 Poloron and 2 Tet consoles but never Disruptor, Phaser or Antiproton. I woulden't mind Blue consoles if they were just something besides crappy Sci consoles over and over. I stopped useing Stubbord doffs and went to Efficent and started getting more Eng consoles than before. Perhaps the Cunning trait is what drops more Tac consoles. The KDF has some Orion ENg doffs with resolve and Cunning. I may start crafting on my Klingon to see if it makes a difference.

jake81499 11-01-2012 07:01 PM

Names Please
 
Would anyone happen to know that names of some Eng doffs with Resolve and Cunning on the Fed side that will actually work with Childrens toys?

I've bought several with resolve and cunning but they never show up on the list of useable doffs for whatever reason.


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