Thread: PvP concerns
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 12,194
# 82
01-19-2013, 07:29 PM
Originally Posted by thissler View Post

If damage was static you could actually account for avoidance. It would be trivial.
No, you couldn't. That's the point. Whether damage was static or it was not, you cannot account for avoidance. It's RNG. A 20% miss chance doesn't mean a 20% reduction in damage. It could mean anywhere from 0% to 100% reduction in damage. It's RNG. Every shot could miss, every shot could hit, or it could be somewhere between - most likely, it's going to be somewhere between.

It's one of the most commonly misunderstood things about probability. A 1:10 (10%) chance to win with a lottery ticket does not mean that you could buy ten tickets and one of them is going to be a winner. None of them could be winners, all of them might be winners, or there might be more than one winner. You've actually got better odds with the lottery ticket than you do with the straight up random chance we're talking about...because with those tickets, there are actually a certain number of guaranteed winning tickets. That's not the case with the to-hit roll chance. There's no guarantee that a certain number will hit. It's completely random.

An 80% chance to hit is better than 50/50, but it's not a guarantee that you're going to hit 8 out of 10 times - that you're going to hit 80 out of 100 times - that you're going to hit 800 out of 1000 times. Likewise, it's not a case that you're going to miss 2 out of 10, 20 out of 100, 200 out of 1000, etc, etc, etc.

You can make a guesstimate on the probable likelihood on the number of hits that will take place over a guesstimate of the number of shots that will be fired...but uh, no...that's not exactly approaching any level of accuracy.

Perhaps for a scripted PvE encounter, where you know the number of attacks that a mob will make within a given period of time in relation to what the party is doing against that mob - you can start to make better educated guesses on the role that avoidance will play... but it's still going to be an educated guess. In the end, it's still RNG. The dice might roll your way - they might not.

Originally Posted by thissler View Post
It isn't static, so your example is well. What is it really. I'm not quite sure. Are you simply taking a very small sample size and saying 'oh look i have exactly the results you would expect from a very small sample size!" So not sure what that was supposed to mean.
It's random sample showing a random sample. Do five sets of five sets - what are your results? Do fifty sets of fifty sets? Do five hundred sets of five hundred sets of five hundred sets of five hundred sets of five hundred sets... do five sets of fifty sets of five hundred sets of five thousand sets of fifty thousand sets of five hundred thousand sets... do 6 sets of 5 sets of 4 sets of 3 sets of 2 sets of 1 set...'s random.

It's one of the chief complaints from FPS players about MMO combat - the RNG.

Say Player A is in their BoP. They move into position on the target. They decloak. They time their BO and THY perfectly. Enter RNG. Maybe the BO misses. Maybe the THY misses. Maybe both miss. Maybe both hit. So Player A adds a Tractor to reduce Defense - to guarantee the Hit. No RNG. Course, depending on their timing - they might be telegraphing the attack by using the Tractor too soon. The target hits APO, PH, EM, etc, etc, etc - Player A has actually taken an action which may result in the target taking action that will increase the chance of missing and the attack failing. Thing is, it's back to RNG - both attacks could still land, could both miss, the BO might miss and the THY hit shields, or the BO might hit while the THY sails by to the left...

Originally Posted by thissler View Post
And that would be the first tip that you need to start over.
By showing that Avoidance can't be worked into an EHP formula... I need to start over showing that Avoidance can't be worked into an EHP formula? Er...

Originally Posted by thissler View Post
There really isn't that much else to consider first. You may say that's true, but it isn't. Just saying it doesn't make it so. Prove it. Show some reasoned thought that viral matrix is a key issue to address before defense can possibly be looked at succesfully. Just for example. Or that because there are some ships considered hybrids, that that makes it impossible to address this issue. Prove it. Reason it out for us. Don't just say so.
I'm starting to wonder if your replies to me actually aren't replies to me...

Originally Posted by thissler View Post
And I'm not sure where you're pulling out this one vs one or five vs one or whatever it is you think is being measured. That also isn't relevant to this issue.
The issue my example and post was in relation to...was trying to figure out how bareel was figuring Avoidance into an EHP formula - when EHP formulas are based on Health/Mitigation. So is it not relevant?

Again, I'm seriously wondering what your reply is actually to...

Originally Posted by thissler View Post
If people are talking about tanking, well I guess that's an indication of a little bit of derailing of all the fine points you say are being made previously. It isn't about tanking. It's about how the game handles outgoing damage and incoming damage. It isn't JUST escort vs cruisers. Not sure where you got that either. This was all clearly defined one thread ago. Why is this getting off track once again? Its very simple. Don't overcomplicate it.
Hrmmm... so from the first post in this thread:

Originally Posted by devorasx View Post
Remove defense value tied to speed

In light of Thisslers thread regarding defense, i have to concure. Speed tied to defense should be removed as it gives escorts superiority in both defense and offense. They already deal ALOT of damage, then why the blazes is it too given the best defense value as well? That just doesnt make sense at all, and is turning STO to Escort Online. The defense value should not be removed from the game but rather given a fixed value based on ship class. This would balance out defense between ships. Actually it will make engineers in cruisers more valuable, and not sitting ducks to a tractor beaming escort taking down a cruiser in a split second, because his defense was reduced to 0 due to no speed.
Defense value. Defense being part of tanking. Escorts. Cruisers.

Yep, right there in the first post of the thread.

Hope that clears that up for you...
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