Captain
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,472
# 31
02-26-2014, 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dragonsbite View Post
Of course conditions will effect acc overflow. But there is a right and a wrong and the calculations are wrong for acc overflow. If you want to point people to that calculator you should maybe point out the inaccuracy of acc overflow by telling them, to ensure they don't use that portion of it. But as acc overflow calculations are incorrect the weapons with acc are listed higher then they should be. So even choosing not to enter your accuracy will still show incorrect results for weapons with acc. And that you can't ignore. So you'd be better off using something else or point out to not use acc overflow and devalue or ignore the weapons with acc? Geez this just gets more complicated. Better off if the calculator was redone.
And what's this "wrong" value you're referring to? Values used are the official ones given by Cryptic. Many have tried doing trial runs, but weapon hits in game vary too widely, deviation from each trial run way too large, not to mention visible and hidden conditions to skew the results. They couldn't get a statistically significant result from any realistic number of trial runs, and the source code just isn't available for us to just check. So what Cryptic says, goes. If you're seeing these and coming up with conspiracy theories, take it up with them.

Besides, it's not as if any of the deceptive posts by OP took acc into account at all. If anything, it's less accurate than the calculator, to say nothing of the starting values.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
# 32
02-26-2014, 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by noblet View Post
Oh, and the 1:10 rule of thumb doesn't come from CrtH modifier being 2% and CrtD being 20%. It comes from the typical tac newbie asking questions in the academy: He would have crit chance in the high single digits or low teens, and severity already well above 100 based on specialization skill, acc, dhc, ap, and a mix of odd modifiers. It assumes he has no resources, but the right skill set for tac. While making no sense mathematically, this rule of thumb shows wisdom and intention to help by the person who came up with it, and not egoism and intention to deceive, like OP of this thread.
A better way to help a newbie is to give him a rule that is mathematically sound and applies to wide variety of situations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noblet View Post
It's on a per weapon modifier basis. If you think the 1:10 comes from CrtD having an extra zero, that's 1:100 for you.

And it doesn't make a 1:5 rule for loc/exp. Exploiters having half the bonus that it's supposed to have merely makes it a bad console. The chumps who end up using [crtH] plus exploiters instead of [crtD] plus locators deserve the nerf they get.
/thread
The reason why I don't think newbies should be told the 1:10 rule is that it makes them misunderstand the math. It's not that the optimal ratio for weapon modifiers is 1:10 and the optimal ratio for spire consoles is 1:5. It's also not the case that exploiters have half the correct bonus. Specific rules that are mathematically sound are as follows:

Rule 1. When deciding between an additional [CrtH] modifier and an additional [CrtD] modifier, choose [CrtH] if your current crit severity is more than 10 times your current crit chance, and choose [CrtD] otherwise.

Rule 2. When deciding between an additional vulnerability locator console and an additional vulnerability exploiter console, choose the locator if your current crit severity is more than 5 times your current crit chance, and choose the exploiter otherwise.

Notice that I have not mentioned an optimal ratio in the above two rules. That's because there isn't a target ratio to achieve. Rule 1 applies only to the situation when you are choosing an additional weapon modifier, and Rule 2 applies only to the situation when you choosing an additional spire console. A more general rule that applies to a wider variety of situations is as follows:

Rule 3. If you are changing crit chance and crit severity only while keeping all other factors the same, then to maximize expected damage, maximize the product of your total crit chance and total crit severity.

And that is the rule that I think should be told to newbies, if they must have a rule instead of following a calculator or spreadsheet.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,508
# 33
02-26-2014, 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by noblet View Post
What's with that 20% chance? Good luck getting that high chance if you're not a Romulan with a whole bunch of superior operatives. Sure, you hear some non-romulans reaching it these days by filling their boat with every universal console under the sun, but that's after a full set of Locators...
You're exaggerating a bit. As a Fed Engineer, I get 26.4% CrtH on my Mobius (with 3x SRO boffs and 3/9 in EWS). So, without the 4x VLs, that would actually, LOL, be *exactly* 20% CrtH.

