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Captain
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,061
# 171
04-11-2013, 03:51 PM
For what it is worth, I did get a very rare Zero Point Quantum Chamber out of maybe 12 -15 attempts, which I see is missing from the OP's list.

It lends credence that 300 attempts may indeed be too small of a sample size for the number of possible consoles available.

Good effort on the part of the OP however, thanks for doing this. If the number of consoles possible is 5 instead of 49, 300 probably will be a big enough sample to draw conclusions.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,844
# 172
04-12-2013, 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by royalsovereign View Post
Every game ends up having discussions like these...

A) I've tried X 1000 times and only gotten y result 3 times, it's borked!
B) Dude, your sample is too small. If you do it 100,000 times it'll be good.
A) and B) argue awhile with others chiming in how their anecdotes prove A) or B) is right/wrong/crazy.
C) *I've* done (insert OCD-level insane number of reps) and only gotten y __ times. A) is right, something is borked.


Well, let me toss something out onto the fire.

Lets say a given RNG needs a sample set of at least 100,000 to approach a truly random distribution. The problem is, to see that even distribution, every result of that RNG needs to be in the data set. Which is just fine if you're feeding it one operation and looking at the results of 100,000 consecutive iterations.

Unfortunately, in a game, that RNG is working on hundreds of different data sets at any given time.

I really don't see how you could ever collect enough data to expect truly random results. The game would have to be coded so that each specific function had its own dedicated RNG associated with it to approach any kind of even distribution.
I have no idea what you are trying to say. In most standard libraries, the pseudorandom number generator is not "fed an operation" and does not "work on a data set". Typically, you call an initialization function to pass the PRNG a seed. Then, you make multiple calls to another function to get pseudorandom values. Sometimes, this function will take a numeric range. Otherwise, the range will be full 32-bit or 64-bit range allowed by the system. How you interpret the value returned is up to you. Usually, the programmer will just mod the returned value by the number of categories. For example, suppose there are 10 categories. The programmer will use the integers 0 to 9 to represent them. If the PRNG returns 12332482, then just compute 12332482 mod 10 = 2 to select a category.

I should be able to use the same PRNG for multiple uses, even with the same seed. For example, suppose I have need to select one of 3 colors and one of 4 shapes. The code will look something like this:

seed(s);
color = rand() mod 3;
shape = rand() mod 4;

Unless the library you are using is poorly implemented, this method should produce roughly uniform distributions.

Last edited by frtoaster; 04-26-2013 at 10:38 AM.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 135
# 173
04-20-2013, 05:38 AM
K I said I would post once I had 1800ish consoles made took a while. I've made a total of 1830 consoles.

Science consoles: there are 12 consoles out of 42 possible which is 12/42= 28.57%
Purple Blue Green Total
Biofunction Modulator 12 17 14 43
Countermeasure System 9 11 19 39
Emitter Array 8 22 11 41
Field Generator 9 18 14 41
Flow Capacitor 9 21 19 49
Graviton Generator 15 22 11 48
Inertial Dampeners 11 22 18 51
Particle Generator 8 27 13 48
Power insulator 14 18 16 48
Sensor Probes 13 18 11 42
Shield emitter amplifier 8 24 9 41
Stealth Module 10 22 10 42

Total sci console: 533 [533/1830=29.12% vs. 12/42= 28.57%]

Engineering consoles: there are 14 consoles out of 42 possible which is 14/42= 33.33%
P B G
Ablative Hull Armor 15 22 8 45
Diburnium Hull Plating 12 19 17 48
Electroceramic Hull Plating 14 24 14 52
Emergency force field 8 15 9 32
EPS flow regulator 20 19 15 54
Field Emitter 10 14 13 37
Injector Assembly 16 22 18 56
Monotanium Alloy 13 11 15 39
Neutronium Alloy 17 24 16 57
Parametallic Hull Plating 6 13 13 32
Plasma Distribution Manifold 17 22 14 53
RCS accelerator 11 10 14 35
SIF generator 15 25 18 58

