Quote:
Originally Posted by kpg1usa
If you've spent more than $50$100, and still NOT obtained the ship in question, then the odds are too high for a nonphysical reward, and thus, should be adjusted.

I know one person who got the JHEC in 8 boxes. (Although I think he flew it for less than a day before changing to a newly acquired D'Kora.) Does that mean the odds are too low? That's not how probability and statistics work.
With a 1/1000 chance for a reward, the chance of getting the reward in 8 lockboxes or less is 0.797%. However, the chance of not getting the reward after opening 4829 lockboxes is also 0.797%.
This means approximately 797 out of 100,000 players will get the reward in 8 lockboxes or less. However this also means approximately 797 out of 100,000 players will open 4829 lockboxes
without getting the reward.
His singular experience is absolutely no basis for adjusting odds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie
Second if you fill a slot machine its guaranteed to pay its top prizes as it can only hold so much

This is completely and utterly false. You must not go to casinos much, or you'd be bankrupt.
First, slot machines are networked, generally either across the entire franchise. The Megabuck one is the exact same pot regardless of if you're playing in Niagara Falls or Las Vegas. They do not "fill up" because slot machines don't even use cash, it's all digital.
Second, the odds of winning any particular game of chance is independent. There is never a guaranteed result due to whatever imaginary factor the addict is currently deluding themselves over.
Addendum: The Math
I figure I may as well explain the figures I provided.
With a 1/1000 chance of getting a reward, there's a 0.999 probability of not getting a reward. The probability of not getting a reward in 8 attempts is 0.999^8 = 0.992027944. The probability of at least one success in 8 trials is 1(0.999^8) = 0.007972056 = 0.797%.
We should all be familiar with the bell curve. There is a 0.797% chance of X successes, and there is also a 0.797% chance of Y failures. The probability of failure is 0.999 the amount of failure is Y, and it should equal 007972056 . Therefore: 0.999^Y = 007972056 , which means Y = Log(007972056)/Log(0.999) = 4829.396552.
The chance of failing 4829 times is equal to the chance of succeeding within 8 attempts.