Also, this is the 4th time I've seen you call the OP 'deceptive' (or that ppl are 'lying'). That seems quite unnecessary, as there are currently several CrtH/CrtD threads going on now, and I'm pretty sure peeps, including you, are all just earnestly trying to figure things out. And rylanadionysis, of all ppl, doesn't lie.
Commander
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 418
# 34
02-26-2014, 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by noblet View Post
And what's this "wrong" value you're referring to? Values used are the official ones given by Cryptic. Many have tried doing trial runs, but weapon hits in game vary too widely, deviation from each trial run way too large, not to mention visible and hidden conditions to skew the results. They couldn't get a statistically significant result from any realistic number of trial runs, and the source code just isn't available for us to just check. So what Cryptic says, goes. If you're seeing these and coming up with conspiracy theories, take it up with them.

Besides, it's not as if any of the deceptive posts by OP took acc into account at all. If anything, it's less accurate than the calculator, to say nothing of the starting values.

Well i can understand where the OP is coming from. We're typically at close to the 100% crit severity range as shown under ship/attack. And if all crit hit and crit sev was listed under that then he'd more or less be correct. But as we have crit hit and crit sev not shown under ship/attack i can't agree with his first post. As regards his last post with the insane crit hit and low crit severity to prove his theory i did the same thing when i did mine to disprove it. But i also included the stuff not shown under ship/attack and i included acc overflow.

As regards acc overflow. The devs provided the spreadsheet to figure this out quite a while ago. The problem was in interpretation. I have the spreadsheet and made my own calculator and testing showed inaccuracies. Someone else pointed out that i was calculating it wrong. I then redid my calculations and they are now correct.

Basically we have a 100% chance to hit. The 95% chance listed under ship/attack/accuracy is old and incorrect and the tooltip has never been changed.

To determine acc overflow you must determine your hit chance. To determine hit chance you need to get the difference of acc/def.

acc=your accuracy
def=opponents defense

acc-def=diff

=IF(diff<0,(1/(1-diff)),IF(diff>0,(2-(1/(1+diff))),1))

So it would look like this.

acc=25%
def=-15%

25%- -15%=40%

=IF(40%<0,(1/(1-40%)),IF(40%>0,(2-(1/(1+40%))),1))=128.57% to hit

acc overflow is to hit above 100%

=IF(diff>0,((to hit%-1)*.125))=additional crit hit%
=IF(diff>0,((to hit%-1)*.5))=additional crit sev%

So it looks like this.

=IF(40>0,((128.57%-1)*.125))=3.57% additional crit hit%
=IF(40>0,((128.57%-1)*.5))=14.29% additional crit sev%

Note the calculator you linked is using the following.

acc-def to determine acc overflow and bypasses the to hit portion.

So that calculator would have this for it's results

40%*.125=5% crit hit
40%*.5=20% crit sev

Which means for this example it's off by +1.43% crit hit and +5.71% crit severity

This was extensively tested on tribble when i thought energy weapon spec was broken for Fire at Will. With others helping to test we found out that it was acc overflow that was not working for Fire at Will. This is also where i was pointed to the correct way to calculate acc overflow. After extensive testing we found that acc overflow worked exactly as the forumlas i provided above for autofiring and that acc overflow was not working for FAW. We tested this to death and we're 100% positive of our results.

Last edited by dragonsbite; 02-26-2014 at 12:23 PM.
Captain
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,472
# 35
02-26-2014, 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by frtoaster View Post
A better way to help a newbie is to give him a rule that is mathematically sound and applies to wide variety of situations.



