Go Back   Star Trek Online > Feedback > Federation Gameplay
Login

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Lieutenant
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 33
# 11
08-06-2012, 04:24 PM
Crap, that means I am just totally unlucky and need to quit with the special ships and only buy the ones that can be put on all chars. Can't believe people get that freaking lucky. But it took that much to get enough to even buy the carrier which really pisses me off. I am only averaging 4 lobi per box and the carrier wasn't even close to worth it. Might do better on my SCI but can't change it over to test it out. What about the other guys idea, you can transfer it but it is still 1 ship. That would work as well.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 8,388
# 12
08-06-2012, 04:37 PM
I have only opened 2 Tholian Lockboxes so I do not have enough information about the current system - I'm just not interested in the Tholian ship - but I was under the assumption that you could sell the Tholian ship on the Exchange, as long as you didn't open the crate it was in. If you can sell it you can certainly send it to another of your characters if you don't open it.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 33
# 13
08-06-2012, 04:58 PM
I ran into the problem after opening it. But I like to start chars now and again and have even deleted some of my high level ones to make room. Don't want to get into a situation where I can no longer use a ship I spent allot of money on just because I played it for 5 months and decide I want to play another toon.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 232
# 14
08-06-2012, 05:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecosmic1 View Post
Most people have multiple alts and want the Lockbox ships for them as well - that was the whole point of your thread: getting the ships on more then 1 character. So people keep buying Keys even after they win a ship, not only for the Lobi but because they want a second ship - maybe for an alt or maybe just to sell on the Exchange.

And yes, Keys are cheap. For every person who spends $100.00 on Keys there's someone else who won the ship only spending $1.25. It's all about averages on Cryptic's side. For example, everyone I know who's won one of the ships did so by spending less then $10.00 to get it. I have a friend who bought 5 Keys and won 2 ships from those 5. Cryptic knows exactly what that average is.

So yes, if I could spend $5.00 and get a new Tholian ship for all my alts, I would certainly do it - and there's nothing major in the Lobi store to keep my paying $1.25 for 4 Lobi Crystals once all my alts have the ship. I know I'm not alone in that; and that means less Lockbox sales for Cryptic in the long-term.
What you're listing there are the most common gambler's lies.
"I only played three times and won the jackpot" kind of lies.
Sometimes they are half-thruths (they only played three times THAT DAY), usually though they are flat out lies trying to cover shame about gambling activities, attempts to cover up how much of a problem they really have. Only VERY, VERY RARELY these numbers are true.

For STO Lockboxes, we can actually estimate the probability for a ship pretty well.
- Cryptic explained that a key costing 100 CP would on average yield 170 CP worth of unlocks.
- Let's assume that each lockbox contains either
a) a ship, worth 2000 CP, or
b) random crap valued at 50 CP
(that's a VERY, VERY optimistic way of looking at it, ignoring the value of Lobi and undervalueing the random crap - Cryptic probably values it much higher. Thus, we get a HIGH estimate for ship probability, the real one should be quite a bit lower still)
- this would yield a ship in 6.15% of lockboxes, and random crap in 93.85% of them ... or a ship every 16.26 lockboxes, or 20$ on average.

Again, this is a HIGH estimate.
A lower, probably more realistic estimate (crap valued at 120 CP) would only yield a ship at 2.66%, or 37.6 lockboxes, or 47$.
And that's still not the low estimate, if you think of stuff like unique weapons and consoles or less desireable ships like currently the mirror universe cruisers ... then numbers of less than 1% / 100 boxes / 125$ don't really look too unrealistic, either.

No matter what, people saying they got their ship in less than 10 boxes are either very lucky ... or, a lot more probable, lieing to avoid seeming like a degenerate gambler who just spent three-digit dollars on a bunch of pixels in a free-to-play game.

That's the math.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 8,388
# 15
08-06-2012, 05:32 PM
I happened to be playing with my friend when he won the 2 ships on 5 Keys - we're always on Teamspeak together and he's one of my oldest friends in the world. He's also jobless at this time and doesn't have the money to $25.00 into Keys. But believe whatever you want.

