Error (probability bug) in childrens toys missions
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Join Date: Jul 2012
10-31-2012, 07:28 AM
Originally Posted by
The thing about statistics is that you need a LARGE number of tries before you can even begin to see the real stats.
Not 100, not 1000, but maybe 5000 or more..
When you do your crafting the % is what it says. But for your thougt to work, the game has to concider/save/be aware of all of your previous attempts to get a purple, but that is not the case.
When you start the crafting, the game sees it as you would start it for the first time. over and over again. And statistics will show if you take every console made by everyone in the game within a month to be close to what the % says.
There is nothing to say that you don't get 250 green in a row.. (not likely but possible) and then 240 Purple and 510 blue in a row. Very unlikely but still possible.
Bottom line... you need ALOT of crafting to see the real %.
No, OP is right. His results should have been alot closer to the stated percentages. 200 or so consoles crafted is definitely a large enough data set to make a conclusion that the percentages aren't correct. And the game would not have any need to remember what you rolled in the past. Either it's a random roll each time and he should be getting closer to 24% purple, or the game artificially generates the "roll" based upon some sort of pre-chosen outcomes; either way, things are not working as advertised.