Total eng consoles: 641 [641/1830=35.02% vs. 14/42= 33.33%]

Tactical Consoles: there are 16 consoues out of 42 which is 16/42= 38.09%
P B G
Ambiplasma Envelope 11 12 16 39
Antiproton Mag Regulator 8 20 13 41
Chroniton Flux Regulator 11 19 9 39
Directed Energy Distribution Manifold 10 17 8 35
Disruptor Induction Coil 4 16 10 30
Phaser Relay 12 13 10 35
Photon Detonation Assembly 8 16 11 35
Plasma Infuser 12 20 10 42
Polaron Phase Modulator 11 17 12 40
Prefire Chamber 9 17 21 47
Tetryon Pulse Generator 17 27 21 65
Transphasic Compressor 11 24 9 44
Variable Geometry Detonators 5 17 15 37
Warhead Yield Chamber 12 24 11 47
Zero Point Quantum Chamber 12 21 9 42

Total tac consoles: 656 [656/1830=35.84% vs. 16/42= 38.09%]

Purple: 475 [475/1830=25.95%]
Blue: 796 [796/1830=43.49%]
Green: 559 [559/1830=30.54%]
Total: 1830
Expenses of infusing own artifacts 1830* 1.4 million: 2,562,000,000 ec
Estimated profits from purples only: 3,164,760,000
So that profit doesn't include what I got from blues or greens.

This is the output of 8 toons making 16-40 consoles a day no days missed. The only thing I can think why mine seems to be more even in consoles made than the original post is that he did it every once in a while instead of consistently. If that ends up being the reason if you get into the crafting business then you want to make consoles daily or almost daily, and it probably helps that I have 8 toons doing it instead of 1 or 2 toons.

Also everything was spaced nicely but then the forum changed it
http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/sh...d.php?t=490421 We want this help build support!

Last edited by deusemperor; 04-20-2013 at 05:57 AM.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,844
# 174
04-20-2013, 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deusemperor View Post
This is the output of 8 toons making 16-40 consoles a day no days missed. The only thing I can think why mine seems to be more even in consoles made than the original post is that he did it every once in a while instead of consistently. If that ends up being the reason if you get into the crafting business then you want to make consoles daily or almost daily, and it probably helps that I have 8 toons doing it instead of 1 or 2 toons.
I think the most likely explanation is that there was a bug at some point in time that was later fixed. If the OP had collected data over a period of time that included the time the bug was live, then that would be enough to skew his results.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,756
# 175
04-25-2013, 10:35 PM
I'm going to have to do this for the Asylum assignment because there I know the 17% purple doff chance for Earth/Andoria/Vulcan using chain doffs seems to have been screwed up.
Empire Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 421
# 176
04-25-2013, 11:16 PM
a dev already posted the drop table on consoles in this thread a while back
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,362
# 177
04-29-2013, 09:15 AM
If the majority of consoles are 'useless' then obviously the majority of the ones you make will be too. I don't really bother making anything. Why waste a 1M+ artifact for a high chance to make a console you'll just end up vendoring?

This chain of missions should only give Mk XI or XII purples. And then even most Mx XI purples would fall under 'useless' category.
Sometimes I think I play STO just to have stuff to rant about on the forums!

Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,063
# 178
04-29-2013, 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deusemperor View Post
Expenses of infusing own artifacts 1830* 1.4 million: 2,562,000,000 ec
Estimated profits from purples only: 3,164,760,000
So that profit doesn't include what I got from blues or greens.
Do these calculations include the cost of Strange Alien Artifacts, or are you getting those via other means?
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 135
# 179
04-29-2013, 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by red01999 View Post
Do these calculations include the cost of Strange Alien Artifacts, or are you getting those via other means?
Quote:
Expenses of infusing own artifacts 1830* 1.4 million: 2,562,000,000 ec
At the of post I've made 1830 powered artifacts. Though the price changed as strange arts went down or up and particle traces going down in price then up I've never seen it more than 1.4 million to purchase strange artifacts and particle traces to infuse them. That means to make 1 powered artifact costs less than 1.4 million. So I just use that has the high expense of 1.4 million per powered artifact. In reality the actual price goes from lowest I've seen of 880k to get 1 artifact at 500k and then 380k for 10 particle traces TO 1.39 million the highest I've paid to get a artifact and power it.

