View Single Post
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 107
# 32 Said simply
02-06-2013, 11:42 PM
So trying to paraphrase the excellent statistical theory here for the laymen or an Eighth grade education (ok, or myself):

You would expect that if all drops have an equal chance, that the results would be about the same number of each console dropping +/- a few. This can be in a category of consoles (Sci, Eng, Tac) or across all 42 consoles.

The observed results on a universe of 300 items shows that it's not distributed evenly, or even close to evenly.

Therefore, you conclude something is off in the probabilities.

That seems pretty clear and compelling.

It seems very improbable that this distribution would occur on 300 runs of the mission, if all consoles have an even chance of dropping.

The suggestion of reviewing the recorded results of the Children's Toys mission drop data seems like a good place to look to dispel the "it's just bad luck of random number generators" theory.

Or maybe Cryptic could run the mission 25,000 times internally or on Tribble and see if the results show a 1/42 drop rate for each console? I'm sure the community would find that data interesting to review.

It sounds like a Beam Fire at Will coding search for the community and the devs to work together on!