Captain
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,937
# 1 Economic Preditions for S7
10-26-2012, 06:15 AM
1) Dil > Zen exchange
I really think this will bottom out big time at toward the end of November as players progress in the reputation system along with more fleets hitting the 'expensive' fleet tiers and majorly reduced STF rewards to around 100-125 dil per Zen. I am hesitant to dump my zen atm though as I have a strange feeling a Ship sale will be coming up very soon and the Vesta(?) being released the week after that may drive up the price temporarily.

2) EC deflation
Now you think I'm crazy but I would put money down that for the first two months after S7 launches that this will happen increasing the relative value of EC as the amount in game decreases for the following reasons. Churn, I expect anywhere from 5%-10% of the playerbase to quit along with more of the playerbase returning to the game along with new blood to replace them. The reputation systems will also hit each and every player with a nice EC tax. And finally I would expect that STFs are a major source of 'created EC' from the loot boxes at the end that are being removed AFAIK. This is the one I'm slightly unsure on.

3) Doff price Skyrocket
With the added dilithium costs, huge new demands, and increased demands from players advancing the fleet system I think these guys and gals will become extremely expensive. But fear not for near the end of S7 the mega fleets will be just about done consuming them and become huge suppliers and the majority of players will be finishing off their reputation grinds. At this point the bubble should burst and the prices plummet.

Anyone else have some predictions?
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,642
# 2
10-26-2012, 06:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bareel View Post
1) Dil > Zen exchange
I really think this will bottom out big time at toward the end of November as players progress in the reputation system along with more fleets hitting the 'expensive' fleet tiers and majorly reduced STF rewards to around 100-125 dil per Zen. I am hesitant to dump my zen atm though as I have a strange feeling a Ship sale will be coming up very soon and the Vesta(?) being released the week after that may drive up the price temporarily.

2) EC deflation
Now you think I'm crazy but I would put money down that for the first two months after S7 launches that this will happen increasing the relative value of EC as the amount in game decreases for the following reasons. Churn, I expect anywhere from 5%-10% of the playerbase to quit along with more of the playerbase returning to the game along with new blood to replace them. The reputation systems will also hit each and every player with a nice EC tax. And finally I would expect that STFs are a major source of 'created EC' from the loot boxes at the end that are being removed AFAIK. This is the one I'm slightly unsure on.

3) Doff price Skyrocket
With the added dilithium costs, huge new demands, and increased demands from players advancing the fleet system I think these guys and gals will become extremely expensive. But fear not for near the end of S7 the mega fleets will be just about done consuming them and become huge suppliers and the majority of players will be finishing off their reputation grinds. At this point the bubble should burst and the prices plummet.

Anyone else have some predictions?
Unless something changes the Vesta IS being launched with season 7 so any bump in dilth will before the launch as it always is - I expect the Vesta to cost min 3000 Zen due to the added cost to aquire it's licence. So it may hold the price up for a few days, but personally I have already stocked up 3000 zen in my account and get another 500 Nov 20th from my monthly stipend so I am covered from Vesta cost. Dilth will then get much more expensive and very rapidly as there will be a burst into the rep system to gewt it going - it gould fall to 100 within the first week.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,499
# 3
10-26-2012, 06:30 AM
Loot bag isn't being removed, just doesn't have the salvage in it. Still walk away from a day in the queues with a bunch of stuff that nobody will ever buy to feed your replicator and maybe that one thing worth 100k. EC requirements on the reputation system are next to trivial. Nothing at tier 0 or 1 has a direct EC input, and based on the step up from 0 to 1 even at tier 5 an engine/shield/deflector or two down the replicator will cover a day's commodities.

Embassies are there, too, but with only 3 tiers, 2 tracks, and shorter XP curves, they'll be less added demand than starbases were, and starbases really didn't have much of an impact on the exchange.

Any EC deflation will be for the same reason we got a big bout of deflation after F2P: Abundance simply outpaces demand. A delayed reaction from S6 is also possible, as the first starbases started moving into tier 4 recently, and more are doing so now.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 244
# 4
10-26-2012, 07:53 AM
It did get the optionals on tribble in STF and ESTF. There was no random blue equip. I guess there was not even an optional bag to collect. ... Maybe have to check again.
Rihannsu
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,268
# 5
10-26-2012, 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hevach View Post
Loot bag isn't being removed, just doesn't have the salvage in it.
With Vendor trash? I will just hit leave the moment it comes up.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 244
# 6
10-26-2012, 08:26 AM
It could still drop the right consoles or ACCx3 weapons for millions of EC
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 5,738
# 7
10-26-2012, 08:36 AM
1): Dilithum / Zen: Yes, there will be a signficant use of the Dilithium Exchange shortly prior to Season 7, not just for the Vesta, but also to increase Dilithum reserves due to the increased demand with the reputation system.