The reason why I don't think newbies should be told the 1:10 rule is that it makes them misunderstand the math. It's not that the optimal ratio for weapon modifiers is 1:10 and the optimal ratio for spire consoles is 1:5. It's also not the case that exploiters have half the correct bonus. Specific rules that are mathematically sound are as follows:

Rule 1. When deciding between an additional [CrtH] modifier and an additional [CrtD] modifier, choose [CrtH] if your current crit severity is more than 10 times your current crit chance, and choose [CrtD] otherwise.

Rule 2. When deciding between an additional vulnerability locator console and an additional vulnerability exploiter console, choose the locator if your current crit severity is more than 5 times your current crit chance, and choose the exploiter otherwise.

Notice that I have not mentioned an optimal ratio in the above two rules. That's because there isn't a target ratio to achieve. Rule 1 applies only to the situation when you are choosing an additional weapon modifier, and Rule 2 applies only to the situation when you choosing an additional spire console. A more general rule that applies to a wider variety of situations is as follows:

Rule 3. If you are changing crit chance and crit severity only while keeping all other factors the same, then to maximize expected damage, maximize the product of your total crit chance and total crit severity.

And that is the rule that I think should be told to newbies, if they must have a rule instead of following a calculator or spreadsheet.
That stuff is how newbies end up choosing [CrtH] plus exploiters and nerfing themselves, when they should have chosen [CrtD] plus locators. You're trying to make rules for something that can't be simplified into "rules," while maintain accuracy. It ends up being a wall of text that leads to the wrong conclusion for those who don't already understand the matter.

The beauty of 1:10 rule of thumb is it's simple, yet on mark for the target audience. It leads to the right conclusion for people it's targeted to help. Process don't matter.

Otherwise, just use the calculator.
http://comatoes.github.io/sto-crit-calc/
Critical Hit Calculator

Last edited by noblet; 02-26-2014 at 12:12 PM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,508
# 36
02-26-2014, 12:20 PM
Why do ppl keep insisting on a 1:10 rule of thumb?! As if it were at all feasible to get 30%/300% CrtH/CrtD.

And what if ppl only have 10% CrtH? Would someone seriously suggest they only get 100 CrtD for 'optimum'?!

From all I've seen so far, 1:5 seems far more reasonable, and actually doable; like 25/125; or 30/150, etc.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
# 37
02-26-2014, 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by noblet View Post
That stuff is how newbies end up choosing [CrtH] plus exploiters and nerfing themselves, when they should have chosen [CrtD] plus locators. You're trying to make rules for something that can't be simplified into "rules," while maintain accuracy. It ends up being a wall of text that leads to the wrong conclusion for those who don't already understand the matter.

The beauty of 1:10 rule of thumb is it's simple, yet on mark for the target audience. It leads to the right conclusion for people it's targeted to help. Process don't matter.

Otherwise, just use the calculator.
http://comatoes.github.io/sto-crit-calc/
Yes, it's true that actual combat in game is more complicated than a simple mathematical analysis can account for. In that case, how is the 1:10 rule any better?

You are assuming a specific set of circumstances that you think is typical. The rule I gave applies to a wide variety of builds. What is your objection? Is it that you think the rule I gave is too complicated? I don't see how it is any easier to divide crit chance by crit severity than it is to multiply crit chance by crit severity.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
# 38
02-26-2014, 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meimeitoo View Post
Why do ppl keep insisting on a 1:10 rule of thumb?! As if it were at all feasible to get 30%/300% CrtH/CrtD.

And what if ppl only have 10% CrtH? Would someone seriously suggest they only get 100 CrtD for 'optimum'?!

From all I've seen so far, 1:5 seems far more reasonable, and actually doable; like 25/125; or 30/150, etc.
As far as I can tell, some people insist on the 1:10 rule because they heard it from someone long ago and don't know enough math to do the work themselves or follow the mathematical discussions in these forums.
Captain
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,316
# 39
02-26-2014, 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by frtoaster View Post
As far as I can tell, some people insist on the 1:10 rule because they heard it from someone long ago and don't know enough math to do the work themselves or follow the mathematical discussions in these forums.
Pretty much.

