Lt. Commander
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# 1 "2045: A New Era for Humanity"
06-13-2012, 08:58 PM
http://youtu.be/01hbkh4hXEk

LOL. Well, at least it wound make an interesting movie
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# 2
06-13-2012, 09:32 PM
Well, that was just...uncomfortable to watch...
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# 3
06-13-2012, 09:40 PM
Interesting. Very interesting.
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# 4
06-13-2012, 09:48 PM
This is in line with my views.

However, I question whether the people who disagree with this can do so for reasons that are not fundamentally religious or political. Which makes it an awkward topic.
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# 5
06-13-2012, 10:20 PM
This is... An aggressive timetable.

it's also the timetable (dating from the present) that far-advanced scientists have had for... decades? They lost me at 'flying car' and I was laughing outright at the idea of a fully-functional cybernetic avatar by 2025.

Leviathan, I'll try and take you up on that disagreement. My fundamental argument against this one is economic. There is simply no incentive for companies and corporations to move at this aggressive a pace, especially on cloud-funded research projects like the video seems to be advocating. I'm also very interested in seeing what those trans-humanist parties do when they start entering politics.

Frankly, we don't have the worldwide economic cohesion to make this radical of a change without destroying the current economic systems. And by doing that, we'll set ourselves back decades if not centuries in the ability to support the raw-material and labor requirements for such things.

I'll start paying attention when they produce more than a video and a conference. And when labs can get a pair of robotic legs to do more than walk in a straight line on a treadmill.
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# 6
06-13-2012, 10:51 PM
Let's just do it.
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# 7
06-13-2012, 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stargate525 View Post
This is... An aggressive timetable.

it's also the timetable (dating from the present) that far-advanced scientists have had for... decades? They lost me at 'flying car' and I was laughing outright at the idea of a fully-functional cybernetic avatar by 2025.

Leviathan, I'll try and take you up on that disagreement. My fundamental argument against this one is economic. There is simply no incentive for companies and corporations to move at this aggressive a pace, especially on cloud-funded research projects like the video seems to be advocating. I'm also very interested in seeing what those trans-humanist parties do when they start entering politics.

Frankly, we don't have the worldwide economic cohesion to make this radical of a change without destroying the current economic systems. And by doing that, we'll set ourselves back decades if not centuries in the ability to support the raw-material and labor requirements for such things.

I'll start paying attention when they produce more than a video and a conference. And when labs can get a pair of robotic legs to do more than walk in a straight line on a treadmill.
Then you'll never be paying attention, because as you say corporations, politicians, and the other beneficiaries of the current system have no incentive to support efforts to dismantle that system.

Now, personally, I'm not a fan of making grandiose predictions about human progress, I feel it diminishes the credibility of transhumanist philosophy when nutters like Kurzweil start claiming we're going to have a "singularity" by whatever daft date(typically two decades from whenever he makes the prediction, and he's made them quite a few times now over the years), especially when they start describing what technology will lead up to and what will happen in the wake of such an event, both of which predictions are completely antithetical to the concept of "singularity"; an event resulting from an as-yet unknown technological advancement which will speed up the pace of human progress to such a degree that it is impossible for us to define what "humanity" will mean beyond it.

However, I do support a more modest, more considered, more nonspecific form of futurism, because I don't think we will ever achieve anything without ambition, and I think that desiring to improve ourselves collectively and individually through the judicious application of technology is an ambition worth pursuing. Just leave the specific prediction to the science fiction authors, that's their job, to make extrapolations from modernity, modest or fantastical, and use those extrapolations to build worlds which fire our imaginations. If you style yourself a scientist however, or a person of reason concerned with the future of science, I think you have an obligation to take a more grounded approach.

As to robotic legs, you're looking in the wrong place chief, the real work is being done in the field of medical prosthetics, where we're approaching parity with normal biological function in terms of limbs, and are beginning to make serious progress treating vision and auditory disorders with technological aids. There's also promising work being done with 3D bioprinters capable of using synthetic collagen to manufacture the underlying structure of organs, the resulting scaffold from which can be placed in a bioreactor with stem cells from the patient, meaning virtually no potential for organ rejection(of course, this is still in the earliest stages of efficacy and safety testing, so it's not going to be in your local hospital for quite a while). "Necessity is the mother of invention" may be a cliche, but it's also a truism, and while engineers and scientists messing about in a lab or trying to design a sophisticated walking Roomba have made some worthwhile contributions to human progress, you'll always find the most intriguing and advanced developments in fields where success is not merely laudable, but imperative.
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# 8
06-14-2012, 08:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sosolidshoe View Post
Then you'll never be paying attention, because as you say corporations, politicians, and the other beneficiaries of the current system have no incentive to support efforts to dismantle that system.

