Commander
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 289
# 111
02-11-2013, 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by commodoreshrvk View Post
With deuemperor's data and the admgreer?s updated data we now have 455 consoles crafted and the deviation from a uniform distribution has become greater:

Original Data - Chi-square = 263.39, with 40 df, probability = 1.14x10^-34
Data as of 2/9 - Chi-square = 252.68, with 40 df, probability = 1.11x10^-32
Data as of 2/11 - Chi-square = 325.54 with 41 df, probability = 5.72x10^-46

Lol , I finished college and I have no Idea what that means except that consoles are not dropping randomly
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 445
# 112
02-12-2013, 08:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by admgreer View Post
Lol , I finished college and I have no Idea what that means except that consoles are not dropping randomly
The Chi-Square value measures the magnitude of the difference between the observed data and the expected outcomes (Uniform).

The df is degrees of freedom and is used with the the Chi-Square value to obtain the probability.

The probability is the final measure which tells you if the observed distribution differs SIGNIFICANTLY from the expected (uniform) distribution. When the probability is <0.05 we can say the two distributions are significant. When the probability is so small (like we are seeing), it means the results are drastically different.

I have a hunch that with additional crafting, we are not going to approach a situation where the observed and expected distributions will be the same. I mean with adding ~50% more data, the magnitude of the difference increased, hence why I am am putting up the values each time I more consoles are added.
Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 13,498
# 113
02-12-2013, 10:11 AM
Well... my observations of having my Doffs do "Experimental console upgrades" is that I DO get plenty of damage type consoles. In fact I got an AP-Mag yesterday...
HAIL HYDRA!

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
I can haz joystick!
MMOs aren't charities. Corporations are supposed to make a profit. It's what they do.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 135
# 114
02-12-2013, 10:49 AM
Quote:
"Experimental console upgrades"
This is a different console mission. So not really helpful. This is the children's toys missions where we make mk 12 consoles from powered artifacts.
http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/sh...d.php?t=490421 We want this help build support!
Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 13,498
# 115
02-12-2013, 11:12 AM
I know that.... BUT, from what Bort has said it uses a nearly identical loot table. (the only difference being the mk of the console)
HAIL HYDRA!

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
I can haz joystick!
MMOs aren't charities. Corporations are supposed to make a profit. It's what they do.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 245
# 116
02-15-2013, 03:58 AM
For 361 tries out of 42 consoles:
The highest dropped console should be at 17-19 times.
The lowest dropped console should be at 1-3 times.

If a console drops 0 times, it is a sign that something was not correct.
If a console drops more than 20 times, it is a sign that something was not correct.

Measures with that, the results from OP look pretty bad. A typical result should look like this:

Quote:
[console_18] => 2
[console_31] => 4
[console_8] => 4
[console_9] => 5
[console_40] => 5
[console_15] => 5
[console_24] => 5
[console_30] => 5
[console_41] => 5
[console_37] => 6
[console_14] => 6
[console_25] => 6
[console_36] => 7
[console_38] => 7
[console_26] => 7
[console_5] => 8
[console_22] => 8
[console_10] => 8
[console_23] => 8
[console_3] => 9
[console_19] => 9
[console_21] => 9
[console_1] => 9
[console_12] => 10
[console_28] => 10
[console_16] => 10
[console_34] => 10
[console_32] => 10
[console_7] => 10
[console_4] => 11
[console_6] => 11
[console_39] => 11
[console_2] => 11
[console_0] => 11
[console_29] => 11
[console_35] => 12
[console_11] => 12
[console_27] => 12
[console_17] => 12
[console_20] => 13
[console_13] => 13
[console_33] => 14
edit: So I ran 100,000 simulations of "361 out of 42" and not once did a console drop more than 23 times. A console dropping 24 times, or 25 times, ... or even 27 (!!!) times as with OP, is practically impossible. You would need to run millions of simulation to get one simulation where a console drops 27 times.

At first I was on the side of "Everything works correctly, the OP result is just a random outcome", but now i am on the side of "Something is wrong with the data or code"

Last edited by allocater; 02-15-2013 at 05:52 AM.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 245
# 117
02-15-2013, 05:51 AM
Picture says more than 1000 words:

http://i.imgur.com/kqvKvbL.png
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 445
# 118
02-15-2013, 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by allocater View Post
Picture says more than 1000 words:

http://i.imgur.com/kqvKvbL.png
It looks like your simulations per console are following a Poisson distribution to the T.

You have inspired me. I will generate exact tests to determine which consoles significantly differ and how far off the observed results are.

Borticus, if you are still watching this thread I can put this all into an Excel workbook and ship it your way.

Last edited by commodoreshrvk; 02-15-2013 at 12:09 PM.
Captain
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,000
# 119
02-15-2013, 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by commodoreshrvk View Post
It looks like your simulations per console are following a Poisson distribution to the T.

You have inspired me. I will generate exact tests to determine which consoles are significantly differ and how far off the observed results are.

Borticus, if you are still watching this thread I can put this all into an Excel workbook and ship it your way.
I just want to say this is the spirit of the forums, it's good to see Cryptic helping the players and vice versa.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 153
# 120
02-16-2013, 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bareel View Post
You can eliminate all Sci consoles other than Field Gens from that list thanks to embassy.

Also EPS I can't really think of why it would be desirable but if you say so.
Let's be aware that there are many players like myself who aren't in fleets, and have no interest in being in fleets, so people such as myself will be wanting these non fleet consoles.
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