I have personally spoken with about a dozen players. That is not a lot, but it is more than enough for me.
Produce some reliable evidence that suggests these messages are anything but accurate reports of Galor class vessels created and then we can talk. I am sorry, but you will need some compelling evidence for this conspiracy theory before I put any effort into it. What you see here is already almost 3 solid days worth of work. This is far more than I wanted to spend on the project and no time really spent enjoying my weekend.
You're work is appreciated
I also sent congrats messages to anyone I see receiving the Galor ship... I have yet to receive any reply like "what are you talking about", and that's after about 40-50 of these congrats messages. The vast majority said thanks, and only a couple people didnt reply (possibly due to replying to other pms )
It only matters to the calculation of the average cost. If I buy 10 keys with the 900 c-point "discount" , and an 11th key on the exchange for 1.3 million EC, then I still only paid $11.25 for all my keys -- restricting the calculation to keys purchased via the C-Store by the hypothetical person trying to get the Galor simply makes it easier to calculate the average cost to that end-user. You're absolutely right though in your point that every master key does represent real money spent in the C-Store for keys by someone, at least, as that's the only way to acquire keys in the initial stage (i.e. before they reach the exchange) -- this is true even if the keys were purchased with C-points that came off the dilithium exchange, since someone still had to buy the C-points in the first place (although I suppose, in an absurd world, all c-points that hit the dilithium exchange could come from lifetime sub stipends, but that's way too far off track for this :p )
That would only be true if one purchased keys one at a time rather than through the 10-packs at 900 Cpoints, which essentially give a "free" key to the purchaser as a reward for buying in bulk. WIth the "discount" offered in the key 10-packs, the price per key becomes $1.125, and $1.125 * 200 = $225. If the keys are bought one at a time, for 100 C-points each, then the price per key is $1.25, and $1.25 * 200 = $250. When making the calculations in the first place I tried to give the most realistic scenario possible for if someone were opening the normal, green (uncommon) Cardassian lock boxes and purchasing keys from the C-Store with real currency to do it. I doubt there are many people who, in order to get the Galor, buy a whole bunch of keys one at a time. After noticing how often the boxes drop and paying to open a few of them, I imagine most everyone realizes that it saves money to buy the keys in bulk rather than as single items (if they sensibly anticipate having to open more than just a couple additional boxes in order to get what they want), and end up purchasing the 10-pack.
The entrance of master keys and especially a discount bundle into the equation is what separates this situation from that of the Jem'hadar ship during the Winter Wonderland event. I don't remember all the circumstances of the winter event, but I don't believe there was a discounted bundle of present boxes or whatever the hell they were. If there was such a discount, and it was functionally identical to the discount on the master keys (e.g. 10 gift boxes for 900 c-points or 1 gift box for 100 c-points), then the calculations that led to the average cost of the Jem'hadar ship being $250 were arguably flawed, for the reasons mentioned in the above paragraph.
In either case ($225 or $250), the number is extremely high to me for a ship that, while I think it's cool, wouldn't cost even 10% of that if put on the C-Store as a ship purchasable in the standard manner.
Anyway, as Dunnlang is implying, this is just a statistical analysis with projections extrapolated from it. It's not meant to give an exact figure for how many Galor ships there are, how difficult they are to obtain, or how much people are spending to get them. It's just intended to provide a general, broad picture of what the situation with Cardassian lock boxes and Galor ships looks like overall, across all of STO. Likewise, my projection of the "average cost" of a Galor ship being $225 isn't intended to mean that it will cost anyone $225 to get one -- some people might pay more, and there are definitely people who have paid far less (someone told me in DS9 zone chat that he won 2 Galor ships in 4 boxes; whether or not he was telling the truth, that's entirely possible, if extremely unlikely). The $225 number is merely an expected average cost based on the statistically-estimated drop rate Dunnlang figured on one hand, and so-called "rational" consumption (i.e. buying in bulk when one either expects to be needing much of a product, or has already made enough single purchases to realize it's more financially sound to buy in bulk) on the other.
Thanks, I had completely forgotten about the bulk discount of keys at 10 keys for 900 CP. Since I was not participating in the actual lock box event itself, I missed that new detail.
I would suggest that many do not switch over to the bulk key pack right away. No one wants to be sitting on 9 keys after they win the ship. This is probably impossible to measure on our end, but may bump the average back up to $230 to $240. Again, this assumes the same drop rate as the Jem'Hadar ship.
I usually manage to see one Typhoon warped in as fleet support every 1 to 2 days.
I even see a bug once in a very very great while.
I have not seen a single Galor since they became available.
That's the beauty of this whole lottery system. The ships are not necessarily going to people who want or need them. Last I checked, there were quite a few on the Exchange. Many of the newer players may have gotten one and are nowhere near RA. Others may not have wanted to re-build their characters right before the FE launch.
Again, I'm only predicting 1,500 or so ships now. Given the above factors, you might not see too many. Eventually it will probably even out and you will see more than you see of the Jem'Hadar ship.