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Lieutenant
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 85
# 11
02-06-2013, 01:04 PM
I suppose we should take your word for it. Statistically speaking, 300 is a very small sample size, but I gave up on this doff mission after only 30 attempts because I had the same results. Piles of stealth modules and equally worthless garbage. Oh well.
Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 773
# 12
02-06-2013, 01:09 PM
Bort,

More in the interest of curiousity, is it possible for you to data mine the game to see the results of everyone who has run the mission and see if it really does work out evenly over the larger sample size?
Joined September 2011
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Captain
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 3,553
# 13
02-06-2013, 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borticuscryptic View Post
I found these results interesting enough that I decided to dig into the reward structure of console fabrication. Since these were created under Heretic, I truly didn't know what to expect.

Here are my findings:

1) The quality of the reward outcome of the "Fabricate Prototype" assignment is guaranteed to match the quality of the success' display name. In other words, if your results say "Blue Quality" the console you receive cannot be anything other than Blue (Rare) quality, in all circumstances. No rare chance to upgrade to a better type, or anything like that.

2) Every console available from our random drop tables is represented. Despite the above sample showing zero Phaser Relays (e.g.), they are included in the drop table as a possible result.

3) All console rewards are equally weighted. This is the part I was unsure would be true, but it is - every item on the reward tables has an absolutely equal chance of being rewarded.

The only possible explanation I can offer at this point, is that it's just a matter of sample size. There are 42 different Mk XII consoles you can receive from this assignment (16 Eng, 10 Sci, 16 Tac) of each quality (Green, Blue, Purple) resulting in the total number of potential outcomes being 42*3=126. When you run a sample size of 300, with almost half that many possible outcomes, your odds are invariably going to be too small to create an big enough picture of the entirety.
He's right, 300 is a very small sample size. I think a better one would be 10,000.

However I will ask you this Borticus. Why are there certain consoles still in the game, especially since they seem to be either archaic/outdated/completely unnecessary? For example, stealth modules? What use are they outside of VERY specific sets of circumstances? It seems that a lot of consoles in general are either under-used or not used at all. Wouldn't it be better to just remove them outright? That way there would be a smaller pool of possible results which would give a more desired outcome.
It is said the best weapon is one that is never fired. I disagree. The best weapon is one you only have to fire... once.
Tired of Wasting EC and Time trying to get Superior Romulan Operative BOffs? Here's a cheap and easy way to get them, with an almost 100% chance of success.
Why the Devs can't make PvE content harder.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 546
# 14
02-06-2013, 01:22 PM
I end up getting a large amount of worthless chroniton tac consoles the majority of times i run fab console and thats using doffs with a 24/52/24 ratio of p/b/g or somit like that. Seems like i also get sensor consoles and other worthless sci consoles.

Would be nice if some of the worthless (i.e will only sell for under 100k on exchange) consoles can be pulled from the toys mission as powered artifacts are costing me a bomb at 1.4-1.5 mill a pop and with the results of consoles no one uses i dont see why i should be shelling out this much for them.

Sure i get some nice drops occasionally but i wouldnt mind poor drops as long as there not just for the majority of the time sensor probes or chron consoles etc.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,360
# 15
02-06-2013, 01:26 PM
It is LONG PAST time that crafting was expanded to include Mk XII Very Rare consoles. Those things are just absurdly overpriced on the exchange for the tiny bit of improvement over plain old Mk XI blue. If you must have some crazy-rare unobtanium class of consoles, change the duty officer project to drop Mk XII Ultra Rare.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 269
# 16
02-06-2013, 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borticuscryptic View Post
I found these results interesting enough that I decided to dig into the reward structure of console fabrication. Since these were created under Heretic, I truly didn't know what to expect.

Here are my findings:

1) The quality of the reward outcome of the "Fabricate Prototype" assignment is guaranteed to match the quality of the success' display name. In other words, if your results say "Blue Quality" the console you receive cannot be anything other than Blue (Rare) quality, in all circumstances. No rare chance to upgrade to a better type, or anything like that.

