Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,119
# 11
11-28-2012, 06:25 AM
My take:

1. How much of the "volume" are speculators buying up Dil to "resell" it if/when the exchange hits 100 per zen? Watching volume of dilithium moving through the market without seeing the volume of that moved dilithium exiting the economy we cannot tell...

2. So far, my only hypothesis about the exchange's prices revolves around the fact that the farmers who supply the market are insisting upon X amount of play = Y Zen, and since their "quick exploits" have dried up, they're driving the price down so that they still make their zen, to heck with the playerbase that's supplying this zen...
Well, with the upgrade announcement leaving NX and Connie fans in the dust again, can we restart / revisit the T5 Connie and NX threads - since they will no longer be "truly" endgame ships... (after we get the T5 versions, it'll be time to see them added to the T5U upgrade charts too...
Career Officer
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 953
# 12
11-28-2012, 08:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dareau View Post
My take:

1. How much of the "volume" are speculators buying up Dil to "resell" it if/when the exchange hits 100 per zen? Watching volume of dilithium moving through the market without seeing the volume of that moved dilithium exiting the economy we cannot tell...

2. So far, my only hypothesis about the exchange's prices revolves around the fact that the farmers who supply the market are insisting upon X amount of play = Y Zen, and since their "quick exploits" have dried up, they're driving the price down so that they still make their zen, to heck with the playerbase that's supplying this zen...
Truth is there is just less dilith about, some are hoarding but most of us who were hitting our daily caps in S6 are not in S7... this weekend I failed to hit cap at all on any 3 of my chars.

I also play the game a lot less since S7.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 160
# 13
11-28-2012, 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thisisoverlord View Post
Truth is there is just less dilith about, some are hoarding but most of us who were hitting our daily caps in S6 are not in S7... this weekend I failed to hit cap at all on any 3 of my chars.

I also play the game a lot less since S7.
This. There are a lot of folks who have moved on to try f2p in that other game while Cryptic sorts out their economy. Many won't return.

If Starbases are still being advanced, and some are, requirements for dilithium haven't gone away, what has most gone away is the ability to advance starbases with dilithium projects.

I know as a short term solution fleets are spending fleet credit like mad to fill doff based starbase projects. That sucks though because that means a starbase is a self licking ice cream cone- a mechanism to earn fleet credit to advance a starbase so that you can spend fleet credit to advance a starbase.

But that's the state of STO these days.

Great chart and discussion. From my own experience i am moving less than 10% the currency through the exchange per day than I was in season seven, despite the exchange being much more volatile these days with a large margin between high and low on any single day. As STF conversations dry up, I suspect we are still another week or two from the bottom, and 960 dilithium three times a week via reputation xp isn't going to go very far.
Ensign
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 3
# 14
11-28-2012, 09:30 AM
I don't see how you can deduce the amount of dilithium and zen being sold by snapshots of the amount being offered.

If you have a stable market at 157 Dil/zen it's not important for the amount actually being sold how many people are offering to sell zen at 160 and how many people are offering to buy zen at 154 because those offers wont be taken.
Right know we often have a situation were people are offering to sell zen at x+1 (lets say 127) and people are offering to buy at x-1 (125) with a very small amount at x (126) and with x changing quite fast.

Lets put some real numbers on this:

1st snapshot:
50000 zen to sell at 127
0 zen to sell at 126
0 zen to buy at 126
50000 zen to buy at 125

now someone offers to sell 5000 at 126 and 1 second later someone offers to buy that zen at 126.
if we then take our next snapshot it would look excactly like the one before yet 5000 zen have just been sold without us being able to notice.

We would have to take samples extremly fast and make some assumptions about what happens at x (offer might have been taken down intstead of a transaction occuring) if we want to deduce the volume of transactions.

In the end the only one knowing how much zen people are converting to dil is cryptic and they won't be telling us.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,648
# 15
11-28-2012, 10:08 AM
I think the necessary data may be here but that too much data is being used.

No offers that aren't the best offers are allowed to complete.

I can offer to buy at 100 dil per ZEN and you can offer to sell at that rate but from my limited understanding, our offers will not get matched until the bulk of the offers shift that direction.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 642
# 16
11-28-2012, 11:01 AM
So it seems that Season 7 and the closing of various "exploits" stabs STO right in the heart of it's profits.

A shame no one told Cryptic this would happen...
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,648
# 17
11-28-2012, 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by atomictiki View Post
So it seems that Season 7 and the closing of various "exploits" stabs STO right in the heart of it's profits.

A shame no one told Cryptic this would happen...
We don't know if they're making more money or less. Among other things, I'm not sure this chart tracks speed of transactions.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 642
# 18
11-28-2012, 11:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dareau View Post
2. So far, my only hypothesis about the exchange's prices revolves around the fact that the farmers who supply the market are insisting upon X amount of play = Y Zen, and since their "quick exploits" have dried up, they're driving the price down so that they still make their zen, to heck with the playerbase that's supplying this zen...
Or they've stopped playing altogether and moved on to other games.
Captain
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,628
# 19
11-28-2012, 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoleviathan99 View Post
We don't know if they're making more money or less. Among other things, I'm not sure this chart tracks speed of transactions.
They are not by Stahl own statements over how people are not significant buying Dilithium with Zen ... or were.

Looking at the collapse it seems people are buying Dilithium with Zen but the Dilithum reserves are not able to meet demand, causing the crash that leads to a issue.

If Dilithium becomes too expensive to buy with Zen the only ones in the market will be the ones with a stipend (lifers mostly) and the system will not balance itself because as Zen will still be pumped into the system the Dilithium reserves will be exhausted and even less Dilithium will enter the market since people who are sitting on some reserves will keep doing so, not to sell it but to buy things in the game with the outrageous Dilithium prices.

And if they are waiting for the Megafleets to come in and save then ... not going to happen because they are a minority and far away from T5, they could only potential save them about 2-3 months down the line when they reach T5.

This is caused my the monster they named "Fleet System".

Either way, I am not buying something that is not a account unlock or a service ... I am certainly not going to spend $25 on Dilithium so I can outfit a ship with weapons that I cannot even reclaim.

Last edited by f2pdrakron; 11-28-2012 at 11:59 AM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 315
# 20
11-28-2012, 12:10 PM
Its been really great to see all these thoughtful posts

I wish I could track actual transactions. As is, I can only see what's currently being offered in each "pool." For all I know there could be tons of successful transactions, but those never show up on the tracker! There's a lot that can happen between numbers being updated, and that's not including stuff happening off the chart (ie, people putting offers "in wait" for a certain rate or storing Dilithium/Zen).

Each "snapshot" I took is just that, a snapshot. Just a moment in time, and only of certain numbers. As said, Cryptic is the one with all the data, and I'd give somebody else's left arm to peek at that stuff, plus their leg to have someone explain it to me.
Updated 2/11/13! Buying Zen with Energy Credits | Upgrading Duty Officers without Dilithium.
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