Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 441
# 11
01-28-2013, 07:43 PM
This was stated here: http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/an...php?f=118&a=81

Quote:
Q: What are the odds for getting each of the rewards in the Lock Box?
A: We are not providing exact numbers the prizes contained within the Dominion Lock Box. The average value for a normal Lock Box is around 175 Zen.
So yeah, it was a known fact that Cryptic wouldn't be posting the odds. A rough estimate is at the STOWiki, but it's a rough estimate only.
****
Lagging, D/Cing, or rubberbanding? Here's some help.

Current ships: A lot. RTR 15 National Championships....and counting
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 168
# 12
01-28-2013, 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
Thanks for the reply Corgatag I have 780 Lobi crystals and 4 keys left if I get to 800 Ill buy a dreadnaught but im not buying any more keys without a good explanation from sto as to why I havent got one

Surely u must agree with me that somethign isent right here?
dude, I hate it when people assume that they are entitled to get the grand prize from a lock box based purely on the number of lock boxes that they have opened. Seriously, you underestimate the sheer probability involved in the random number generator.

You cited people who have opened 20 Dominion Lock Boxes and gotten the Jem'hadar Heavy Escort Carrier... well I have opened a grand total of FOUR dominion lock boxes in my entire time playing and I got the ship on my third box in. You appear to have opened significantly more than the average number would indicate, but that is par for the course when a Digital Random Number Generator is involved.

Each box opened has a random percentile chance of probably around 1 to 5% to give you the ship in question. Each box opened rolls that percentile chance independently of all other boxes. So if all of the boxes you opened missed that 1 to 5% chance at having a ship in it, then you won't get a ship no matter how many boxes you open.

Same holds true if you somehow miraculously roll the 1 to 5% chance on the very first box that you open. Digital Random Number Generators that are programed properly come the closest to being perfectly random that people can actually get in this world without invoking Cthulu himself.
______________________________
Ensign
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 24
# 13
01-28-2013, 09:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by helixsunbringer View Post
dude, I hate it when people assume that they are entitled to get the grand prize from a lock box based purely on the number of lock boxes that they have opened. Seriously, you underestimate the sheer probability involved in the random number generator.

You cited people who have opened 20 Dominion Lock Boxes and gotten the Jem'hadar Heavy Escort Carrier... well I have opened a grand total of FOUR dominion lock boxes in my entire time playing and I got the ship on my third box in. You appear to have opened significantly more than the average number would indicate, but that is par for the course when a Digital Random Number Generator is involved.

Each box opened has a random percentile chance of probably around 1 to 5% to give you the ship in question. Each box opened rolls that percentile chance independently of all other boxes. So if all of the boxes you opened missed that 1 to 5% chance at having a ship in it, then you won't get a ship no matter how many boxes you open.

Same holds true if you somehow miraculously roll the 1 to 5% chance on the very first box that you open. Digital Random Number Generators that are programed properly come the closest to being perfectly random that people can actually get in this world without invoking Cthulu himself.

And you find the fact that someone can almost spend the cost of a lifetime membership opening box's and not get 1 purple acceptable...

Gimme a break dude thats profiteering on cryptics part it should be capped at a certain number before it has to drop a purple for you (especially when they dont offer the option of simply buying it from c store. you have to take a chance at getting one)

if you think the above is fine or par for the course and acceptable I have no desire to speak with you further.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 538
# 14
01-28-2013, 09:48 PM
1% to 5% is too high. Someone did an analysis and the actual number is probably closer to between 0.2% and 2%.
Ensign
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 24
# 15
01-28-2013, 09:53 PM
why are half the people reading this missing the point entirely


I couldent care less what the odds are and im not saying that you should ever hit that 1-5% 0.2% watever

Im saying that when its a GAME! and you have to pay to gamble for a particular item
It should be capped at a certain amount spent before it gives u the drop regardless


dont forget this is for an in game item and u have to pay for a roll of the dice its not like your gambeling to get your money back or make money


some of you are looking at this totaly wrong wake up!
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,413
# 16
01-28-2013, 10:00 PM
I get it.
I really do.
But the fact is , the lockboxes run off a random number generator.
Random.
You could open a thousand boxes and never see a ship.

I am sorry that this happened to you. This exact same thread (more or less) has popped up with every lockbox, because this is how the lockboxes work. Randomly.

Most of us at this point have learned that simply selling the damned keys gets you the prize you want faster. That's because we've seen what has happened to you happen time and again.

Again, sorry this happened to you, but telling us to wake up. Man, we woke up 3 lockboxes ago, welcome to the party.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,413
# 17
01-28-2013, 10:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
(especially when they dont offer the option of simply buying it from c store. you have to take a chance at getting one)
This is the part you might not be putting together. You don't have to take the chance. You choose to. You have opened how many boxes ? I'm guessing close to 150, so I'm going to say 150.

150 Keys * 1.35Million EC each(Avg going rate) = 202,500,000 ec. That's more than enough to afford the ship you were looking for and a full set of awesome new shiny phasey polorons , or whatever else it was you wanted from the lockbox.

It's mostly all there.
On the exchange.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 989
# 18
01-28-2013, 10:11 PM
Random Number Generator is random. Lady Luck is fickle. You just got unlucky. Etc, etc. It's a gamble when you open a lockbox. You need to realize that: A. GAMBLE. Cryptic made this quite clear in the FAQ about the lockboxes.

The probability of getting the big prize is very low. I haven't seen a study of this lockbox yet. But if past box probability distributions are the same, the chance of getting a ship is 1 in 200 or 0.5%. Imagine flipping a coin 8 times in a row, and the coin coming up heads ever time (heads 8 time on a row). The odds of getting your ship is slightly better (0.5% vs 0.39%).

Last edited by lordfuzun; 01-28-2013 at 10:20 PM.
Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 441
# 19
01-29-2013, 12:48 AM
So, basically what it boils down to is this: I pay a ridiculous amount of money, Cryptic should just GIVE me the ship, ffs!!.

Am I right or did I miss something?
****
Lagging, D/Cing, or rubberbanding? Here's some help.

Current ships: A lot. RTR 15 National Championships....and counting
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 168
# 20
01-29-2013, 12:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
And you find the fact that someone can almost spend the cost of a lifetime membership opening box's and not get 1 purple acceptable...

Gimme a break dude thats profiteering on cryptics part it should be capped at a certain number before it has to drop a purple for you (especially when they dont offer the option of simply buying it from c store. you have to take a chance at getting one)

if you think the above is fine or par for the course and acceptable I have no desire to speak with you further.
Keep in mind that each lock box you open is a unique item in the games code separate from each and every other lock box that you open. Thus each time you open a lock box a new copy of the lock box program runs to determine what the contents of that individual lock box are. These individual instances of the lock box program are not tied to each other, thus it is impossible for the coding of the game to figure out that you have opened X number of lock boxes and thus are for some unseen reason supposed to be guaranteed a ship. There is a reason that this is called a random number generator, and that reason is because despite all the odds, someone is going to have the bad luck to pull all the wrong numbers and not get the grand prize even after spending more money than a lifetime subscription is worth.

The only reason I am opening lock boxes is because I want the Lobi Crystals at the moment. Not because of the stupid prize ship inside the lock boxes. That and because there are some other good items in the Ferengi Lock Boxes that I would like to get my hands on as well aside from just the Galor class, but getting a Galor Class would be nice non the less. But most of the boxes I am opening are the more recent ones that drop Lobi Crystals, and that is because there are some items in the Lobi Store I desperately want.
______________________________
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:31 AM.