2) Every console available from our random drop tables is represented. Despite the above sample showing zero Phaser Relays (e.g.), they are included in the drop table as a possible result.

3) All console rewards are equally weighted. This is the part I was unsure would be true, but it is - every item on the reward tables has an absolutely equal chance of being rewarded.

The only possible explanation I can offer at this point, is that it's just a matter of sample size. There are 42 different Mk XII consoles you can receive from this assignment (16 Eng, 10 Sci, 16 Tac) of each quality (Green, Blue, Purple) resulting in the total number of potential outcomes being 42*3=126. When you run a sample size of 300, with almost half that many possible outcomes, your odds are invariably going to be too small to create an big enough picture of the entirety.
I've been farming Children's Toys on my 12 Lvl 50 toon's twice a week now ever since the chain was introduced. That means I've run Fabricate Protoype Console 24 times a week for nearly a year now and I can tell you without a doubt that something is definitely wrong with the information you're providing. My results seem very similar to the OP. I don't think it's a coincidence for more than one person to be seeing similar results.

Quote:
Originally Posted by malkarris View Post
Bort,

More in the interest of curiousity, is it possible for you to data mine the game to see the results of everyone who has run the mission and see if it really does work out evenly over the larger sample size?
This would seem like a better way to gather results to me if you can do it.

Last edited by rooster75; 02-06-2013 at 01:41 PM.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 196
# 17
02-06-2013, 01:37 PM
I, too, seem to get a disproportionate number of extraordinarily useless consoles. While I lacked the foresight to record the results of my attempts to fabricate consoles, I recall several occasions where I've had the spark of anticipation at a critical success totally destroyed by a mk xii stealth module. Always purple. Never blue or green. How it mocks me.

Stealth modules have become the bane of my DOFFing existence. Aux power boosting consoles are not far behind.

I'm sure that the values are as you say, Borticus, but I have to say that the results do not *feel* random. It's almost as though there is a God of DOFF missions smiting me for my hubris. Barring malevolent gaming deities, is there anything else that could be skewing the results? Or am I just remarkably unfortunate?
Starships: Model errors and feedback project, 2410 edition.
Republic Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 239
# 18
02-06-2013, 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hereticknight085 View Post
However I will ask you this Borticus. Why are there certain consoles still in the game, especially since they seem to be either archaic/outdated/completely unnecessary? For example, stealth modules? What use are they outside of VERY specific sets of circumstances? It seems that a lot of consoles in general are either under-used or not used at all. Wouldn't it be better to just remove them outright? That way there would be a smaller pool of possible results which would give a more desired outcome.
Neat idea, but maybe the right change is to buff the scaling of science/engineering skills.
- What if 90 skill Particle generators made GW3 hit as hard as a Quantum Torpedo TS3?
- What if a 60 skill difference in (Inertial Dampeners - Graviton generators) made you shrug off tractor beams?
- What if it wasn't so easy to kill crew? What if the difference between 100% crew and 0% crew was 50% as strong as a permanent HE1?
- What if a 60 skill difference in (Stealth - Sensors) meant that you could dance around a science ship with Sensor Scan and still not be spotted?
Commander
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 477
# 19
02-06-2013, 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hereticknight085 View Post
He's right, 300 is a very small sample size. I think a better one would be 10,000.

However I will ask you this Borticus. Why are there certain consoles still in the game, especially since they seem to be either archaic/outdated/completely unnecessary? For example, stealth modules? What use are they outside of VERY specific sets of circumstances? It seems that a lot of consoles in general are either under-used or not used at all. Wouldn't it be better to just remove them outright? That way there would be a smaller pool of possible results which would give a more desired outcome.
A good first-order estimate for a sufficient sample size is always the square of the number of elements --> 42 consoles --> 1764 = N

way to go
STOWiki admin.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 196
# 20
02-06-2013, 02:02 PM
Just to help keep this discussion focused on the Alien Artifact Aberration (or whatever we should call it), I've started a thread dealing with useless consoles/possible skill scale inequities here. That way, Bort and the other devs can keep the two separate problems straight. Feel free to jump in there and add your thoughts.
Starships: Model errors and feedback project, 2410 edition.
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