I got to thinking this morning as I was driving in to work...
* After the destruction of Vulcan, Spock estimated there were only 10,000 Vulcans left.
* Due to their pon farr cycles, Vulcans would have a slow rate of reproduction.
* The Romulans of that time period were in favor of reunification by force.
* Assuming the invasion was put off until the time Sela appeared in the mid 2300's as in TNG, there's probably no more than 20,000 Vulcans at the time of the invasion.
Conclusion: The Romulans will roll over the Vulcans and conquer New Vulcan.
I realize the statement is canon to the JJTrek-verse, but this 10,000 number just doesn't make sense IMHO. Vulcan has been a space-faring society for 5,000 years. That length of time should establish populations long living off-world, even if numerous small villages or colonies. It has embassies on all Fed planets, its own fleet of ships, not to mention every Vulcan privately employed off-world as traders, scientists, or what not. With all that in consideration, I would think the number should be significantly higher. I would not think it inconceivable after 5,000 years of space flight that the population would exceed 1 million. As good as Spock is with calculations, it is just his statement. The finally tally might have proved higher. New Vulcan, however, might only have 10,000, and the bulk of the population would be scattered.
I've heard talk both ways, but I was always under the impression that the pon farr cycle was the point at which Vulcan had to mate, not the only time they could. If this is what Gene intended, then there could be many more Vulcans. It would also be entirely logical to find ways to stimulate their cycle early and often to rebuild their race.
If Vulcan stood alone, yes, I could see the Romulans dominating. However, New Vulcan is backed by the might of the Federation, and I cannot see it leaving its most vulnerable member undefended.
I think you forgot the United Federation of Planets.
I didn't forget them, I just thought that based on Sela's comment in TNG that they would be "deeply entrenched" by the time Starfleet was able to respond in the prime universe, they would be even more deeply entrenched with so little resistance.
Also, since an invasion in the mid 2300's would have been close to a century after the destruction of Vulcan, the Vulcans may no longer be one of the primary races in the UFP and no longer one of the core worlds.
As to the Mirror Universe comments, from what we've seen, the JJ'verse seems to track a lot closer to the prime reality than the mirror universe, which by definition was created to be the opposite of the prime universe, so I don't think it's out of the question that things could unfold similarly in the JJ verse.
at least they admitted it. Now they should go back with a bit of CGI and re-recording and state a higher number, whenever they get round to a special edition version. A low number may have significant implications in any future alt-universe Trek.
Just do the math. If there are 10,000 Vulcans and they each have children, you get a population growth rate of about .07 per year. That means within 100 years, you will have nearly 10 million Vulcans. Of course, Vulcans do not reproduce at the age of seven and not every Vulcan will be fertile, so the number might be generous, but still that is quite a few Vulcans.
Now, Vulcans are logical people. They know they need to reproduce quickly and in a genetically diverse faction. They may be willing to use artificial insemination. If they are having children every one or two years and reproducing at sexual maturity, they will, for all practical matters, have nearly an unlimited supply of Vulcans within a century.
Of course, to reproduce so quickly you need a lot of energy. Resources like food, medical care, clean water, et cetera might limit population growth, although presumably the Federation would be handling that.