1:10 weapon mods
1:5 consoles
1:2.5 boffs

All else being equal it still would average out to about 1:5 using that gimped math, since those three pools each give you about the same outcome individually (about 6-8 critH and/or 25-60critD)

What it really boils down to is that "all of one type" has been proven a fallacy and we should be mixing locators/exploiters to achieve optimum. Only in rare cases would this not prove true.

Its kind of funny because I remember us all saying (myself included) at the start that a 3/2 split was probably going to be the best outcome, and thus far in all of these recent calculations, it has been exactly that, either 3L2E or 3E2L. Maybe we should stick to gut instinct more often instead of seeing 1.6 vs .8 and assuming.
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Captain
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,472
# 40
02-26-2014, 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by meimeitoo View Post
Why do ppl keep insisting on a 1:10 rule of thumb?! As if it were at all feasible to get 30%/300% CrtH/CrtD.

And what if ppl only have 10% CrtH? Would someone seriously suggest they only get 100 CrtD for 'optimum'?!

From all I've seen so far, 1:5 seems far more reasonable, and actually doable; like 25/125; or 30/150, etc.
Read my previous post. The typical newbie who needs to ask, will have the ~10% chance you mentioned, and at the same time the ~100% severity. That's why it matches. You call it coincidence, I call it wisdom and foresight on the part of the person who came up with that rule of thumb. He gave the right answer to the right person.

Arbitrary ratios Crypic assigned to loc/exp has nothing to do with the rule of thumb. It has to do with newbies automatically ending up with ~10% or less chance and ~100% or greater severity due to high severity base and low chance base.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noblet View Post
Oh wow, seriously? That's what I call lying by math. The calculations are right, but since the starting values are wrong, the result is wrong.

What's with that low 80% severity? With an absolute base of 50%? (The real base in game is higher than that, btw) How often do you hear people having such low severity? News for you, weapon specialization skills add bigger portion severity than chance, and acc overflow adds 1% severity per point. You'll far overshoot that based on skills alone in a ship with no consoles using white non-ap non-dhc weapons that has no modifiers.

What's with that 20% chance? Good luck getting that high chance if you're not a Romulan with a whole bunch of superior operatives. Sure, you hear some non-romulans reaching it these days by filling their boat with every universal console under the sun, but that's after a full set of Locators...

Oh, and the 1:10 rule of thumb doesn't come from CrtH modifier being 2% and CrtD being 20%. It comes from the typical tac newbie asking questions in the academy: He would have crit chance in the high single digits or low teens, and severity already well above 100 based on specialization skill, acc, dhc, ap, and a mix of odd modifiers. It assumes he has no resources, but the right skill set for tac. While making no sense mathematically, this rule of thumb shows wisdom and intention to help by the person who came up with it, and not egoism and intention to deceive, like OP of this thread.

It's on a per weapon modifier basis. If you think the 1:10 comes from CrtD having an extra zero, that's 1:100 for you.

And it doesn't make a 1:5 rule for loc/exp. Exploiters having half the bonus that it's supposed to have merely makes it a bad console. The chumps who end up using [crtH] plus exploiters instead of [crtD] plus locators deserve the nerf they get.

Here:
http://comatoes.github.io/sto-crit-calc/
This is a solid calculator, and illustrates the issue nicely. Look through the options on left hand side. It applies whether you're in the masses or the extreme minority who has a full set of superior operatives. Unlike this thread, the calculator does not deceive, whoever you may be.

/thread
If you're not that newbie who needs to ask, don't ask, use the calculator.
http://comatoes.github.io/sto-crit-calc/

If you're capable of doing your own calculations properly, you won't need to ask about the fallacy of vulnerability exploiters.
Critical Hit Calculator

Last edited by noblet; 02-26-2014 at 12:46 PM.
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