Star Trek Online Error (probability bug) in childrens toys missions
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Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 41
12-12-2012, 08:01 AM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by antoniosalieri To be frank your understanding of probability is lacking.... don't feel bad most people don't understand much beyond the basic concepts.
LOL, My understanding of propability is perfectly fine. Your understanding of why we did this apears to be lacking. This simply shows that the programs is not bugged as most people think in the area of the probability. If I did this a thousand times it's still going to come up to 24/52/24. In all, the only thing I have doubts about is the chance of getting something good, but the results shown indicate that if the program does lean towards the junk it's not much of a lean.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,566
# 42
12-12-2012, 06:42 PM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by antoniosalieri Bottom line... is if it says 40% purple... that DOES NOT mean that 4 out of 10 will be purple. To be frank your understanding of probability is lacking.... don't feel bad most people don't understand much beyond the basic concepts. A basic assumption in probability theory is that each event is independent of all other events. That is, previous draws have no influence on the next draw. So really because you pulled 1000 greens doesn't mean you are anymore likely to land a purple on your next try then; you had on the first of the 1000 greens you pulled. Even if the purple chance was 99% it would be unlikely you would pull 999 out of 1000 purples.
Yes, it does not mean you will get 40% purple. However, this probability means that chances are you will get an answer close to 40%, if you do multiple attempts. Assuming a binomial distribution (all trials independent, success/failure only), you will get a bell-shaped curve with the highest probability at 40% successes. The curve's spread will be less wide as number of trials increases. So, yes, the probability of getting exactly 40 may be pretty small. However, the chances of getting close to 40% successes is definitely quite high, compared to getting anything else.

Oh yeah, and 99% with 1000 attempts gives 990 successes as mean.

Quote:
 The issue with this thread is 20% DOES not ever = 20 in 100.... that is a possible outcome, however there is more math we could use that would show how small the chances of landing on 20 of 100 would be. lol
Yeah, you'll get a pretty small chance of landing on exactly 20 out of 100. However, what we're doing here is getting values close to 20, which is a perfectly legitimate way of testing the actual probability of success, due to the bell curve shape. Also, despite the probability of landing on 20 being small, the probability of landing on any other number is even smaller.

TL;DR: You've got a few problems with understanding probability yourself.
Captain
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 4,742
# 43
12-12-2012, 08:13 PM
My only point is, that it seems many people in this thread and in general miss understand probability by a large margin. Its what keeps casinos in business though. Yes as a general average most players that are preforming these missions on a regular basis will most likely end up with numbers in and around the started % chances... seeing people with slightly lower and some with slightly higher is normal....

However if you are the unlucky guy that pulls 90% green... it doesn't mean the system is broken. People often seem to forget that in practice each event is independent of all other events. So yes if you pull 90 greens in a row... that is perfectly possible and does not mean the system is broken in anyway.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,566
# 44
12-12-2012, 09:33 PM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by antoniosalieri My only point is, that it seems many people in this thread and in general miss understand probability by a large margin. Its what keeps casinos in business though. Yes as a general average most players that are preforming these missions on a regular basis will most likely end up with numbers in and around the started % chances... seeing people with slightly lower and some with slightly higher is normal.... However if you are the unlucky guy that pulls 90% green... it doesn't mean the system is broken. People often seem to forget that in practice each event is independent of all other events. So yes if you pull 90 greens in a row... that is perfectly possible and does not mean the system is broken in anyway.
Okay, point taken. Pulling 90 greens in a row is possible. However, such an occurrence tends to be pretty unlikely, which is why this thread exists. It is to check whether the OP was, indeed, that unlucky person, or if the lousy odds were widespread. Based on the tests, most people seem to have found that the stated odds are in effect, and there really isn't a bug.
Captain
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 4,742
# 45
12-12-2012, 11:02 PM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by scurry5 Okay, point taken. Pulling 90 greens in a row is possible. However, such an occurrence tends to be pretty unlikely, which is why this thread exists. It is to check whether the OP was, indeed, that unlucky person, or if the lousy odds were widespread. Based on the tests, most people seem to have found that the stated odds are in effect, and there really isn't a bug.
Ya fair enough.. I popped 50 mil ec in keys the other day to open some boxes... no ships and 1 or 2 half decent items... a friend opened 5 boxes and pulled 2 ships... what can ya do, in my case certainly not visit any casinos any time soon. lol

Now having said that I do wonder how the system deals with item selection, beyond the simple purple blue green. In my experience if I pull one item I am likely to pull the same item again with in a short amount of time. From talking to people it seems the system selects items a small time frame at a time... I know a few times when I have pulled say a blue doff 2 in a row... in a lot of cases they end up being the same doff.... Same effect seems to happen with lock boxes.... with the Toy missions I know it would be hard to quickly complete multiple missions on alts... still makes me wonder.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 46
12-13-2012, 11:18 AM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by antoniosalieri My only point is, that it seems many people in this thread and in general miss understand probability by a large margin.
I guess I'll put in in laymans terms.

The point is not whether 24/52/24 will be 24/52/24, the point is 'Is the game cheating?'

Anotherwords, are the stated 24/52/24 really the odds or is it something else all together?

It would seem that after 100 roles in the test the results came very close to the 24/52/24.

If we did 1000 roles it would probably come to exactly 24/52/24.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 146
# 47
12-21-2012, 06:25 PM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by roejspinodji The probabilty calculations shown for retrieving a console from the powered alien artefact do not match with the result. Something is pretty badly wrong here.... I have 24 % probability for purple, 51 for blue and 25 for green. So actually around every 4th console should be purple. However, after trying out around 200 times (to really see, if it is a bug or not) I can say that around 9 % is purple, 44 % blue and 47% green. Pretty annoying...... Please Cryptic get it fixed.... I have reported this error earlier, but unfortunately so far no response, change or anything....
I didn't think it was like that. Take the example of having a 24 almost 25% chance. Say you have a 4 sided die. You could, in theory, NEVER roll a 4, but you would eventually after many many tries. Take for example flipping a coin (there are three outcomes, but let's just say just heads tails) each flip is independent of the last one, 50/50 each and every time.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 45
# 48
12-21-2012, 11:34 PM
Any kind of discussion on the odds of any outcome in this game cannot be had unless the people involved have taken a course in statistics.

Short of getting actual results and calculating the outcome you can't really prove it either way. And if your numbers don't come close to the stated odds you can always blame a small sample size (Although this would be very unlikely)

It takes a college 4 months to teach this subject and even then some people don't get it. I doubt a forum post explaining probabilities will be sufficient.

Good work on getting the numbers for everyone Jake.
Career Officer
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 62
# 49
02-04-2013, 08:38 PM
I have my first set of 24/52/24 doff with essential trait. I just began my first try and got one green, engineering console. My second try, I got a purple tactical disruptor induction coil. Since I have few resources, this will be a slow process. Nonetheless, I will be keeping the 100 tests on an excel file.
-- Vice Admiral's log, stardate 57134.2
... I began to panic and asked my human companion of the meaning of toon. He replied that it was something that was not real. I protested to him that I was walking and running and killing. What did he mean that I was not real? He replied that everyone knew the universe was a computer simulation. Occasionally, he had to accompany another toon too.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 50
05-02-2013, 07:43 PM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by overthetopsigh Good work on getting the numbers for everyone Jake.
Your welcome, it cost me millions in EC that I could have made by just selling the powered artifacts. I haven't wasted a PA since completing the runs. All now go to the exchange.

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