Career Officer
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 315
Latest blog ^_^
http://samonmaui.blogspot.com/2012/1...e-traffic.html

The long story made short, I'm trying to figure out if traffic volume in the marketplace has significant influence on the price or not. Up until recently? Doesn't seem so. After Season 7, I think one could argue there is, but then the question is why now and not before? Certainly, there are higher volume days, but those don't correlate with a drop in price for Z.

Still working on my Excel-fu, and I'm not an economist. But its interesting to theorize ^_^

Thoughts? Ideas? Tell me how to overlay two charts on top of each other? :p

edit: And to the devs - thank you for the Exchange. It been one of the most fascinating things about the game to me!

edit #2: Chart has been revised, so you've got the volume and price there. Most recent pricing is at http://samonmaui.blogspot.com/2012/1...day-early.html
Updated 2/11/13! Buying Zen with Energy Credits | Upgrading Duty Officers without Dilithium.
Q&A Presents: Maui Online! My friends' radioshow/podcast Computers, with occasional forays into astronomy.

Last edited by chikahiro; 11-27-2012 at 06:16 PM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,122
# 2
11-27-2012, 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chikahiro View Post
Latest blog ^_^
http://samonmaui.blogspot.com/2012/1...e-traffic.html

The long story made short, I'm trying to figure out if traffic volume in the marketplace has significant influence on the price or not. Up until recently? Doesn't seem so. After Season 7, I think one could argue there is, but then the question is why now and not before? Certainly, there are higher volume days, but those don't correlate with a drop in price for Z.

Still working on my Excel-fu, and I'm not an economist. But its interesting to theorize ^_^

Thoughts? Ideas? Tell me how to overlay two charts on top of each other? :p

edit: And to the devs - thank you for the Exchange. It been one of the most fascinating things about the game to me!
Well, if this is right, it's probably wildly profitable.

People are paying more for dilithium and volume is better than it was three months ago.
Career Officer
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 315
# 3
11-27-2012, 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoleviathan99 View Post
Well, if this is right, it's probably wildly profitable.

People are paying more for dilithium and volume is better than it was three months ago.
Well, its more like sports cars and Apple stuff - there's a lower volume being sold, but its at a higher profit. Also, with as little being done right now, I can't tell how much of the Zen is stipend Zen or bought Zen.

Really, we'd need more information to determine if how much more is or isn't being made. Certainly, if volume was higher at current prices that'd be really WOW, but that's not the case right now.

Unless, of course, you can figure this stuff out. Which I can't.

Oh, and the 3 months ago? Sorry, that's when I expanded my tracking ,which makes that early segment unreliable. I just wasn't sure how to handle that in Excel
Updated 2/11/13! Buying Zen with Energy Credits | Upgrading Duty Officers without Dilithium.
Q&A Presents: Maui Online! My friends' radioshow/podcast Computers, with occasional forays into astronomy.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,122
# 4
11-27-2012, 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chikahiro View Post
Well, its more like sports cars and Apple stuff - there's a lower volume being sold, but its at a higher profit. Also, with as little being done right now, I can't tell how much of the Zen is stipend Zen or bought Zen.

Really, we'd need more information to determine if how much more is or isn't being made. Certainly, if volume was higher at current prices that'd be really WOW, but that's not the case right now.

Unless, of course, you can figure this stuff out. Which I can't.

Oh, and the 3 months ago? Sorry, that's when I expanded my tracking ,which makes that early segment unreliable. I just wasn't sure how to handle that in Excel
Well, even if it's stipend ZEN, that's a real liability on the books. It should be, under GAAP anyway.

We would need to compare this to other sales to know if it's cutting into them though. (Ie. if people shifted their buying here, it's not as dramatic of a gain.)

And looking at your chart, the orange line is the important one.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,122
# 5
11-27-2012, 05:24 PM
Oh. Okay.

I just looked closer. Looks to have gone from 425k ZEN being sold to 100k. Not nearly as rosy.

Also, I think maybe these numbers don't reflect successful transactions that well.
Career Officer
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 315
# 6
11-27-2012, 05:57 PM
I can PM you a link to the the spreadsheet (SkyDrive/Office or GDrive/Google Docs) if you like.

I'll readily admit the odds of my logic/tracking being flawed are pretty high. I'm working with what I can see, and am hoping to gain some insight based off my observations.

The numbers are the amount of Zen in the top 5 pools. Because the Exchange is live, the #1 and #2 spots for buying/selling change change several times while I'm recording everything. I really do not know how to figure out how to estimate the actual completed sales with the information provided.

I've been tracking:
  • Best Selling Price
  • Best Buying Price
  • Selling #5-#1
  • Buying #1-#5
  • Day of the week

On Thursdays I update my general graphs/charts, and post them.

I am, frankly, an amateur at this, with a DTP background (ie, not applicable). I'm teaching myself Office, and using this as way to do so. While I started off very simply, I began adding data as my curiosity grew, even though I had little idea of how to use it. Ideas came over time, and this was the latest one I had.

If I could track the volume with the pricing, that'd be perfect.

edit: Trust me - ANY insights on making this better for folks would be greatly appreciated
Updated 2/11/13! Buying Zen with Energy Credits | Upgrading Duty Officers without Dilithium.
Q&A Presents: Maui Online! My friends' radioshow/podcast Computers, with occasional forays into astronomy.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 73
# 7
11-27-2012, 11:32 PM
This is a really cool and important tool. Of course Cryptic has better numbers than you are tracking but it still seems to verify and showcase trends.

Ive been a big basher towards Cryptics changes in season 7 and these charts showcase why. I actually want Cryptic and STO to succeed and for them to make more money and improve the game.