Now, personally, I'm not a fan of making grandiose predictions about human progress, I feel it diminishes the credibility of transhumanist philosophy when nutters like Kurzweil start claiming we're going to have a "singularity" by whatever daft date(typically two decades from whenever he makes the prediction, and he's made them quite a few times now over the years), especially when they start describing what technology will lead up to and what will happen in the wake of such an event, both of which predictions are completely antithetical to the concept of "singularity"; an event resulting from an as-yet unknown technological advancement which will speed up the pace of human progress to such a degree that it is impossible for us to define what "humanity" will mean beyond it.

However, I do support a more modest, more considered, more nonspecific form of futurism, because I don't think we will ever achieve anything without ambition, and I think that desiring to improve ourselves collectively and individually through the judicious application of technology is an ambition worth pursuing. Just leave the specific prediction to the science fiction authors, that's their job, to make extrapolations from modernity, modest or fantastical, and use those extrapolations to build worlds which fire our imaginations. If you style yourself a scientist however, or a person of reason concerned with the future of science, I think you have an obligation to take a more grounded approach.

As to robotic legs, you're looking in the wrong place chief, the real work is being done in the field of medical prosthetics, where we're approaching parity with normal biological function in terms of limbs, and are beginning to make serious progress treating vision and auditory disorders with technological aids. There's also promising work being done with 3D bioprinters capable of using synthetic collagen to manufacture the underlying structure of organs, the resulting scaffold from which can be placed in a bioreactor with stem cells from the patient, meaning virtually no potential for organ rejection(of course, this is still in the earliest stages of efficacy and safety testing, so it's not going to be in your local hospital for quite a while). "Necessity is the mother of invention" may be a cliche, but it's also a truism, and while engineers and scientists messing about in a lab or trying to design a sophisticated walking Roomba have made some worthwhile contributions to human progress, you'll always find the most intriguing and advanced developments in fields where success is not merely laudable, but imperative.
Ia agree with you completely. I am actually aware of the bio-prosthetic advancements you mentioned, but my point was more geared to the android butlers spoken about in the video. Can't use a brain to run those without serious legal issues.

But I'm one of the few who believe that the singularity has already happened. Either the telegraph or the internet, take your pick. It revolutionized the world and, in both cases, almost no one saw it coming. It's actually a little bit comforting to know that we're hitting a hard barrier of scale when it comes to processors, and that we'll need a completely different method of building them if we want them to improve past that. As for building an AI or a computer capable of 'storing' a human... If we were complex enough to understand our brain it would be too complex for us to understand.
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# 9
06-14-2012, 02:24 PM
I don't see that happening in my lifetime, or my childrens' lifetimes for that matter. Being in the military, and having actually deployed to Iraq, has given me a perspective that not many other people have. The idea that humanity could reach spiritual enlightenment and work to better itself is great, but there's just one problem, and that's the human condition itself. The biggest part of that condition is man's lust for power. Wherever there is a society, there will always be someone who wants to be in control. Look at history and tell me I'm wrong. The other part is man's rebellious nature. We as humans naturally don't want someone telling us what we can and cannot do. An undertaking such as this wil require a massive amount of funding to be successful, and that will leave it open for corruption if it hasn't happened already. Those people who seek power usually have a means to that end, and that means is almost always lots and lots of money. Once it has been corrupted, any noble purpose it may have had is gone, and this is simply another means to satisfy that person's lust for power. The human race is naturally rebellious for any number reasons, some good and some not so much, but the fact remains that many humans, myself included, will see this as another attempt at domination, and therefore we will refuse to take part in this endeavor, while many will be enticed at the prospect of virtual immortality, many more will not. Of coarse those in charge of this project will see this as unacceptable. Naturally, a conflict will occur between these two groups. Whether that conflict be armed, legal, or otherwise remains to be seen, one thing is certain though, this won't be the universal cultural revolution that this video wants everyone to think it is.
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# 10
06-14-2012, 04:27 PM
I could go into the reasons why I don't think this will happen before Judgement Day, but religion is not allowed in the forums.
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