In reality then I have had expenses less than what stated. But as the price seems to change up and down I decided to put the highest cost. Maybe it only cost me 2.1 billion ec to make 1830, but too lazy to keep that much track of expenses so did the highest number.

Quote:
Estimated profits from purples only: 3,164,760,000
So that profit doesn't include what I got from blues or greens.
To get estimated profits from purples I watched the exchange and averaged the lowest amount a purple could get and put that for my base line. Example I've seen purple mk 12 sensor probes for 40k ec, but at other times I've seen them for 480k ec so I put 30k ec for my bare minimum. I did this with all the purples and out of the 1830 I've had 475 purples and at minimum prices earned me 3,164,760,000 ec. So I most likely made a lot more ec than stated from purple consoles.

Blues and greens prices on exchange change so much from going to 110k ec one day for a green to what you can get from a vendor so I haven't bothered tracking blues or greens ec income like I've done with purples. There are blues that are worth a lot like neutronium, phaser relay, etc..

If I had the patience to actually do that much detailed math I would have an almost exact income from consoles. I may have made 3.5-5 billion ec from all the consoles I've made since February.

I have 8 toons crafting and they make anywhere between 16-32 consoles a day. Sometimes more if I wake up in the middle of the night and can't sleep.
http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/sh...d.php?t=490421 We want this help build support!
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 135
# 180
05-01-2013, 02:42 AM
sci: [12/42= 28.57%
eng: [14/42= 33.33%
tac: [16/42= 38.09%

Interesting update on purple drop rates and how they don't seem to follow the above percentages like you would think they should.

Purples out of Total consoles made: 532/2090=25.4545%
Then specified type of purple consoles below:
Sci: 137/2090= 6.5550%
Eng: 213/2090= 10.1913%
Tac: 182/2090= 8.7081%

Taking the percentage of Purples per type out of total purple percentage:
Sci: 6.5550/25.4545= 25.7518% [12/42= 28.5714%] Difference: -2.8196
Eng: 10.1913/25.4545= 40.0373% [14/42= 33.3333%] Difference: 6.704
Tac: 8.7081/25.4545= 34.2104% [16/42= 38.0952%] Difference: -3.8848

Any math wizards out there can tell me if this is normal or to be expected? It seems engineering consoles drop with the expected tac drop rate for purple consoles.

There are 14 engineering consoles so when making a console you should have 33.3333% chance it is engineering. There are 16 tactical consoles you can make which give you a 38.0952% chance of getting a tactical console.

Total of each type of console made so far:
Sci: 609/2090= 29.1387% [12/42= 28.5714%] Difference: .5673
Eng: 732/2090= 35.0239% [14/42= 33.3333%] Difference: 1.6906
Tac: 749/2090= 35.8373% [16/42= 38.0952%] Difference: -2.2579

So after 2090 consoles it seems to be something is wrong with the distribution of Eng and Tac consoles. What is the usual percentage of acceptable variance of distribution? Science seems to be within 1%, but eng and tack are over that...

Should the eng and tac consoles have near the same drop percentage when there is more tactical consoles than eng consoles? Should Eng consoles have a higher amount of purple compared to tac consoles?

Look at it 732-749= 17 console difference! Take the two console difference of prossibilities out of 42. (16 tac-14 eng= 2)
2/42= 4.7619%
Lets take that percentage and times it against 2090.
.047619x2090=99.52371

Therefore there should be 99.52371 difference between engineering and tac consoles. But we have 17 console difference...
http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/sh...d.php?t=490421 We want this help build support!
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