Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 191
05-04-2012, 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The.Grand.Nagus View Post
The fact that someone can get a drop on their first run and someone else may not get a drop after 1000 proves that time and effort are not the determining factors in this system. Raised chances do not change the fact that it is still completely random.

(snip)

Someone may be doing a STF for the first time with a highly practiced group of friends. Yet that person could get a drop on their very first run, while the highly practiced group who have been doing them for ages may not. That random drop completely ignores how much time or effort you have put into the STFs.
If (and that's a big "if") the "poor player gets lucky on their first run" was the norm , then your argument would be valid .
As long as it is a theoretical possibility ... (or mostly outside the norm -- which I tend to believe is the case in STF drops for "noobs") -- then I'm sorry , but I have to respectfully disagree with something that you claim to present as "fact" .

Besides , how do you value one theory over the other ?
You have three theories :

1) Skill + Time = faster game play = more time to play more missions = more chances to get lucky

2) Luck > Skill + Time

3) Only Luck is Needed (not Skill + Time)

All are true in one sense or another (in regards to STF's) , with some (1+2) having been proven more in practice than other .

I have yet to meet someone with the "got lucky on the first time" story .
The closest I have come to hearing that is from someone who got a set in 40+ runs .
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 192
05-04-2012, 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The.Grand.Nagus View Post
And yet, someone who simply tags along and does virtually nothing could in fact get a drop, while the highly skilled player in the group may not. Therefore the drop completely ignores skill.
I disagree. If the other people who "took up the slack" had no skill then the mission would be a failure and there would be no loot chance at all. So it takes at least some skill by one ore more people in a PUG to prevent failure to even reach the point to get the random drop. Therefore skill is indeed a factor in getting a drop.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 193
05-04-2012, 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aelfwin View Post
If (and that's a big "if") the "poor player gets lucky on their first run" was the norm , then your argument would be valid .
It really doesnt matter if it is the norm or not, because telling the guy who did a thousand runs and got no drops that he is only in the minority doesnt actually make him feel any better. The thing is, its not like this situation *has* to be this way. They could have easily designed the system so that these items had a definite value and that everyone was on the same playing field. But they *intentionally* designed it so that the drop was based on luck, not how much skill or effort you have personally put into the STFs.

Quote:
The closest I have come to hearing that is from someone who got a set in 40+ runs .
Here you go from the man himself:

http://youtu.be/y_n-XyAGUDU#t=19m27s

Quote:
Originally Posted by Asakara
I disagree. If the other people who "took up the slack" had no skill then the mission would be a failure and there would be no loot chance at all. So it takes at least some skill by one ore more people in a PUG to prevent failure to even reach the point to get the random drop. Therefore skill is indeed a factor in getting a drop.
But not the skill of the person who actually got the drop, which is what I was referring to.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 194
05-04-2012, 09:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asakara
I disagree. If the other people who "took up the slack" had no skill then the mission would be a failure and there would be no loot chance at all. So it takes at least some skill by one ore more people in a PUG to prevent failure to even reach the point to get the random drop. Therefore skill is indeed a factor in getting a drop.
Yes, but not necessarily for the people who actually pulled more than their share of weight.

There are no bonuses for being awesome, there are no penalties for being terrible and there is nothing in the rewards table to separate one person's effort from another.

I'm OK with that, not everyone needs to be a superstar in a video game.

On the other hand, a deterministic method is fair to anyone willing to put in the grind.

You don't need to take away the lucky rolls, but a deterministic reward scheme in addition to that makes sure that your outliers get a fair experience.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 195
05-04-2012, 09:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trueheart
I think you're trying to minimize the magnitude that "luck" has... Yes the time, effort and skill (TES from now) play a factor, but are you trying to argue that they are even remotely comparable to the amount of luck required to get the set?
If I'm allowed to quote myself : "as things now stand Luck is the deciding factor , but by no means the only deciding factor ."
(post #180 , this thread)


Quote:
My point of view is that the two are so disparate from each other that it's barely worth mentioning the TES required when compared to the ridiculously low percentage chance a player has at getting the drops.
And my POV is from participating in 3 in-game channels dedicated to EliteSTF's + cross fleet organised STF runs) .
I see the players who have run a lot of STF's and have not seen a single drop .
I see the players who turn bitter , and/or start to believe that they will NEVER get lucky .
And I see ... or rather I do not see the players who have been driven away by this "luck" based mechanic , and I hear the players who refrain from doing STF's because they do not see the point of this type of grind .

And based on all that I have seen and experienced , I am a bit angered when someone comes along ans say that not just my time, effort and skill , but all the time, effort and skill I see being spent around me does not count for squat because only the "random game mechanic" matters .
I can't point my finger on why I find that a bit insulting or belittling , but I do .
I can only say that it's akin to saying to a STO PVP player that all his skills , tactics and time means nothing because at the end of the day he does nothing to advance the Fed/Kling war one way or another .

