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Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 2
02-09-2012, 05:50 PM
*2/10 5:00pm CST Update* (3:00pm PST server time)

The First 24 Hours:

I logged as much of the fist 24 hours as possible. This required the assistance of a few generous forum posters as well as my whole evening running both TOR and STO simultaneously on the same dated computer. I believe the results were worth it. I will be continuing this through late this evening and as much of the weekend as possible.

What you will see here is the amount of Galor class vessels created in each hour. This gives us an idea for how often people are participating in the lottery. We will not know the drop rate of the Galor from the box. We will know how many Galors there are in the game and effectively how "rare" they are.

Results Table:

Apologies for the ugliness of the table. The forums do not allow for proper table editing as near as I can find.

What you see below is a table of the hour (GMT) and how many ships were actually observed in the chat log. I have also included and estimation for hours where we do not have clear data or where we only recorded 30 minutes, rather than a full hour.

Time (GMT)_Count_Est.
2/9 20:00___14___28
2/9 21:00___---___25
2/9 22:00___10___25
2/9 23:00___---___20
2/10 0:00___---___18
2/10 1:00___10___16
2/10 2:00___13___13
2/10 3:00___12___12
2/10 4:00___13___13
2/10 5:00___15___15
2/10 6:00____7____7
2/10 7:00____8____8
2/10 8:00____---___0
2/10 9:00____---___0
2/10 10:00__---__???
2/10 11:00__---__???
2/10 12:00__---__???
2/10 13:00__---__???
2/10 14:00___8___17
2/10 15:00___13___13
2/10 16:00___5___30

Results Graph:

I have also produced a graph of the results. I will attempt to keep updating this graph as I collect more data.
Chart Link: Galor Creation Rate Graph (direct image shack link)

Initial Conclusion:

The Galor class does not appear to be dropping as frequently as it feels based on the System Chat spam. We are only seeing a handful every hour. While this may change over the weekend, the drop rate is still probably in line with the 0.5% measured on the Jem'Hadar box.

The 128 Galor class vessels observed would represent about 25,600 keys bought and boxes opened. That is not at all unreasonable for a game with subscribers numbering in the 10's of thousands.

*** 2/13/2012 12:00pm CST Update*** (10:00am PST server time)

Weekend Drop Rates:

I spent a great deal of time loitering in STO this weekend. The results are 2,009 minutes since the launch of the Galor lock box. In that time I have recorded 478 Galor Class vessels brought into the STO universe. This works out to an average drop rate of 0.238 ships per minute. Effectively one ship every 4 minutes that the server is up and running.

I will let anyone who wants to run their own numbers for how many keys were purchased to achieve those numbers. I have measured it myself as keys/hour, C-Points/hour and $/hour all assuming the same drop rate as the Jem'Hadar vessel.

Graphed Results:

I graphed the results of my measurements over the weekend. For convenience, I produced one chart in GMT and another in PST (server time). You can see a spike in Saturday when the FE series launched. Overall, the rate of 14 Galors per hour (or 0.238 per minute) held fairly steady throughout the weekend.

Drop Record (GMT): Chart (direct image shack link)
Drop Record (PST): Chart (direct image shack link)
Measured Drop Rate by Hour (PST): Chart (direct image shack link)

Rarity Implications:

Since launch, I predict there were 1,356 ships released onto the server between the lock box launch and the time of this posting (Monday 12:00pm CST) about 95 hours later. I have verified (via System Chat log) the creation of 478 Galor class vessels.

The Galor Fleet should roughly equal the 2800 Jem'Hadar fleet by the time of the second FE launch on Saturday. Think that we could retake DS9 with that force? Are there enough crews for the vessels?

Now the real question must be asked. Just how "rare" are these ships? I must ask you to compare to how many Galaxy-X ships you see. I know that I do not run in to many of the Galaxy-X. I suspect that the community self polices itself on some ships to increase the apparent rarity of a vessel.
Rarity may be impacted by:
  • Ship C-Store Price
  • Ship Tier (VA vs. RA)
  • Competetive stats of the ship.
  • Player percieved quality of canon.
I suspect that ships like the Galor and the Jem'Hadar would have been sufficiently rare at a C-Store price of ~$30 or 2,400 C-Points and restricted to VA. Given a slightly increased price, and the above factors, I believe that the ships would have been relatively rare without the lottery.