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Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 232
# 18
08-06-2012, 06:12 PM
*sigh* ...
"luck" is the other side of probability.
Getting 2/5 has to happen at times. Very rarely, but it has to happen. Even 5/5 probably happened to someone already. It's just VERY, VERY, VERY, VERY ... VERY LUCKY.
And if you witnessed it, I have no reason to disbelief you in THIS ONE CASE ... well, no extra reason beside this being the internet, and every word from everyone being suspect. But no specific reason. Tell your friend excactly how lucky he was, and congratulate him.

What I'm arguing against is NOT that one special case - as I already said, that has to happen, too, just as 5/5, or just as 0/500 have to happen.
I'm telling you that generalizing from a single issue of being lucky and ignoring the math leads to extremly bad advice.

Ships DON'T generall drop like 1/5. Even 1/50 is still pretty optimistic. For the tholian ships, less than 1/100 looks a lot more realistic.


Whether you want to play that game or not ... well, that's your choice. You now have an idea of the odds. If you're able of making responsible decisions and feel like it's worth your money, go ahead and spent some. If not ... then abstain, and either get a ship from the exchange ... or abstain. Easy. (Well, not so easy for some, but that's complusive behavior, and people suffering from that should think about talking to a specialist.)


Oh, and as nobody mentioned it yet: These ships are supposed to be VERY rare. CBS, who have a say on everything done with their IP, have decreed that these ships should not be generally available. They don't want everyone flying around in non-Fed/non-KDF ships.
So, the lockbox approach is actually reasonable, and limiting the ships to single characters is also reasonable.

What we could discuss, though it might lead into questions of ethics that are outside the scope of this forum, is
a) if they are priced fairly. Though ... in the end, this comes down to a question of supply and demand. And the demand, as it is, certainly justifies the price.
b) if you should have a gambling system at all in a game that's not restricted to responsible adults. Gambling sites don't have age restrictions for no reason, 21+ in the US, 18+ in most european countries. And offering such a lockbox system could well turn out to be in violation of either region's laws for gambling and/or youth protection. But that'd be for a court to decide, AFAIK there's no precedent for this.