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Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
Update 12/01/10: Data may no longer be valid in Season 3.


So you got yourself an Offering of Friendship. Don't you ever wondered what the chances are to get your nice very rare item of choice out of it? Or if you should open it right away or keep it? Oh look, there are some offered on the Exchange, shall I buy them or not?

To shed some light upon that questions I loaded the inventory of my VA and copied to tribble, and copied, and copied (a lot).

First stop: DS9
Offerings opened: 432 (144 on each difficulty setting)
  • 271 Consoles - 62.73%
  • 48 Shields - 11.11%
  • 55 Engines - 12.73%
  • 58 Deflectors - 13.43%
  • 202 mk10 uncommons - 46.76%
  • 17 mk10 rares - 3.94%
  • 2 mk10 very rares - 0.46%
  • 187 mk11 uncommons - 43.29%
  • 24 mk11 rares - 5.56%


Second stop: Ker'rat
Offerings opened: 432 (144 on each difficulty setting)
  • 274 Consoles - 63.43%
  • 51 Shields - 11.81%
  • 57 Engines - 13.19%
  • 50 Deflectors - 11.57%
  • 185 mk10 uncommons - 42.82%
  • 26 mk10 rares - 6.02%
  • 3 mk10 very rares - 0.69%
  • 202 mk11 uncommons - 46.76%
  • 16 mk11 rares - 3.7%


Third stop: Otha (The ground war zone noone ever visits)
Offerings opened: 432 (144 on each difficulty setting)
  • 259 Consoles - 59.95%
  • 58 Shields - 13.43%
  • 52 Engines - 12.04%
  • 63 Deflectors - 14.58%
  • 199 mk10 uncommons - 46.06%
  • 19 mk10 rares - 4.4%
  • 3 mk10 very rares - 0.69%
  • 194 mk11 uncommons - 44.91%
  • 16 mk11 rares - 3.7%
  • 1 mk11 very rare - 0.23%


Fourth stop: Terradome
Offerings opened: 432 (144 on each difficulty setting)
  • 266 Consoles - 61.57%
  • 67 Shields - 15.51%
  • 55 Engines - 12.73%
  • 44 Deflectors - 10.19%
  • 201 mk10 uncommons - 46.53%
  • 31 mk10 rares - 7.18%
  • 4 mk10 very rares - 0.93%
  • 178 mk11 uncommons - 41.2%
  • 18 mk11 rares - 4.17%


Fifth stop: VA B'Tran Secure System Mission
Offerings opened: 432 (144 on each difficulty setting)
  • 267 Consoles - 61.81%
  • 58 Shields - 13.43%
  • 61 Engines - 14.12%
  • 46 Deflectors - 10.65%
  • 205 mk10 uncommons - 47.45%
  • 28 mk10 rares - 6.48%
  • 5 mk10 very rares - 1.16%
  • 176 mk11 uncommons - 40.74%
  • 18 mk11 rares - 4.17%


Sixth and last stop: VA B'Tran Aid The Planet Mission
Offerings opened: 432 (144 on each difficulty setting)
  • 275 Consoles - 63.66%
  • 49 Shields - 11.34%
  • 56 Engines - 12.96%
  • 52 Deflectors - 12.04%
  • 211 mk10 uncommons - 48.84%
  • 23 mk10 rares - 5.32%
  • 9 mk10 very rares - 2.08%
  • 167 mk11 uncommons - 38.66%
  • 22 mk11 rares - 5.09%


Now to compare the different difficulties.
Normal (864 Offerings opened):
  • 530 Consoles - 61.34%
  • 118 Shields - 13.66%
  • 115 Engines - 13.31%
  • 101 Deflectors - 11.69%
  • 409 mk10 uncommons - 47.34%
  • 47 mk10 rares - 5.44%
  • 8 mk10 very rares - 0.93%
  • 363 mk11 uncommons - 42.01%
  • 36 mk11 rares - 4.17%
  • 1 mk11 very rare - 0.12%


Advanced (864 Offerings opened)
  • 520 Consoles - 60.19%
  • 117 Shields - 13.54%
  • 116 Engines - 13.43%
  • 111 Deflectors - 12.85%
  • 389 mk10 uncommons - 45.02%
  • 49 mk10 rares - 5.67%
  • 9 mk10 very rares - 1.04%
  • 370 mk11 uncommons - 42.82%
  • 47 mk11 rares - 5.44%


Elite (864 Offerings opened)
  • 562 Consoles - 65.06%
  • 96 Shields - 11.11%
  • 105 Engines - 12.15%
  • 101 Deflectors - 11.69%
  • 405 mk10 uncommons - 46.88%
  • 48 mk10 rares - 5.56%
  • 9 mk10 very rares - 1.04%
  • 371 mk11 uncommons - 42.94%
  • 31 mk11 rares - 3.59%


