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Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 437
# 42
02-07-2013, 08:06 AM
Originally Posted by diogene0 View Post
You forgot something extremely important: the human factor. As a geography teacher myself i'm not completely new to probabilities, but to understand this you often need to get your head out of the %, especially if humans are involved. Here it's not just coins you're flipping in an ideal environment.

This game has 2M players. I'm too lazy to make the math now, but with this amount of players, you'll get obviously a significant amount of unlucky people. These people will tend to come on the forums more often than the happy ones, and they will post together in such threads to complain.

I'm not saying that everything is fine and that it wouldn't require further studies, but this topic whehe 10 or 20 people complain is clearly not enough to say that there's something wrong. Because these 10 people could very well be among the most unlucky guys in the game. As a general rule, when people have the freedom of speech, they will use it to voice their concerns before saying what's fine for them, if they ever say it.
The human factor should not apply here because each event is independent of the other. One console craft = 1 roll one the loot table and my roll does not affect yours. Therefore it is just a "coin-flip". Unless the developers have constructed such a complex loot system where everyone's action affect others. Yes, you can have unlucky "streaks" but the probability of having such an unlucky streak is minuscule in some of those tests. With 300 replicates, the OP's data, if accurate, do not portray a uniform drop-rate.