Error (probability bug) in childrens toys missions
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Join Date: Jun 2012
12-12-2012, 09:33 PM
Originally Posted by
My only point is, that it seems many people in this thread and in general miss understand probability by a large margin. Its what keeps casinos in business though. Yes as a general average most players that are preforming these missions on a regular basis will most likely end up with numbers in and around the started % chances... seeing people with slightly lower and some with slightly higher is normal....
However if you are the unlucky guy that pulls 90% green... it doesn't mean the system is broken. People often seem to forget that in practice each event is independent of all other events. So yes if you pull 90 greens in a row... that is perfectly possible and does not mean the system is broken in anyway.
Okay, point taken.
Pulling 90 greens in a row is possible. However, such an occurrence tends to be pretty unlikely, which is why this thread exists. It is to check whether the OP was, indeed, that unlucky person, or if the lousy odds were widespread. Based on the tests, most people seem to have found that the stated odds are in effect, and there really isn't a bug.