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Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 11
05-07-2012, 01:40 PM
We only can compare numbers at last of 2012... even diferent quartes... we'll see.

With the number of galor/jem'hadar/ferengi ships we can say that they sell lots of keys. With the VA ships (even both flagships) and the new carrier, we can think that they are doing lots of money.

Criptic say that they have new and more workers that is always a good thing.

I only have a "question": will survive sto to his own seventh season.... I can't forget that always the most time-longer Star Trek series have a "final" seventh season.... I have fear about that!

I hope that STO live longer and prosper... that will be good for all us, Cryptic, players and owners.


Thanks to everybody or fun, sorry for my bad english.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 12
05-07-2012, 01:45 PM
I haven't really been following up with them on STO, I've been having too much fun playing it. I HAVE been hot on the tail of The Old Republic...all I can say with that title is...lol

Bioware initially said they were looking at about 10-15 million subscriber months to just BREAK EVEN with the production cost of the game...As of 2 weeks after the 1.2 patch was released, they are now estimating over 84 million subscriber months JUST to break even on what it cost to develop the game.

The average PEAK users online for ToR is around 190,000k to 200,000k....Coming off of the sales of millions of copies, of which only 1.7 were "activated" thats really sad, and rightfully so, the game is atrocious.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 13
05-07-2012, 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Isror View Post
I haven't really been following up with them on STO, I've been having too much fun playing it. I HAVE been hot on the tail of The Old Republic...all I can say with that title is...lol

Bioware initially said they were looking at about 10-15 million subscriber months to just BREAK EVEN with the production cost of the game...As of 2 weeks after the 1.2 patch was released, they are now estimating over 84 million subscriber months JUST to break even on what it cost to develop the game.

The average PEAK users online for ToR is around 190,000k to 200,000k....Coming off of the sales of millions of copies, of which only 1.7 were "activated" thats really sad, and rightfully so, the game is atrocious.
BioWare actually said about a year prior to release they needed 1 million to break even, and the game became profitable and a 'good investment at anything north of 1.5 mission subs (and also stated plans to have tch in place that would keep pace with adding 2 million subbers per month - so it's a safe bet they were indeed thinking "WoW Killer" or major WoW competitor. Then in February of this year, somehow the number was revised to 500K to break even and anything north of one mission was a 'good investment' - IE - the damage control started once they saw that SWToR did look like the "WoW Killer" they had hoped for.

The funny thing is in February SWToR Devs stated they had 1.7 million subs; and in March thiought they'd break 2 million soon; yet today we have their quarterly report - and as of March 31, 2012 SWToR has 1.3 million subs (still a very respecable number and over their high original 'break even point'; and defifinitely into the 'profitable' range of the later adjusted lower 'break ven' point.)

I do have to ask though - why did they try to claim they were moving up towards 2 million in early March when the March 31, 2012 show a decline of 400K? Makes you wonder if EA/BioWare is as 'up front' as some folks like to claim.

If they cam turn things around andmake the game grow in subs massively - good for them, but at this point, I think it's just more evidence that WoWs gargantuan success was a fluke of circumstances that are unlikely to ever be repeated in the Western MMO market - and if you compare ANY western MMO to WoW in terms of sub numbers and revenue and somehow think WoW is the stick by which all MMO success is mesured, EVERY Western MMO is a DISMAL FAILURE financially when compared to WoW on those terms.

In the end, long term MMO profitability hinges on:

- Being able to successfully amortize, pay off/recoup your base development costs over the first 3 - 5 years.

- Having enough cash flow and liquidity to maintain day to day operations, as well as continue development of said MMO (IE develop new content and systems)

- Keeping the investors and upper management happy with regard to performence and player retention in a sub-based model/ability to add RMT items and game services that players want to pay for in a F2P model.

If your MMO survives long enough to pay off it's initial development cost and also pay fopr any licensing fees; the profitability goes up for th Developer too; but again, that takes years.

If an MMO can't do the above, it usually gets shut down.

Do I think SWToR is in danger of being shut down? No - as long as it keeps 1 million or so subs, EA will keep it going and expand it.

Do I think EA/BioWare/Lucas Arts are really happy with the success SWToR has seen to date? No. Fro all the comments they made leading up to launch, they EXPECTED to really and openly complete with WoW and were at least hoping to see 5 - 6 million; if not equal WoW in subscription numbers within SWToR's first year.

Could EA/BioWare/LA pull opff a miricle and get that before the end of the year? hey, anything is possible; but in all probability, I don't think that'll happen.