2 and 3): This goes hand in hand since the majority of EC is currently used for Commodities and the Exchange.

Due to the DOFF nerfs, the prices will indeed go up and will continue until like two weeks into Season 7 as DOFFs get harder to acquire and the supply starts drying up. But eventually there will be a cap and high demand doffs for projects will be literally in the millions. Just like what we are seeing with Heart of Targ for the Chef NPC with Starbases.

So yes, there will be deflation in the short term. But don't forget how easy it is to earn EC as well, which would mean it will plateau at some point. My bet, two months from S7 launch.


Quote:
Originally Posted by allocater View Post
It did get the optionals on tribble in STF and ESTF. There was no random blue equip. I guess there was not even an optional bag to collect. ... Maybe have to check again.
Currently the loot drops haven't been implemented yet. So we don't know for sure yet if getting the optional will yield anything, but one thing is for sure, if there isn't anything, then there is no significance to get the optional anymore.

Quote:
Originally Posted by levi3 View Post
Unless something changes the Vesta IS being launched with season 7 so any bump in dilth will before the launch as it always is - I expect the Vesta to cost min 3000 Zen due to the added cost to aquire it's licence. So it may hold the price up for a few days, but personally I have already stocked up 3000 zen in my account and get another 500 Nov 20th from my monthly stipend so I am covered from Vesta cost. Dilth will then get much more expensive and very rapidly as there will be a burst into the rep system to gewt it going - it gould fall to 100 within the first week.
More than that man, they said the Vesta will be like the Odyssey and come with 3 different varients. Which means 5000 zen for the entire pack.
NO to ARC!

Season 9.5 = STO's NGE is Coming!
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,016
# 8
10-26-2012, 11:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by azurianstar View Post
So yes, there will be deflation in the short term. But don't forget how easy it is to earn EC as well, which would mean it will plateau at some point. My bet, two months from S7 launch.
Earning EC doesn't necessarily factor into inflation or deflation. It really depends on how you earn it. If you get a drop and sell it on the exchange, it does not affect inflation/deflation in any way. In this case, EC has not been added or removed from the game. It has merely transferred to another owner. You made 1 million EC on the sale? Great. Someone else lost 1 million EC to buy your loot. Net effect is ZERO on EC economy.

If, however, you vendor the loot, that causes inflation. EC is 'created' by the vendor and given to you. That EC did not exist before you vendored it. It added EC into the STO economy. And in contrast, when you buy commodities to give to the starbase projects, EC is being removed from the economy.

If there is not loot drop at the end of STFs, it will most certainly be deflationary because a source of 'new' EC has been removed from the economy.
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Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 137
# 9
10-26-2012, 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by azurianstar View Post
More than that man, they said the Vesta will be like the Odyssey and come with 3 different varients. Which means 5000 zen for the entire pack.
Did you have a link to a Dev statement or podcast for this? I believe you. I predicted it myself. Thats just the kind of news i would like to dive more into. But i guess the hard decision still have to wait, until we all know the exact ship specifications.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 5,738
# 10
10-26-2012, 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ransom2375 View Post
Did you have a link to a Dev statement or podcast for this? I believe you. I predicted it myself. Thats just the kind of news i would like to dive more into. But i guess the hard decision still have to wait, until we all know the exact ship specifications.
It was mentioned in one of the recent Priority One Podcasts, can't remember if it was Geko on the Video or Stahl on the audio.

Quote:
Originally Posted by latinumbar View Post
Earning EC doesn't necessarily factor into inflation or deflation. It really depends on how you earn it. If you get a drop and sell it on the exchange, it does not affect inflation/deflation in any way. In this case, EC has not been added or removed from the game. It has merely transferred to another owner. You made 1 million EC on the sale? Great. Someone else lost 1 million EC to buy your loot. Net effect is ZERO on EC economy.

If, however, you vendor the loot, that causes inflation. EC is 'created' by the vendor and given to you. That EC did not exist before you vendored it. It added EC into the STO economy. And in contrast, when you buy commodities to give to the starbase projects, EC is being removed from the economy.

If there is not loot drop at the end of STFs, it will most certainly be deflationary because a source of 'new' EC has been removed from the economy.
Actually it would. If its easy to earn money and people increase their savings, that increases the inflation on prices. Just look at items on the exchange and the recent Heart of Targ going from 50,000 K to at least 1 million in the last week.

And afraid EC has been added because there is no set ammount, its unlimited. But I won't disagree that there is EC being removed from the economy as well with the Starbase Projects and soon the Reputation system. Though you must remember all those players who can easily earn 2 million per Tour the Galaxy Race, which easily offsets the losses, and thus a net gain with EC.

Now its different with Dilithum, where there is almost an equal ammount of sink as in earning (for the casual player).
NO to ARC!

Season 9.5 = STO's NGE is Coming!
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