Well all that , and ... -- I recall a time ... before the STF's were changed , that we used to run those long STF's ad nauseum for the fun / challenge / camaraderie (not like the hamster/wheel/cheese equivalent we have now) .
And to be honest , I find the only luck matters , not the time, effort and skill argument to be a little insulting to those memories as well . My nostalgia has spoken ! :p


Quote:
I also think there's no reason to believe a person who has the set has really any skill at all, considering it is possible for a player to contribute nothing of significance to the team effort and at the end of the mission just get lucky.
At the risk of repeating myself : that would be a valid argument if it was the norm .
As it stands , it is a possibility , but not the norm .
Your experience may differ .
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 196
05-04-2012, 09:33 AM
This statement pretty much proves the point I've been making:

http://youtu.be/y_n-XyAGUDU#t=19m27s

Someone who is new to STFs and obviously doesnt have much time or skill involved with them gets 3 drops in 2 days, while people in Jupiter Fleet who have done them over 200 times dont get a single drop. The drop completely ignores the skill and effort of the individual player who gets the drop.

And just for the record, I have no personal interest in this gear. It does look cool, but I prefer the traditional Trek look rather than the space marine look. But just because I have no interest in getting this gear myself does not mean I have no interest in the people who do want it.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 197
05-04-2012, 11:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The.Grand.Nagus View Post
Someone who is new to STFs and obviously doesnt have much time or skill involved with them gets 3 drops in 2 days, while people in Jupiter Fleet who have done them over 200 times dont get a single drop. The drop completely ignores the skill and effort of the individual player who gets the drop.
I'm not sure if I can find the idiot millionaire who won the lotto and posted a video on youtube , but the princible is the same .
There are millionaires who have won lotteries .
We know they exist .

However , statistically , there are many more millionaires who play the lottery casually or all the time VS millionaires who don't play the lottery at all and did play one time and won .

The time + effort + money spent is statistically on the side of the lotto players who play the lottery casually or all the time .
Same thing with STF awards .
Statistically you have a better "luck" at winning . That does not mean you win all the time ... neither in lotto or STF's .
Then again there are ppl who win the lotto more than once in their lifetime .
But that is a statistical improbability . Same as winning 3 STF drops in 3 days .
That can happen too ... , it's just not the norm .
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 198
05-04-2012, 11:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aelfwin View Post
I'm not sure if I can find the idiot millionaire who won the lotto and posted a video on youtube , but the princible is the same .
There are millionaires who have won lotteries .
We know they exist .

However , statistically , there are many more millionaires who play the lottery casually or all the time VS millionaires who don't play the lottery at all and did play one time and won .

The time + effort + money spent is statistically on the side of the lotto players who play the lottery casually or all the time .
Same thing with STF awards .
Statistically you have a better "luck" at winning . That does not mean you win all the time ... neither in lotto or STF's .
Then again there are ppl who win the lotto more than once in their lifetime .
But that is a statistical improbability . Same as winning 3 STF drops in 3 days .
That can happen too ... , it's just not the norm .
Here is my previous response to that argument:

Quote:
It really doesnt matter if it is the norm or not, because telling the guy who did a thousand runs and got no drops that he is only in the minority doesnt actually make him feel any better. The thing is, its not like this situation *has* to be this way. They could have easily designed the system so that these items had a definite value and that everyone was on the same playing field. But they *intentionally* designed it so that the drop was based on luck, not how much skill or effort you have personally put into the STFs.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 199
05-04-2012, 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aelfwin View Post
At the risk of repeating myself : that would be a valid argument if it was the norm .
As it stands , it is a possibility , but not the norm .
Your experience may differ .
Ok, so what do you propose the norm is? Someone getting them after 100 runs? 200? Do we honestly have anyway of determining what the norm is supposed to be? Based on my experience and what I've read the norm seems to be a few people getting extremely lucky and everyone else being extremely unlucky.

For example, I have 3 Mk. 12 space shields from running Infected Space... which I've run the least, around 20 times give or take a few. I ran KA Ground 100+ times and only recently received the tech for that one. I'd like to say at some point I should eventually have fallen into whatever reasonable "norm" is set to be established but my own experience has shown I tend to be on both ends of the spectrum. 3 rare drops from one STF, and after 100+ other STF runs only 1. To me that's a very broken drop rate calculation and by my own admission my skill, time and effort in Infected Space was a fraction of what I put in for KA Ground.

But again I hope I'm being clear in that my issue isn't that STFs don't take skill, etc... it's that your chance at getting the loot doesn't matter how "work as a team", how much DPS you do, whether you get the optional or not, how much you heal others on the team, there's absolutely nothing in the mission you can do that has a direct impact on your chances of getting the rare tech. Would it be bad for that random factor to be eliminated and simply make the loot something you get if you work hard and long enough?

I mean no insult to you, it's just difficult to understand how the current system can be viewed as beneficial to the game by anyone. And again, no offense, but someone who got really lucky and already has a complete set arguing how the system is fine seems a bit biased. I respect the exclusivity of the sets and that you prefer having them remain ultra-rare... but all I'm proposing is that acquiring the sets is more dependent upon skill and dedication rather than being extremely lucky.

I have the feeling that there are way more skilled and dedicated players in this game than there are lucky ones... and perhaps some of the lucky players here have let the fact they have something many other skilled players want, and honestly deserve, go to their heads.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 200
05-04-2012, 12:20 PM
i am perfectly happy with my all mk 11 stuff, took some grinding but it was worth it. mk 12 stuff is not necessary, its not going to close some skill gap or make any meaningful difference for any of you. if you want the cool ground costumes just wait till the current best becomes the mk 11, i get the feeling its gonna happen sooner then later.
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