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Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 13,592
# 31
11-30-2012, 03:14 PM
Yeah.... adding up your results for 4/10 to 7/10 shows a strong bias towards tac consoles.
T/S/E
4/4/2
4/2/4
5/1/4
6/3/1

total:
19/10/11

almost 50% tac consoles with about 25% each in eng and sci. Could be sampling error though. it's only 4 data samples.
HAIL HYDRA!

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
I can haz joystick!
MMOs aren't charities. Corporations are supposed to make a profit. It's what they do.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 32
12-01-2012, 05:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markhawkman View Post
Yeah.... adding up your results for 4/10 to 7/10 shows a strong bias towards tac consoles.
The last set was, Green Phaser Relay, Blue Prefire, Green Prefire, Blue Ambiplasma, Blue TCD, Green Variable. All of which are either not sellable except to a vendor or just not worth much. None of which are really useful. Getting something really worth something even in the blue catagory is still somewhat rare.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 969
# 33
12-02-2012, 03:25 PM
Here are my results for my last 100 consoles using Resolve Technicians with one crit trait (efficient). The readout predicts a 24%, 51%, 24% ratio for purple:blue:green.

Actual Results: 19%, 59%, 22% (a lot more blues than predicted with quite a bit less purple and about on par with the greens. As far as the quality of purples, they were pretty bad. I only received 3 energy boosting consoles and 1 neutronium.)

Green Ablative Hull Armor
Green Chroniton Flux Regulator
Green Diburnium Hull Plating
Green Emergency Forcefields
Green Field Emitter
Green Inertial Dampeners
Green Inertial Dampeners
Green Injector Assembly
Green Neutronium Alloy
Green Neutronium Alloy
Green Parametallic Hull Plating
Green Phaser Relay
Green Photon Detonation Assembly
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green RCS
Green Sensor Probes
Green SIF Generator
Green Variable Geometry Detonator
Green Warhead Yield Chamber
Green Zero Point Quantum Chamber

Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Antiproton Mag Regulator
Blue Biofunction Monitor
Blue Biofunction Monitor
Blue Disruptor Induction Coil
Blue Electroceramic Hull Plating
Blue Emergency Force Fields
Blue Emitter Array
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue Field Emitter
Blue Field Generator
Blue Flow Capacitor
Blue Flow Capacitor
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Injector Assembly
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Neutronium Alloy
Blue Parametallic Hull Plating
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Polaron Phase Modulator
Blue Power Insulator
Blue Prefire Chamber
Blue RCS Accelerator
Blue Sensor Probes
Blue SIF Generator
Blue SIF Generator
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Tetraburnium Hull Armor
Blue Tetraburnium Hull Armor
Blue Tetryon Pulse Generator
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Warhead Yield Tactical Chamber
Blue Warhead Yield Tactical Chamber
Blue Zero Point Quantum Chamber
Blue Zero Point Quantum Chamber

Purple Ablative Hull Armor
Purple Diburnium Plating
Purple Directed Energy Distribution Manifold
Purple Disruptor Induction Coil
Purple Electroceramic Hull Plating
Purple Field Emitter
Purple Inertial Dampeners
Purple Injector Assembly
Purple Mag Regulator
Purple Monotanium Alloy
Purple Neutronium Alloy
Purple Particle Generator
Purple Plasma Distribution Manifold
Purple Phaser Relay
Purple SIF Generator
Purple SIF Generator
Purple TCD Subspace Infuser
Purple TCD Subspace Infuser
Purple Variable Geometry Detonator
----
@DevolvedOne

Last edited by skurf; 12-02-2012 at 03:35 PM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 769
# 34
12-02-2012, 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbp101287 View Post
No, OP is right. His results should have been alot closer to the stated percentages. 200 or so consoles crafted is definitely a large enough data set to make a conclusion that the percentages aren't correct. And the game would not have any need to remember what you rolled in the past. Either it's a random roll each time and he should be getting closer to 24% purple, or the game artificially generates the "roll" based upon some sort of pre-chosen outcomes; either way, things are not working as advertised.
I don't want to get all Chicken Little here, BUT am I right to assume that if there might be a glitch in the percentages HERE, with this particular case, is it not at least possible, that this "glitch' might affect OTHER rolls that rely on probability as well ?
PLEASE fix the Dauntless. See suggestion below
Quote:
Originally Posted by dontdrunkimshoot View Post
how to make it too good (10/10)- if the LT tac was uni, it would probably be a 9/10, an extra LT eng or sci would have wonderful usefulness. this actually sorta, kinda, NEEDS to happen. 10/10 would make the LTC universal instead.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 35 8 of 10
12-04-2012, 07:59 PM
Here's 8.

2 Green, 6 blue and 2 purple.
2 eng, 6 tac and 2 sci.

20/60/20 for both.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 36 9 of 10
12-09-2012, 05:50 AM
Here's the 9th installment.

