Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 1 Sampling Method?
02-17-2012, 07:50 AM
Do we know what kind of sampling method Cryptic is using for the lottery? I'm assuming it is sampling with replacement because that is the easiest to do. I wouldn't really think they wrote an algorithm to keep track of everyone's winnings.

I think that there is also a misconception among people who don't really understand how sampling with replacement vs sampling without replacement works.

Contrary to what one might think, if you are using sampling with replacement and you have a 10% chance to get a success; that doesn't mean you are guaranteed a success after ten random samples.

Let's say you have a pool of 100 numbers. You randomly pick a number from the pool and record it, then you place it back into the pool. You can pick that number multiple times during your 100 random sample selections and you may even never pick a particular number that is the number you are looking for.

That is generally how lotteries are conducted and I think there is a misconception that if the Galor or Jem Hadar ship has a drop rate of 0.5% then all one has to do is open 200 boxes and you will be guaranteed one of those ships. That would be the case if they were using sampling without replacement, but I'd almost bet the farm that they are using sampling with replacement.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 2
02-17-2012, 07:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maziken
Do we know what kind of sampling method Cryptic is using for the lottery?
No, and they arent going to tell us.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 3
02-17-2012, 08:01 AM
They're probably just using RNG without samples, pools or anything else.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 4
02-17-2012, 08:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The.Grand.Nagus View Post
No, and they arent going to tell us.
Well, three employees have said it's chance and one has said most of the devs think the number should be public but were unprepared for people being upset about gambling on the fiorums and think revealing the odds would just make people angrier at this point.

My advice: hoard as much EC as possible. Buy one of these ships on the exchange. Your odds are 100% then.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 5
02-17-2012, 08:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leviathan99
My advice: hoard as much EC as possible. Buy one of these ships on the exchange. Your odds are 100% then.
Precisely!

In-fact, the numbers are already down to 94 million in some instances. If some of the boasts going around about how much EC people can stockpile are correct, then alot of you should be able to just waltz right in and get one for 100% certainty and 0% cash.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 6
02-17-2012, 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leviathan99
Well, three employees have said it's chance and one has said most of the devs think the number should be public but were unprepared for people being upset about gambling on the fiorums and think revealing the odds would just make people angrier at this point.

My advice: hoard as much EC as possible. Buy one of these ships on the exchange. Your odds are 100% then.
Yeah, so telling us that the odds would anger us even more doesn't tell us at all that the odds are screwed up.
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