As for STO: In a F2P model, overall concurrent players don't matter as much. What matters somewhat is those still willing to pay a montkly fee (and I think that number is small); and those who buy CP with real cash on a regular basis. <--- This is the player that PWE/Cryptic wants/needs to court in a F2P model, as generaly, once this type is hooked, they spend a lot more than $15 a month on the game - and may even take long breaks, but when they come back, usually spend again to get the new stuff that went into the C-Store since their last log into the game. this person may not be you or I, but they do exist, and they are what mkes F2P more lucrative then a sub-based model if you can keep them returning.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 14
05-08-2012, 02:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kobayashi Maru
Youíve made some pretty brazen statements here. Care to share your sources?

Nothing youíve mentioned here has anything to do with Crypticís decision to go F2P or their profitability therein. They already had a fair amount to say about FTP and how successful it is, so Iím not sure what you want them to do. If you are talking about a public statement, now is probably not the best time for them given the recent revelation of their huge data breach.
My sources are from Dan himself on various threads. He may not have said that they are not going to do any more F/E or that they are stopping doing the KDF faction, however if you read what he says, it's pretty much that they are stopping both simply because they have to look at getting more content out that is cheaper.

As to ship prices, well just look at the C-Store.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain_Revo
who knows and who cares. as long as the game is still open and there is new stuff coming i could not care less what the exact numbers are.
So what if you don't care. Some do. Less people playing = less profit = less content = closed down game.

Just because it's not closed down now, doesn't mean it's not failing and "could" be closing down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anazonda View Post
Cryptic has never been a fan of publishing their numbers...

But... If you ask me... No... I don't think STO is doing as well as cryptic hoped...
They do it when they want the PR spin. http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/02...-free-to-play/

This is why I am asking why they haven't mentioned anything about STO and it's months after F2P was announced. But I do agree with you that it's not doing as good as they hoped, hence all the "reviewing", time gated content, re-runs, a new currency and Lock Boxes.

It must be even worse than I thought, after one of Cryptics biggest fans has actually started to question whats going on -
http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/05...-gates-frustr/
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 15
05-08-2012, 03:16 AM
They've doubled their team from what it was when it was Subscriber base.

They are doing well.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 16
05-08-2012, 04:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomas45 View Post
They've doubled their team from what it was when it was Subscriber base.

They are doing well.
The last company I worked for expanded from 5 employees to 15 in a year... Today they no longer exist because they could not draw in customers...

Edit:

And it was not because our company did bad products... We were working for some high profile companies and government institutions (schools, safety ministry), who stayed with us...
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 17
05-08-2012, 04:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomas45 View Post
They've doubled their team from what it was when it was Subscriber base.

They are doing well.
And? What have they shown for it so far?

Show me where they are doing well, because I don't have to show you how they are not. We don't even know if they managed to get cups back in the kitchen, or if they managed to replace the broken computer with a Zx81.

Doubled their team and still cannot produce much? More likely these people are working on NW or the other unammed game that we all know is called "Scratch card".
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 18
05-08-2012, 07:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Solomace View Post
And? What have they shown for it so far?

Show me where they are doing well, because I don't have to show you how they are not. We don't even know if they managed to get cups back in the kitchen, or if they managed to replace the broken computer with a Zx81.

Doubled their team and still cannot produce much? More likely these people are working on NW or the other unammed game that we all know is called "Scratch card".
Well all I can to point too right now is what has been released this year...

Oh and Season 6 coming in just over a month. If you want to have your 4 riders of the Apocalypse party then at least wait until the 'actual' content update you've been waiting for, comes out.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 19
05-08-2012, 07:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anazonda View Post
The last company I worked for expanded from 5 employees to 15 in a year... Today they no longer exist because they could not draw in customers...

Edit:

And it was not because our company did bad products... We were working for some high profile companies and government institutions (schools, safety ministry), who stayed with us...
I've never seen STO with so many players on but truth be told I have no numbers as none have been released. Therefore all I know is what I can see and what I see is an active healthy game. Saying that STO is not drawing players in is completely unbased for the moment.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 20
05-08-2012, 07:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomas45 View Post
I've never seen STO with so many players on but truth be told I have no numbers as none have been released. Therefore all I know is what I can see and what I see is an active healthy game. Saying that STO is not drawing players in is completely unbased for the moment.
I on the other hand see the same faces everywhere, and very few compared to the period where "The 2800" was running...

Sector space is no where near as crowded as it was during launch, and fewer newb questions are being asked in chat...

To me, that is not a sign of a healthy game.
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