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Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,400
# 31
02-06-2013, 09:44 PM
Well these results, even if the sample size is small, keep me convinced I've been smart to not bother with console fabrication.

1) You need some seriously expensive doffs to get max purple % chance. (10 to 20 mill each? I haven't looked in a while)
2) 300 powered alien artifacts represents in the 390 to 410 million EC region.


The OP would need to have gotten 8 to 12 (or more) MK XII consoles of truly high end value (read: MK XII Purple Tac Consoles) just to break even.

Lieutenant
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 95
# 32 Said simply
02-06-2013, 10:42 PM
So trying to paraphrase the excellent statistical theory here for the laymen or an Eighth grade education (ok, or myself):

You would expect that if all drops have an equal chance, that the results would be about the same number of each console dropping +/- a few. This can be in a category of consoles (Sci, Eng, Tac) or across all 42 consoles.

The observed results on a universe of 300 items shows that it's not distributed evenly, or even close to evenly.

Therefore, you conclude something is off in the probabilities.

That seems pretty clear and compelling.

It seems very improbable that this distribution would occur on 300 runs of the mission, if all consoles have an even chance of dropping.

The suggestion of reviewing the recorded results of the Children's Toys mission drop data seems like a good place to look to dispel the "it's just bad luck of random number generators" theory.

Or maybe Cryptic could run the mission 25,000 times internally or on Tribble and see if the results show a 1/42 drop rate for each console? I'm sure the community would find that data interesting to review.

It sounds like a Beam Fire at Will coding search for the community and the devs to work together on!
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 135
# 33
02-07-2013, 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ussultimatum View Post
Well these results, even if the sample size is small, keep me convinced I've been smart to not bother with console fabrication.

1) You need some seriously expensive doffs to get max purple % chance. (10 to 20 mill each? I haven't looked in a while)
2) 300 powered alien artifacts represents in the 390 to 410 million EC region.


The OP would need to have gotten 8 to 12 (or more) MK XII consoles of truly high end value (read: MK XII Purple Tac Consoles) just to break even.
I make consoles for ec in this game. Probably not the best choice how it often depends on luck and me not spending more than I make, and not having enough to buy more arts and particles.

I make 21 consoles a day across 7 toons. (Toons are purple critical trait, resolve, and engineer 24/51/24)
My console spread purple blue and green right now:

p=210,
b=395,
g=175,1,1,


I buy 350 particle sets (set= 1 of each of the 10 particles) and buy (350) artifacts to infuse. Sometimes it seems I get lucky and make back what I put in, and then some. Other times I barely break even, and if I spent any of the money I got from consoles I have to buy piecemeal. I really love the times that strange arts cost 400k-700k range but now its 800k and up right now. Also fyi the console market takes a nose dive when a lockbox is released people spend ec on lockbox keys and ships instead of consoles which means a negative profit on most consoles. Tetryon gens blue used to be 2 million are now less than 800k.


I've had similar distribution of consoles as the original OP, where it seems some consoles are spammed through the system. I'm just wondering if the random number generator is spread out over everyone or just for a person. Because if it was just for a person you would probably see a more even distribution of the different consoles.

Also has anyone noticed if certain critical traits gives more of a specific type? Like say cunning trait gives more engineering consoles. I'm probably going to start keeping track to see what I find out.
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Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,069
# 34
02-07-2013, 02:07 AM
With the 5 purple engineering doffs (Jem Hadar ones) for the console assignment chances are 24% purple ,51% blue ,24% green. From the last 15 artefacts I got only green junk like stealth modules and bio consoles
Republic Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,031
# 35
02-07-2013, 05:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hanover2 View Post
It is LONG PAST time that crafting was expanded to include Mk XII Very Rare consoles. Those things are just absurdly overpriced on the exchange for the tiny bit of improvement over plain old Mk XI blue. If you must have some crazy-rare unobtanium class of consoles, change the duty officer project to drop Mk XII Ultra Rare.
I agree...especially with resource costs...dilithium is precious as it is...and it could bring them in more money from people buying zen to sell for dilithium.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,124
# 36
02-07-2013, 06:17 AM
Looking at the OP and the data there it is remarkably similar to what I've been putting out as well.

The green/blue/purple % outcome is approximately correct
The distribution of consoles is heavily weighted, guessing if what is said is true and the weights are equal, there is something else hidden there forcing some consoles to be rarer than they should.

In tactical consoles; vast majority of the time you are getting generic warhead, generic beam, generic cannon, but my TCD and ambiplasma's are way higher. Actual energy consoles are quite rare, and rarer still for purples.

Eng consoles seem to spew out the injector, field emitter and plasma dist consoles like crazy. Armour seems fairly well distributed, even rcs consoles. Personally I've had fewer Neutroniums, but its not statistically telling.

Sci consoles are misleading without actually documenting, because most sci consoles are terrible. But PI, sensors, stealth, and countermeasures pop up over and over, nearly 75% for those four. Only had one field generator but a dozen of each of the above. The semi-useful bunch sits in the middle, the emitters, particle, graviton, etc.

So if the RNG is picking quality/success of the mission, what is being used to pick the specific console? The two can't be tied together.
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Captain
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,013
# 37
02-07-2013, 06:43 AM
Another thing to keep in mind when looking at the distribution is the human factor.

Out of all Engineering consoles their are what, 2, that are highly desired? Maybe 2 more that are not total junk.

Science post Embassy is pretty much the same as engineering if not worse.

Tactical though only has 4 junk consoles.

This will make it seem or feel like your getting mostly junk even with purples because most of them are just that. Junk.

Isn't it time to just remove the consoles that serve no real purpose on anyone's ship? Do we really need four +crappy power engineering consoles?
Captain
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,109
# 38
02-07-2013, 07:11 AM
I'm still not convinced the distribution isn't random. 300 is not a large sample size given the size of the pool. Plus, I can't help but notice the conspicuous absence of the Biofunction Monitor and the Emergency Forcefield, crap consoles I see all the time. Either you somehow believe that Cryptic has rigged the pool AGAINST two marvelously crap consoles that you, personally, no doubt see all the time, or the sample size just isn't big enough.
Empire Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,202
# 39
02-07-2013, 07:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by commodoreshrvk View Post
snip
You forgot something extremely important: the human factor. As a geography teacher myself i'm not completely new to probabilities, but to understand this you often need to get your head out of the %, especially if humans are involved. Here it's not just coins you're flipping in an ideal environment.

This game has 2M players. I'm too lazy to make the math now, but with this amount of players, you'll get obviously a significant amount of unlucky people. These people will tend to come on the forums more often than the happy ones, and they will post together in such threads to complain.

I'm not saying that everything is fine and that it wouldn't require further studies, but this topic whehe 10 or 20 people complain is clearly not enough to say that there's something wrong. Because these 10 people could very well be among the most unlucky guys in the game. As a general rule, when people have the freedom of speech, they will use it to voice their concerns before saying what's fine for them, if they ever say it.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,295
# 40
02-07-2013, 07:46 AM
Which is not to say that Cryptic shouldn't do some mass testing and post up the results, if only for the sake of PR.

"Don't let them promote you. Don't let them transfer you. Don't let them do anything that takes you off the bridge of that ship, because while you're there... you can make a difference." - James T. Kirk
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