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Originally Posted by BROKEN1981
snip if a guy can run a first race and get the free ship and never bought cp and i spent about 100$ at that point he got the ship, how can u say that is a fair model?
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The winter boxes are exactly as fair as any other lottery. Let's be clear about the difference between "fair" and "likelihood".
fair ~ noun, verb, adjective
1. free from bias, dishonesty, or injustice: a fair decision; a fair judge.
2. legitimately sought, pursued, done, given, etc.; proper under the rules: a fair fight.
3. moderately large; ample: a fair income.
4. neither excellent nor poor; moderately or tolerably good: fair health.
5. marked by favoring conditions; likely; promising: in a fair way to succeed.
like·li·hood ~ noun
1. the state of being likely or probable; probability.
2. a probability or chance of something: There is a strong likelihood of his being elected.
3. Archaic . indication of a favorable end; promise.
This is where I see several people on the forums have a fundamental misunderstanding of how lotteries (like the winter boxes) work.
1. The boxes are as free from bias as any other lottery. Yes, rich people can buy boxes, but they can also buy more powerball tickets as well. An argument from financial ability is not correct here.
2. We all have a legitimate way to gain the boxes. The race we have to do is fair.
3 & 4. These definitions are not relevant to this discussion, as these are not the way fair is being used. We are not talking about issues like fair salaries, nor condition.
5. This (the least common usage of the term) is at the heart of the matter. People seem to think that the lottery is an inherently unfair way to gain the ship (or other prizes, but mostly the ship). However, if you discount financial ability, everyone has the same likelihood a given box opening and revealing the ship. The chance values do not change from one person to another or from one box to another. Each box is its own instance of flipping a coin.
That one guy happened to flip heads on his coin (box) on the first (free) flip. You've bought additional flips and all of them including the free one have been tails.
That is exactly fair and follows from the likelihood values Heretic set up.
If you buy a powerball lottery ticket and lose do you complain this much about "fairness"? You rolled the dice and lost. You then bought a bunch more rolls and lost. That is how gambling works and it is perfectly fair.