2 Purple, 6 Blue, 2 Green

Still 20/60/20 on a 24/52/24, same as the last run.

The take was 5 Eng, 2 Tac, 3 Sci.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,136
# 37
12-12-2012, 05:43 AM
From what I've seen the distribution of rarity and type of consoles isn't a problem with the percentages given by the assignment but it a much deeper coding issue in the game. The issue is Cryptic's random number generator... these are problems in MMOs since so much is random.

Computers don't do random, they can't, they are logic machines, so a random number is always some variable modified by another variable. The problem becomes when one variable isn't as variable as they think it is, resulting is much more highly predictable results. Very often the time is used as a variable.

I can say from a lot of console missions that I know how to get the same console at the same rarity very often, I haven't found a predictable way to get the valuable ones yet, but with enough data samples it wouldn't be difficult.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 38 10 of 10
12-12-2012, 05:52 AM
Here's 10 of 10.

6 Tac, 3 SCi, 1 Eng

1 Purple, 7 Blue, 2 Green

10/70/20 on a 23/52/24.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 247
# 39 The Take
12-12-2012, 06:45 AM
Here's the take on 100 results. After adding all this up you'll see that the results came to 25 Green, 52 Blue and 23 Purple. That's close enough to 24/52/24 for me so I'm not going to repeat the test. I also kept tract of the time each segment was started and when it finished as well as which DOFFs were used. There was no noticeable difference in the results of each regardless of cool downs or combinations of officers. The only thing I do see is that the junkier consoles seem to pop up slightly more often but further tests would be needed to prove or disprove that. An example is that I've done hundreds of these and have yet to recieve my 4th Purple AP Mag Rugulator. It's truly is easier and cheaper to sell your powered artifacts on the exchange and save the EC to buy what you need.

2 Green Electroceramic
4 Green Injector Assembly
1 Green SIF Generator
2 Green Sensor Probes
1 Green Chrontiton Flux
1 Green Ablative
3 Green Graviton
2 Green Variable Geometry
1 Green AP Regulator
1 Green Flow Regulator
1 Green Tetraburnium
1 Green Phaser Relay
1 Green Prefire Chamber
1 Green Ambiplasma
2 Green Biofunction
1 Green Particle Generator
25 Green


3 Blue Inertial Dampener
1 Blue Teryon Pulse
3 Blue Particle Generator
2 Blue Stealth Module
2 Blue Sensors Probe
1 Blue Field Generator
1 Blue Disruptor Coil
1 Blue Distribution Manifold
3 Blue TCD
3 Blue Shield Emitter
3 Blue Ambiplasma
1 Blue Zero Point
1 Blue Countermeasures
2 Blue Emitter Array
1 Blue SIF
2 Blue Warhead Yield
1 Blue Diburnium
1 Blue Injector Assembly
2 Blue AP Regulator
1 Blue Parametalic
1 Blue Prefire Chamber
1 Blue Powewr Insulator
1 Blue Chrontiton Flux
1 Blue EPS
1 Blue Neutronium
4 Blue Directed Energy
2 Blue Transphasic
2 Blue Plasma Distr1bution
1 Blue Monotonium
1 Blue Tetraburnium
1 Blue Power Insulator
1 Blue Polaron
52 Blue


2 Purple Field Emitter
1 Purple Biofunction Monitor
1 Purple Sensor Probe
2 Purple Electroceramic
1 Purple SIF
2 Purple Albative
3 Purple Parametalic
2 Purple Prefire Chamber
2 Purple Warhead Yield
1 Purple Tetryon Pulse
1 Purple Tetraburnium
1 Purple Monotonium
1 Purple Neutronium
1 Purple Disruptor Coil
1 Purple Graviton
1 Purple Zero Point
23 Purple

Last edited by jake81499; 12-12-2012 at 06:47 AM.
Captain
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 3,929
# 40
12-12-2012, 07:34 AM
Bottom line... is if it says 40% purple... that DOES NOT mean that 4 out of 10 will be purple. To be frank your understanding of probability is lacking.... don't feel bad most people don't understand much beyond the basic concepts.

A basic assumption in probability theory is that each event is independent of all other events. That is, previous draws have no influence on the next draw. So really because you pulled 1000 greens doesn't mean you are anymore likely to land a purple on your next try then; you had on the first of the 1000 greens you pulled. Even if the purple chance was 99% it would be unlikely you would pull 999 out of 1000 purples.

Yes you have a X chacne to land a purple when ever you start the mission... I really don't think there is anything wrong with Cryptics math... a grade 10 high school programing student could program a basic chance roll.

The issue with this thread is 20% DOES not ever = 20 in 100.... that is a possible outcome, however there is more math we could use that would show how small the chances of landing on 20 of 100 would be. lol
When the messenger comes to appropriate your profits ... kill the messenger.

Last edited by antoniosalieri; 12-12-2012 at 07:37 AM.
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