That makes a total of 2592 Offerings opened:
  • 1612 Consoles - 62.19%
  • 331 Shields - 12.77%
  • 336 Engines - 12.96%
  • 313 Deflectors - 12.08%
  • 1203 mk10 uncommons - 46.41%
  • 144 mk10 rares - 5.56%
  • 26 mk10 very rares - 1%
  • 1104 mk11 uncommons - 42.59%
  • 114 mk11 rares - 4.4%
  • 1 mk11 very rare - 0.04%

As you might have noticed there are some 'fluctuations' in the percentages depending on the locations, however those can be explained by the small sample size I was working with. It all evens out when increasing the sample size.

So if there is a difference in the chance depending on location and/or difficulty level it is so small that it doesn't matter.

Fun fact: If you sell all your scrap items from the offerings at deferi outpost 3 each offering still is worth ~60k energy credits (or 50k if you take a 'normal' NPC vendor).
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 2
10-16-2010, 10:37 AM
So, statistically speaking, you have given me another reason not to run the exploration missions on anything but Normal? That kind of stinks, you'd expect may be they would increase the blue rare items for going onto Elite but you're saying it has no effect. Before I completely consider turning off advanced for exploration missions; did you acquire any of the offerings when you were in the higher difficulties or did you just collect them all and opened them later at different settings?
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 3
10-16-2010, 01:16 PM
You appear to be under the assumption that what you get depends on where you "open" it. Any basis for that assumption?
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 4
10-17-2010, 02:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by U.S.S.Krieger
You appear to be under the assumption that what you get depends on where you "open" it. Any basis for that assumption?
It was a valid question to ask if locations have an effect upon the outcome. Given the shortcuts some devs did take on non trivial game systems (hello Ambassador Jiro) it wouldn't have surprised me if there would have been a location where it would be disastrous to open an offering. Which luckily there isn't one (at least not the ones I tested ).
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 5
10-17-2010, 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dukedom View Post
It was a valid question to ask if locations have an effect upon the outcome. Given the shortcuts some devs did take on non trivial game systems (hello Ambassador Jiro) it wouldn't have surprised me if there would have been a location where it would be disastrous to open an offering. Which luckily there isn't one (at least not the ones I tested ).
LOL Dude you are the MAN!!!!
Whenever i read a thread where someone is bored with this game may i point them to you and this thread? This is one of many reasons i love this game. People like you and Darren_Kiltor are quite simply astonishingly brilliant. You guys have never ever said there isnt enough to do in the game. and i love you for that.
Thank you.
When the devs hit a wall and cant churn out enough content you guys make up stuff to do. That is just plain excellent.
Developers heads up give people like this an accolade for all their effort. Seriously!!
This should be rewarded.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 6
10-17-2010, 08:23 AM
While I feel humbled it is not appropriate to compare my little numbers dabling with the constant work effort of people like Darren_Kiltor. Way outta my league.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 7
11-25-2010, 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dukedom View Post
While I feel humbled it is not appropriate to compare my little numbers dabling with the constant work effort of people like Darren_Kiltor. Way outta my league.
Take a compliment, sir. You analyzed large volumes of data remarkably well.

You would've fit in well with the closed beta group: lots of procedural testing of stuff to verify it conformed to release standards. I'll explain more once the NDA lifts but it's stuff like this that shows some quality testing.

Outstanding job, Dukedom!
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 8
11-25-2010, 04:43 PM
You said you opened 144 on each difficulty setting. I'm wondering if you earned them at those difficulty. Or did you earn them on one, and then change the difficulty before opening them? If it's the latter, that could account for the different difficulties giving approximately the same results.

Thanks!
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 9
11-25-2010, 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaddyHawk
You said you opened 144 on each difficulty setting. I'm wondering if you earned them at those difficulty. Or did you earn them on one, and then change the difficulty before opening them? If it's the latter, that could account for the different difficulties giving approximately the same results.

Thanks!
This is what I'm wondering. I would assume the offerings would only change depending on what difficulty you earned them at.

I admire your persistence, but it could very well be some wasted effort if you earned them all the same way, then changed the variables, depending on how they work.

However, the analysis is still pretty awesome, and provides useful info... especially for people looking for consoles
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 10
11-26-2010, 02:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dukedom View Post
That makes a total of 2592 Offerings opened:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dukedom View Post
...my little numbers dabling
Dukedom, given how long it takes to collect them, that isn't 'little number dabbling' and you deserve the praise you are getting here. Very good job dude
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