Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 353
# 1 what re the chances of...
11-17-2012, 12:50 PM
1. getting a box ship with 24 keys?
2. Getting a bug ship with 7 reinforcement packs?
3. tufflis(when reinforcement pack is gone) going back up to 30-40 million EC in price?

Just asking

PS. By the way put your answers like this

1.answer
2.answer
3.answer

thank you

Last edited by startrek1234567; 11-17-2012 at 12:54 PM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 5,321
# 2
11-17-2012, 12:53 PM
i can say not good i have used my 500 Zpoint last 2 months just to give chance a go lets say best i got was white doff pack

do what i do to get box ship buy keys sell keys on exchange then buy ship with EC
swimwear off risa not fixed
system Lord Baal is dead
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Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 353
# 3
11-17-2012, 12:58 PM
see whats i was thinking of doing was....

buying 7 reinforcemt packs and selling them for 5 million each, which would get me 35 million EC...then buying 2 tufflis and selling them when they go up in price atleast getting 60 million EC out of them...
Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,948
# 4
11-17-2012, 01:05 PM
the box ships are very low. like 0.7% chance.

bug ships is probably around 1.6% at a guess because of the higher cost.

dont know about the tuffli.

chances are you wont get it, but the thing with chance is you could very well get it first box.

House of Cards - Lvl 46 Fed mission
Empire Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 351
# 5
11-17-2012, 01:20 PM
I think I can answer #1. Please, correct my math if it's wrong since it was a long time since I did this in school.

1a) Assuming a ship drop rate of 0.5% and 24 keys
1-10^(24*LOG(1-0.005)) = 0.1133 i.e. about 11% chance

1b) Assuming a ship drop rate of 1% and 24 keys
1-10^(24*LOG(1-0.01)) = 0.2143 i.e. about 21% chance

In either case the odds are against you.

EDIT: Sorry, I misread your question and my calculations were made for a JEM ship drop with 24 keys, not a BOX ship drop since we have no idea how high that is. But the odds are probably a lot better.

EDIT2: Lol, I'm completely out of touch now since the Jems don't come in the boxes but in the reinforcement packs as you correctly write. Just replace 24 with 7 in my calculations above and it should give you the number. This is what S7 grinding does to my mind

Last edited by therealfluffy; 11-17-2012 at 01:26 PM.
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