Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 211
12-12-2011, 11:29 AM
Originally Posted by Sakarak
First of all, that assumes the retail value is the true value. Secondly, the blue boxes are one of the most common prizes and have $0 retail value. So, if I play ten times and get ten blue boxes, I have paid $12.50 and gotten nothing, certainly not worth more than what I paid for the red box lottery tickets.

Now, according to Cryptic the expect value of a box is 115 CP (retail value), but that assumes the law of large numbers (which requires an infinite number of trials). If you pick a finite number of trials n, there will exist the probability P that you will win nothing of value which you could calculate explicitly if Cryptic would release the odds of winning.

Even if the player has an advantage on the house (for example, a good blackjack player can get an advantage on the house by counting cards), it is still gambling, because there is still a possibility of things of value changing hands through a combination of skill and random chance.
Games of skill are not universally recognized as legitimate forms of gambling and, in fact, some places are more lenient on outright gambling than they are games of skill.

Still, this veers into territory that Q has now warned us not to go, which means any discussion now belongs outside these forums if it goes that way.

If that's the direction you want to discuss, I'd suggest another site, such as:
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 212
12-12-2011, 11:50 AM
Btw, to anyone considering buying these Holiday boxes who actually has time to gain a couple of levels with new toons, here's some math.

100 CP per box.

850 CP for 4 charcter slots.

800 CP equals 8 boxs.

4 charcters equals 4 boxes every 20 hours over 25 days.

24 hours in a day and there's 25 days, so that's 600 hours, so how many 20 hour marks in 600 hours? It should be possible to do the race 30 times with each character because 20 divided by 600 is 30.

So for 850 CP you can potentially get 120 boxes vs spending 800 CP on 8 boxes.

P.S. I'm not spending anything because I'm poor right now (well pretty much all the time but that's a life of unemployment for ya), but I did purchase a couple of character slots in a sale months ago. I've had 15 available to use in total of which I've only ever used 5 until Q's Winter Wonderland event started. Now I have 9/15 characters and probably will level up a new KDF toon tomorrow.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 213
12-12-2011, 11:50 AM
Somebody needs to tell them that it's illegal to run a lottery without specifically stating the odds of winning, something they refuse to do.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 214
12-12-2011, 12:07 PM
While we welcome the feedback and discussion of the chance box, the talk about how this breaks the law is unnecessary.

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