Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 371
# 41
02-04-2013, 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dracounguis View Post
Damn, you've bought alot of keys.
Glad someone has the disposable income to find out this stuff.
Actually, most of those came from the exchange. There's no way I'm paying that much $$$ for lockbox keys!
Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 325
# 42
02-04-2013, 05:15 PM
Quote:
I don't think it's proof. You'd need to get into the code for that. But it is a good indication that the odds generator for it may be skewed to the low side.
Thats proof enough for me, and i'm saying that as a programmer that works with more random number generators than I care to think about. I'm well aware of how to skew them, as you put it. And frankly you just described an effort at hard coding them to be rigged.

Quote:
We've figured out past drop rates, but nothing is forcing Cryptic to keep the same odds. For all we know they could be altering the drop rates from week to week or box to box. We really have no way of knowing besides someone doing this kind of thing.
That would be a blatant scam and very illegal. Cryptic would have alot of explaining to do if anyone got it in their head to make an issue of it. It would be very easy to argue that they were exploiting people intentionally and secretly by doing such a thing. They aren't that stupid

Quote:
Jack, you're absolutely right that expecting specific rewards from the lockboxes is a recipe for disappointing. Like you, the only prize I count on is the Lobi and doff packs... if I get a rare prize on top of that I look at it as a bonus.
Except that they are sold on the concept of winning one of the rewards being the point of buying them, not for lobi crystals. That should then be a red flag

Quote:
Hmm bad luck OP?
For the record, there is no such thing as luck or true randomness in a 'random' generator based reward system. Any programmer will tell you that
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 401
# 43
02-04-2013, 07:48 PM
Well this is my plan, i will keep opening boxes (with keys bought with dilithium) until i get enough lobi for buying a few things I want from the store. If I got the Heavy escort carrier before hitting my lobi goal, fine then.
If i don't get the escort carrier, the i will buy keys an sell them in the exchange until i can buy it from the exchange
In every time,
in every place,
the deeds of men
remain the same...

Last edited by kaiserkacto; 02-04-2013 at 07:53 PM.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 132
# 44
02-04-2013, 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by humblesheep View Post
100 Lockboxes, (cost 990,000 Dilithium for the keys, exchanging at 88:1) wanted a Jem?Hadar Heavy Escort Carrier. Didnt get it.

Did Get:

Liked:
Purple Doffs: 3,
Bio Warheads 3 (but only needed 1).


Neutral:
Lobi: 405 (now only need to gring another mil for the jemmy),
8 ship weapons (but none as good as my current Mk xi - on the exchange soon).

Didnt need:
19 doff packs: lots of whites and greens, only three blues in the lot of them (gave all to a L7 character).
7 patrol escorts,
7 purple ground weapons.


Worthless junk:
76 dilithium claims,
and some other stuff that went straight in the recycler.


Back in a couple of months (with another mil),

Not the best return for a million dilithium.
I find this ... anomalous.

I did a 40-box run yesterday. I don't remember much but I remember I had 10 lobi when I started and 255 when I ended. In a 40 box run I got a full set of XII phased polarons , several purp doffs, and enough dilith claims to help finance the next 40 box run.

I'd estimate my average rate of Lobi to Box is 5 to 6, not 4. For you to get 405 is an ASTOUNDING run of bad luck, and it isn't borne out by any of the box results I'm getting.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 187
# 45
02-05-2013, 02:51 AM
It was worse than I was expecting, though it is possible it was 408, as I cant remember if I had 12 or 15 lobi before I started, I definitly have 423 now, and I am 990,000 dil poorer.
"He tasks me. He tasks me, and I shall have him. For every doff box bought, I'll chase him round the Moons of Nibia and round the Antares Maelstrom and round Perdition's flames. For every single doff box opened, I stab at thee from hell's heart. For every single doff contributed, I spit my last breath at thee..." Khan Playing STO
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 245
# 46
02-05-2013, 07:04 AM
I am getting the feeling that the dilithium claims are actually one of the best rewards:

You start with 100zen. Buy a key, get either 10-pack or 6-pack. 10 pack is 50,000 dil -> 500zen. 6-pack is 30,000 dil -> 300 zen.

Now you can buy 5 or 3 more keys.

Every dilithium claims essentially multiplies to more keys.

Or course you can not overdue it, because you have a buffer of 10 or 6 days. But opening a box for a claim pack every 6 or 10 days sounds profitable.
Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 13,171
# 47
02-05-2013, 09:24 AM
Yeah, Dil claims are basically free dil. And they come in multipacks. Peeps complain about them because you can only use one a day. Thus the people who opened a giant stack of boxes on one char will have enough to last for months.
HAIL HYDRA!

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I can haz joystick!
MMOs aren't charities. Corporations are supposed to make a profit. It's what they do.
Career Officer
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 559
# 48
02-05-2013, 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lazarus51166 View Post
Except that they are sold on the concept of winning one of the rewards being the point of buying them, not for lobi crystals. That should then be a red flag
I would agree with this statement if not for the fact that inevitably there is a Lobi store in effect. Hence, purchasing the lock box for anything more than the lobi itself is really just a bonus as the products in the Lobi store are themselves in many ways superior to the random drop. For example, the Temporal Destroyer VS the Wells. Cryptic is successfully ensuring that no matter what, if it is a ship that you want then eventually a ship is what you will get.

The rest of stuff can be turned into EC or Zen. Another bonus?! (Depending of your perspective I suppose)
"The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward." - Rocky Balboa (2006)
Lieutenant
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 43
# 49
02-11-2013, 02:01 PM
it'd be interesting to know if anyone has ever lucked out first time and got a dreadnought carrier out of their first ever box..
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,060
# 50
02-11-2013, 07:47 PM
Quote:
Thats proof enough for me, and i'm saying that as a programmer that works with more random number generators than I care to think about. I'm well aware of how to skew them, as you put it. And frankly you just described an effort at hard coding them to be rigged.
1. While the anecdotal evidence and your experience counts as a good reason to assume its been programmed to pay out on the low side, its still not empirical evidence.

2. They never claimed "a chicken in every pot" as far as the boxes go. "Rigged" implies deceit/ cheating with intent to have no winners. You always win something in these boxes.

I don't want to sound like one of those 1% douchebags, but this is very much something that falls into the "Personal Responsibility" category and the only person players should be angry with over not getting hundreds of Lobi and ships are themselves.

Quote:
Yeah, Dil claims are basically free dil
Sixty seconds of work. Five thousand dilithium. The only people complaining about this are "Me want all nao!" people. Silly.
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