Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 11
06-04-2012, 03:21 PM
This is a pretty common problem among those who do not understand basic probability and statistics. You cannot tell whether the drop rate has changed by simply noticing it. You have to establish a level of statistical significance and do a significance test to see if the rate change is statistically significant.

You can have 100 missions in a row where someone gets the prototype and 100 missions in a row where nobody gets the prototype without any changes to the drop rate.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 12
06-04-2012, 03:28 PM
The drop rates have always been skewed as I get crap every time nowadays when I started I got 2 of the MACO space set then I got stuck in a rut in the cure space and haven't been able to get out of it.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 13 This is true but..
06-04-2012, 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sakarak
This is a pretty common problem among those who do not understand basic probability and statistics. You cannot tell whether the drop rate has changed by simply noticing it. You have to establish a level of statistical significance and do a significance test to see if the rate change is statistically significant.

You can have 100 missions in a row where someone gets the prototype and 100 missions in a row where nobody gets the prototype without any changes to the drop rate.
The more people that "notice" a change in drop rate the more statiical evidence we will have(without knowing the probability numbers they use)The more people who do the STF and notice the difference x the amount of STF's done can give a general idea as to what is going on.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 14
06-04-2012, 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by levi3
The more people that "notice" a change in drop rate the more statiical evidence we will have(without knowing the probability numbers they use)The more people who do the STF and notice the difference x the amount of STF's done can give a general idea as to what is going on.
Untrue, because that can be due to sampling biases such as confirmation bias or and a host of other explanations other than a statistically significant change in the probability of receiving a drop.

Unfortunately, most Occidental countries do a really bad job teaching math, science, and critical thinking, so these kind of illogical conclusions are quite common.

It should also be noted that Cryptic has noted in the past a change in the drop rates of prototype tech and no new annotation has been made to the patch notes.

The bottom line is there is no credible evidence of any change beyond a few people's anecdotal reports, and we know that drawing conclusions from that commits the logical fallacies of anecdotal evidence and hasty generalization.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sakarak
Untrue, because that can be due to sampling biases such as confirmation bias or and a host of other explanations other than a statistically significant change in the probability of receiving a drop.

Unfortunately, most Occidental countries do a really bad job teaching math, science, and critical thinking, so these kind of illogical conclusions are quite common.

It should also be noted that Cryptic has noted in the past a change in the drop rates of prototype tech and no new annotation has been made to the patch notes.

The bottom line is there is no credible evidence of any change beyond a few people's anecdotal reports, and we know that drawing conclusions from that commits the logical fallacies of anecdotal evidence and hasty generalization.
You talk of probabilities - there is a strong probability that they are bringing out a new level of gear and the old gear will be purchasable with edc's - it is probable in this case that they might want to lower the stats for extremely rare loot drop - and if new gear and or money is involved it is probable that a company would do this without making an official announcment.

My whole comment was more about "possiblities" then "probabilities" - since we are not privy to the info as to what the probabilites are or can be derved at we must work in the realm of "possiblities"

It is more possible that there could be some behind the scenes pre-season 6 "tweeking" that would only be noticed by proposing this question to as many people as possible. Unfortunatly these forums do not provide a big enough sample to make a real judgment - or logical conclusion - hence my almost tongue and check "conspiracy afoot" question

But this discussion is becoming illogical because it is a circluar argument without knowing what(if) any changes have been made and what the ratios and numbers used are. Since this is something they refuse to tell us we will have to fall back on aneodotal evidence and generalisations!
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 16
06-04-2012, 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by levi3
But this discussion is becoming illogical because it is a circluar argument without knowing what(if) any changes have been made and what the ratios and numbers used are. Since this is something they refuse to tell us we will have to fall back on aneodotal evidence and generalisations!
So I have to ask, what are you trying to get out of this discussion?

I've gotten more tech over the past week then I have over the previous 2 weeks doing half as many stfs. Of course I could come on the forums and say that there might be a conspiracy that Cryptic is increasing the loot drops to get people to spend their current proto techs before new variants hit the game and we have to grind all over again.... when in reality I probably just got better rolls this week
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 17
06-04-2012, 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by levi3
You talk of probabilities - there is a strong probability that they are bringing out a new level of gear and the old gear will be purchasable with edc's - it is probable in this case that they might want to lower the stats for extremely rare loot drop - and if new gear and or money is involved it is probable that a company would do this without making an official announcment.

My whole comment was more about "possiblities" then "probabilities" - since we are not privy to the info as to what the probabilites are or can be derved at we must work in the realm of "possiblities"

It is more possible that there could be some behind the scenes pre-season 6 "tweeking" that would only be noticed by proposing this question to as many people as possible. Unfortunatly these forums do not provide a big enough sample to make a real judgment - or logical conclusion - hence my almost tongue and check "conspiracy afoot" question

But this discussion is becoming illogical because it is a circluar argument without knowing what(if) any changes have been made and what the ratios and numbers used are. Since this is something they refuse to tell us we will have to fall back on aneodotal evidence and generalisations!
Your scenario is not "probable". It is simply highly speculative reasoning for which you have no good evidence to support. It is also completely false. If you were actually keeping careful track of drop rates you could detect a statistically significant change in the drop rates, but since you are not, you are falling back on the classic argumentum ad ignorantiam (argument from ignorance) logical fallacy.

Also, you fail to grasp the whole point of what I wrote. The problem with the forums is not the sample size. It is the terrible bias of the way you are collecting your data. If you wanted to, you could take a perfectly good sample from forum users.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 18
06-05-2012, 12:28 AM
Everyone knows how badly broken the drops are for rare and very rare proto tech in this game.

Im currently in a situation where I have 3 characters each have 2/3rds of one set completed. 2 are stuck on IGE and the other is stuck on KAGE. So far toon a stuck on IGE has done 76 runs and no PSG, toon b has done 56 runs on ige and no psg and toon c stuck on KAGE has done 57 runs and no armor.

The other 2 drops on all toons that they currently have came within 20 to 30 runs.

I have finally decided (and those who know me know that I am an avvid STF player and you have probably run with me in an STF) that once I complete these 3 characters I will no longer run any STF's ever again. I dont care for new sets or new costumes, I am sick fed up to the gut of how broken the whole grinding system in this game is.

I do believe that whilst random, and it is random as it doesnt matter how much dsp you do, how many revives, how many heal yadda yadda ya you do, there is some sort of bug that means a character gets stuck on 2/3rds of a set

Gozer said in his interview on stoked that if you want that 25% you have to work for it ? but to the point of making yourself sick ? its not worth it it really isnt. Im on holiday at the moment and yesterday I played a total of 18 hours and I didnt even see 1 drop no proto (blue or purple) but plenty of other bad loot.

But thats it for me, I refuse to play this sorry broken system anymore, Im gonna finish these toons off then take up something else in game which is far less frustrating and more rewarding.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 19
06-05-2012, 12:38 AM
if i get junk, im leaving without a word,
if i get proto, ill say it.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 20
06-05-2012, 03:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleeves
I still belvie the moon landing was faked and were is the 2nd gunman that shot JFK, and anyone get a photo of the aurora jet. The one that replaced the SR-71. I would put nothing past Cryptic/PW..
Aurora was cancelled because we started building UAV's and better satellites. Pretty soon no pilots will actually climb into an aircraft. My company builds the X-45 UCAV.

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