View Single Post
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 232
# 14
08-06-2012, 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecosmic1 View Post
Most people have multiple alts and want the Lockbox ships for them as well - that was the whole point of your thread: getting the ships on more then 1 character. So people keep buying Keys even after they win a ship, not only for the Lobi but because they want a second ship - maybe for an alt or maybe just to sell on the Exchange.

And yes, Keys are cheap. For every person who spends $100.00 on Keys there's someone else who won the ship only spending $1.25. It's all about averages on Cryptic's side. For example, everyone I know who's won one of the ships did so by spending less then $10.00 to get it. I have a friend who bought 5 Keys and won 2 ships from those 5. Cryptic knows exactly what that average is.

So yes, if I could spend $5.00 and get a new Tholian ship for all my alts, I would certainly do it - and there's nothing major in the Lobi store to keep my paying $1.25 for 4 Lobi Crystals once all my alts have the ship. I know I'm not alone in that; and that means less Lockbox sales for Cryptic in the long-term.
What you're listing there are the most common gambler's lies.
"I only played three times and won the jackpot" kind of lies.
Sometimes they are half-thruths (they only played three times THAT DAY), usually though they are flat out lies trying to cover shame about gambling activities, attempts to cover up how much of a problem they really have. Only VERY, VERY RARELY these numbers are true.

For STO Lockboxes, we can actually estimate the probability for a ship pretty well.
- Cryptic explained that a key costing 100 CP would on average yield 170 CP worth of unlocks.
- Let's assume that each lockbox contains either
a) a ship, worth 2000 CP, or
b) random crap valued at 50 CP
(that's a VERY, VERY optimistic way of looking at it, ignoring the value of Lobi and undervalueing the random crap - Cryptic probably values it much higher. Thus, we get a HIGH estimate for ship probability, the real one should be quite a bit lower still)
- this would yield a ship in 6.15% of lockboxes, and random crap in 93.85% of them ... or a ship every 16.26 lockboxes, or 20$ on average.

Again, this is a HIGH estimate.
A lower, probably more realistic estimate (crap valued at 120 CP) would only yield a ship at 2.66%, or 37.6 lockboxes, or 47$.
And that's still not the low estimate, if you think of stuff like unique weapons and consoles or less desireable ships like currently the mirror universe cruisers ... then numbers of less than 1% / 100 boxes / 125$ don't really look too unrealistic, either.

No matter what, people saying they got their ship in less than 10 boxes are either very lucky ... or, a lot more probable, lieing to avoid seeming like a degenerate gambler who just spent three-digit dollars on a bunch of pixels in a free-to-play game.

That's the math.