1) This is not the largest IP in sci-fi, though its definately a front runner.
2) It will not 'fail' (depending on your definition). It will live on for many years, most likely hovering in the 300,000-ish active player range. Its a niche game (as soon as design considerations have to be made for a 3rd part IP, you are by definition in the niche realm), so it will have niche numbers.
3) Both Crytpic and Atari have already made a profit off this, it's a win for them no matter what.
4) Future sales will not depend on STO, if the SWG snafu didn't sink SOE, this will not sink Crytpic or Atari
5) I am no fanboi of either Cryptic (by a LONG shot, they make simple/shallow games and have very poor design standards) OR ST. You can see my post history for evidence of both of those. So there is no bias here either way.