I, personally, have only used 15 Keys since the Lockboxes started. I've never won a ship but the 4 other people I play with every day have all won several ships. None of them were spending hundreds of dollars like the OP to do so.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 33
# 16
08-06-2012, 05:48 PM
Okay, this is not the first ship I have tried to get. I got the bug ship and spent a ton getting it as well. How in the world can you have mutiple friends that lucky? And since they are so lucky tell them I will give them $30 in Zen for 1 ship please! Or i'll buy them whatever they want to get to the $30 in Zen price since I have never tried to transfer points to another account before. Can you do that?
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 8,388
# 17
08-06-2012, 06:00 PM
I'm sure there are people in my Fleet who have dumped $100.00 into the system and not won ships. That's just the way averages work. But all of my friends I play with daily have multiple ships. Of course most of us don't actually buy a lot of Keys. We play several hours every day and we acquire Dilithium, which is then used to buy Keys. I have over 15,000 Zen and could buy around 130 Keys without paying a cent of real money. Who knows how many ships I might get out of 130 keys.

I just sent out a Fleet email and told everyone to let me know how many Lockbox ships they currently have won so far. There's 127 people in my Fleet. I'll post the answer after most of them respond.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 232
# 18
08-06-2012, 06:12 PM
*sigh* ...
"luck" is the other side of probability.
Getting 2/5 has to happen at times. Very rarely, but it has to happen. Even 5/5 probably happened to someone already. It's just VERY, VERY, VERY, VERY ... VERY LUCKY.
And if you witnessed it, I have no reason to disbelief you in THIS ONE CASE ... well, no extra reason beside this being the internet, and every word from everyone being suspect. But no specific reason. Tell your friend excactly how lucky he was, and congratulate him.

What I'm arguing against is NOT that one special case - as I already said, that has to happen, too, just as 5/5, or just as 0/500 have to happen.
I'm telling you that generalizing from a single issue of being lucky and ignoring the math leads to extremly bad advice.

Ships DON'T generall drop like 1/5. Even 1/50 is still pretty optimistic. For the tholian ships, less than 1/100 looks a lot more realistic.


Whether you want to play that game or not ... well, that's your choice. You now have an idea of the odds. If you're able of making responsible decisions and feel like it's worth your money, go ahead and spent some. If not ... then abstain, and either get a ship from the exchange ... or abstain. Easy. (Well, not so easy for some, but that's complusive behavior, and people suffering from that should think about talking to a specialist.)


Oh, and as nobody mentioned it yet: These ships are supposed to be VERY rare. CBS, who have a say on everything done with their IP, have decreed that these ships should not be generally available. They don't want everyone flying around in non-Fed/non-KDF ships.
So, the lockbox approach is actually reasonable, and limiting the ships to single characters is also reasonable.

What we could discuss, though it might lead into questions of ethics that are outside the scope of this forum, is
a) if they are priced fairly. Though ... in the end, this comes down to a question of supply and demand. And the demand, as it is, certainly justifies the price.
b) if you should have a gambling system at all in a game that's not restricted to responsible adults. Gambling sites don't have age restrictions for no reason, 21+ in the US, 18+ in most european countries. And offering such a lockbox system could well turn out to be in violation of either region's laws for gambling and/or youth protection. But that'd be for a court to decide, AFAIK there's no precedent for this.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 227
# 19
08-06-2012, 09:45 PM
I've opened roughly 60-70 lock boxes between Tholian and Ferengi and gotten 4 ships, 1 Jem Bug Ship(which I sold for a ridiculous amount of ECs and have been gearing all 5 of my toons with ever since) and 3 of the Mirror Ships(1 AC, 2 SC). That's right around 6% chance so far. Honestly I don't really get the big deal about the ships, half the time the special consoles you can get are better anyways and it's nice to be able to buy the dual batteries with lobi crystals.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 33
# 20
08-07-2012, 12:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dashuk2381 View Post
I've opened roughly 60-70 lock boxes between Tholian and Ferengi and gotten 4 ships, 1 Jem Bug Ship(which I sold for a ridiculous amount of ECs and have been gearing all 5 of my toons with ever since) and 3 of the Mirror Ships(1 AC, 2 SC). That's right around 6% chance so far. Honestly I don't really get the big deal about the ships, half the time the special consoles you can get are better anyways and it's nice to be able to buy the dual batteries with lobi crystals.
You only got 1 rare ship. Those other 3 are a dime a dozen. So sick of seeing those things. This thread was more about letting you switch the box ships from toon to toon on the same account. This thread instead convinced me spending any money for these ships is just a waist and pretty stupid. If I do get a ship then I can never start that class/char over again since I opened a ship on it. If I do start another char then I completely waisted any money I used to get the ship. Like right now I have a bug ship that isn't opened. If I would have used that bug ship on my main tac captain I would no longer be using it again since I started a Caitian tac officer. I like my Caitain Tac officer loads better then my orginal tac. What if Cryptic comes out with another species I want to try? Either way you go, using boxes = screwed.
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 11:41 PM.