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Republic Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 239
# 9
01-28-2013, 06:36 PM
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
Surely u must agree with me that somethign isent right here?
In terms of getting a string of bad luck, I sympathize, but it's a real part of almost all games.

In terms of advertising, it would be nice if Cryptic actually posted probabilities, but they are not legally bound to do so and it's not in their business interests to do so. Also, users would still be unhappy because the math is a bit tricky.

Suppose the probability of getting a lockbox ship was announced to be 0.5% (1/200). Most people would just turn that upside down and assume that they only needed to spend $200 to get one. However, in actuality, there is a whopping 37% (.995^200) chance you will get 0 ships for that $200.

I think, in the end, the fact that you can just buy ships for Lobi was a decent answer. There is an upper bound of $360 you'd have to spend to get a Dreadnaught Carrier (less if there is a Zen/Key sale).

In either case, I'm also risk averse, so I will always choose the EC route.