Quote:
Originally Posted by husanakx
Assuming someone ran over a cluster under the old system then you have to use this probability formula...
1  ( ( 1  x ) ^ y )
When you do that you find that there was a 87% chance to land at least one proc in a mine cluster... hence why anyone that ran mines ONLY ran chrons.

I'm avare of this formula, but for some reason I can't make it apply correctly in this circumstance... Iff you drop 100 mines, and 33 of them proc, doesn't that mean the proc chance is 33%? So if we devide by 20, to get 5 mines, the number of procs become 1.65 ... Or are we working with different definitions here? (proc chance vs proc rate, probability or statistics?) And more to the point, how does the game define it? And do the devs even know how?
Using your formula, you will never get a probability of more than 100% (one proc), even if you drop 100 mines with 99% chance each. Maybe college was to long ago, but that doesn't add up to me.
Let's backtrack... If 100 mines produce 33 procs, what is the probability of a single mine proc? I'd say 0.33%. But if the probability of one mine to proc is 33%, the probability of a proc per 100 mines will never be 100%.... Even though the mines will proc 33 times on average.
Damn, i'm down to running in circles now. Help! Help!
(I stand by my previous match, that 5 mines would deliver 1.66 procs on average)
EDIT: have we left out the probability of 2, 3, 4 and 5 procs per cluster? (just a thought)
EDIT2: The more I think of it, I'm sure that the probability value is not applicable when calculating statistics. My bet is we're working diferent definitions.