Lets look at your numbers.

The important line on your graph is the pink one. This line illustrates what happens when people buy Zen and spend it on dilithium. The 50 day moving average seems to be in the neighborhood of 500,000 dilithium a day at an exchange rate of 150. This suggests that every month people are buying $100,000 of zen which they convert to dilithium and use on products that need dilithium. I actually think your volume numbers are low and its probably a minimum of 2X your charts. At $250,000 a month, the numbers would suggest that $3 million a year is being spent supporting Cryptic and STO by people buying Zen, converting it to dilithium and spending it on virtual products.

Your charts seem to suggest that after season 7 dropped those numbers have dropped 90% to where daily averages are showing 50,000 dilithium per day being sold and at a lower rate.

Despite many of the fan boys screaming that they are making more dilithium than ever and selling it on the exchange, the big picture numbers are suggesting that people are buying far less zen to convert to dilithium.

You are right to point out the stipend factor. We do not know how much Stipend is being converted to dilithium. If people were converting 25,000 worth of zen stipend a day then it was not a big percentage of 500,000 but if they are still converting 25,000 a day its a hefty percentage when you are selling only 50,000 per day.

Its honestly, unfair to suggest that your numbers are dead on and you are the first to admit the fact that they are not. Still, you are tracking the top 5 bids below market and the top 5 asks above the market and its not unreasonable to suggest that with bid/ask contractions that the sharp declines in volume and activity your charts bespeak are noteworthy.

We could talk about why volume and activity is decreasing but thats probably best left for other threads. Your charts are showing what many predicted. Zen would decrease in value and when it did, people would buy less zen as it became obvious to them that they were getting reduced value for their real world money.

Reduced volume is mitigating the damage a bit and slowing the rate of dilithium inflation but its almost inevitable that huge sharp reductions in dilithium have caused the value of dilithium to rise. And its obvious that higher prices for dilithium are impacting sales of zen.

I would say the OPs charts are on the accurate side and probably conservative. Its probably not a bad guess to suggest that dilithium inflation will impact Cryptic Zen sales and reduce their sales, revenues, and profits by about $2,500,000.00 US dollars a year. Its not overly out of line to suggest that if dilithium continues to become more rare that the value of Zen will continue to fall further and Zen sales will slide more.

The OPs charts are showing that as Zen becomes more worthless on the dilithium exchange that customers are not buying more of it to compensate for the staggering decline of value of Zen. Dilithium sales may interest customers and players but Zen sales are what keeps Cryptic in business. And Zen sales for the purpose of dilithium conversion are down sharply. Factoring in stipends, its probably far uglier than most really imagine. People may say "other" people will buy more zen to compensate for poor exchange rates but honestly it aint happening. Ive yet to see a post from someone that admitted they were willing to buy more zen after cryptic destroyed the value of it versus an inflated dilithium exchange rate.

Cryptic needs to sell lots of ships, lockbox keys, and doffin packs to make up for this decline and Im not sure they can do it. This is a fee for service business model and $2 million in lost sales goes right to the bottom line. Im not sure Cryptic and PWE can punt $2 mill a year that hammers the bottom line and not miss it.

Easy money on the dilithium front was good for the company. Going real tight on the dilithium supply really is not. Cryptic pulled the peg for the exchange rate and let the value of zen float via dilithium based inflation. They destroyed the value of the one product they have to sell and volume trends are starting to show it.

We dont know the absolute sales figures for sure.... but these charts are showing some real bad news and I for one think that they may not be perfectly accurate but they are downright relevant and show some noticeable trends that are deserving of notice.

Cryptic needs to put more dilithium in the hands of its players and they need to increase it by 900% or so to get back to flowing purchases of Zen. Even now, it would be hard to undo the damage they have done to themselves if they did reverse course. And of course they wont .... until .....
Career Officer
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 315
# 8
11-28-2012, 12:29 AM
Well, there's another adjustment patch coming out this Friday, in theory, so we'll see.

Biggest thing for me was I really wasn't aware of the Foundry exploit - I was told of it, but ignored it. I want to play the game the way I want to, not necessarily "the most efficient way." But, seems that has had a significant impact on things.

I'm very curious to see how things go in the next few months. Nothing is really set in stone, and costs will be tweaked over time.

Worth noting: purchasing Zen is multi-use, so there's probably been healthy sales from the new ships, for instance. I'm curious to see what else goes on as time goes by.
Updated 2/11/13! Buying Zen with Energy Credits | Upgrading Duty Officers without Dilithium.
Q&A Presents: Maui Online! My friends' radioshow/podcast Computers, with occasional forays into astronomy.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 497
# 9
11-28-2012, 12:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bugshu View Post
*snip*
Good points there. I have noticed among the people I chat with regularly in-game that a sense of need for dil is rising, but nobody seems compelled to grind dil any harder. Also, I note that the sense of need for Zen is pretty low. Added to that I have noted that a lot of the people I know have a pile of Zen now, and they aren't spending it. I think reducing the price of things like keys and doff packs might do a lot to offset this. 275 Zen for a pack that probably won't even grant you a purple doff seems steep. I bought 5 Fleet Support DOff packs for EC and not one had a purple doff in it, let alone an exotic one. I have used stacks of 99 keys in a row and gotten junk. I'm so glad I don't pay Zen for these things or I'd feel horribly cheated. A lower price on those might make it more appealing given the harsh odds for the gambles around here, which of course would move a lot more Zen out of circulation, improving their value.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 245
# 10
11-28-2012, 03:44 AM
Nice, I remember this site and wanted to find it again but couldn't. Now I will bookmark it. Very interesting stats.
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