Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 811
# 31
01-31-2013, 11:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
First of all the mob hasent run casinos in decades so there is no getting whacked.

Second if you fill a slot machine its guaranteed to pay its top prizes as it can only hold so much

Next.
ok then pick your generic gambling game of choice, I was going to say lottery, but I decided slots would be a more visual metaphor, my point is you lost, it sucks, but you can't go and demand the prize just because you wasted all your money trying to win it.

How about this, you know those prize grabber games they have at supermarkets, no matter how much your kid is screaming at you to get the spongebob doll, you aren't guaranteed that you can get it, and you can't go to the manager and demand he open the machine and get the doll for you just because you put all your quarters in it.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 41
# 32
01-31-2013, 11:33 PM
This seems oddly familiar...

Oh, yeah. Another MMO whose name I'm going to proactively redact has a similar setup, with about the same degree of 'jackpot payouts' so to speak and roughly an equal amount of rage that they didn't get that best prize possible. The response that those that complain that they didn't get that awesome ship get in response?

"If you can't afford to play it, don't play it."

Heartless, I know, but it's stone truth. The chance of getting a ship from the lockboxes is so miniscule that you may as well not even try. Sure, they're pretty, but that $200 worth of Zen could've gone to a lot of other things: inventory/bank/shared banks lots, ships, even just selling it straight-up for Dil is better than trying to open every box you get.
Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophere
How much is enough to stop this incessent whinning?

At this rate there is going to be a severe cheese shortage.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,060
# 33
02-01-2013, 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie
$204 worth of dominion lock box's opened and not even 1 jam hadar ship
If you stick your fingers in enough light sockets, one of them might give you electricity super powers!
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Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,373
# 34
02-01-2013, 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kpg1usa View Post
If you've spent more than $50-$100, and still NOT obtained the ship in question, then the odds are too high for a non-physical reward, and thus, should be adjusted.
I know one person who got the JHEC in 8 boxes. (Although I think he flew it for less than a day before changing to a newly acquired D'Kora.) Does that mean the odds are too low? That's not how probability and statistics work.

With a 1/1000 chance for a reward, the chance of getting the reward in 8 lockboxes or less is 0.797%. However, the chance of not getting the reward after opening 4829 lockboxes is also 0.797%.

This means approximately 797 out of 100,000 players will get the reward in 8 lockboxes or less. However this also means approximately 797 out of 100,000 players will open 4829 lockboxes without getting the reward.

His singular experience is absolutely no basis for adjusting odds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
Second if you fill a slot machine its guaranteed to pay its top prizes as it can only hold so much
This is completely and utterly false. You must not go to casinos much, or you'd be bankrupt.

First, slot machines are networked, generally either across the entire franchise. The Megabuck one is the exact same pot regardless of if you're playing in Niagara Falls or Las Vegas. They do not "fill up" because slot machines don't even use cash, it's all digital.

Second, the odds of winning any particular game of chance is independent. There is never a guaranteed result due to whatever imaginary factor the addict is currently deluding themselves over.

Addendum: The Math
I figure I may as well explain the figures I provided.

With a 1/1000 chance of getting a reward, there's a 0.999 probability of not getting a reward. The probability of not getting a reward in 8 attempts is 0.999^8 = 0.992027944. The probability of at least one success in 8 trials is 1-(0.999^8) = 0.007972056 = 0.797%.

We should all be familiar with the bell curve. There is a 0.797% chance of X successes, and there is also a 0.797% chance of Y failures. The probability of failure is 0.999 the amount of failure is Y, and it should equal 007972056 . Therefore: 0.999^Y = 007972056 , which means Y = Log(007972056)/Log(0.999) = 4829.396552.

The chance of failing 4829 times is equal to the chance of succeeding within 8 attempts.

"Don't let them promote you. Don't let them transfer you. Don't let them do anything that takes you off the bridge of that ship, because while you're there... you can make a difference." - James T. Kirk

Last edited by darkjeff; 02-01-2013 at 12:17 PM. Reason: Added MATH because I have a math degree and barely get to use it.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 168
# 35
02-01-2013, 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkjeff View Post
Second, the odds of winning any particular game of chance is independent. There is never a guaranteed result due to whatever imaginary factor the addict is currently deluding themselves over.
unless the addict in question has found a means by which to beat the game of chance at it's own game... counting cards, rolling the dice in a specific way that fixes the results, etc... etc... Unfortunately those methods tend to get the addict in question into serious legal trouble.
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Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,373
# 36
02-01-2013, 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by helixsunbringer View Post
unless the addict in question has found a means by which to beat the game of chance at it's own game... counting cards, rolling the dice in a specific way that fixes the results, etc... etc... Unfortunately those methods tend to get the addict in question into serious legal trouble.
Those methods basically circumvent probability, so they are no longer games of chance.

"Don't let them promote you. Don't let them transfer you. Don't let them do anything that takes you off the bridge of that ship, because while you're there... you can make a difference." - James T. Kirk
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 168
# 37
02-01-2013, 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkjeff View Post
Those methods basically circumvent probability, so they are no longer games of chance.
which is why a method such as that will never work on Star Trek Online... unless the addict in question hacks the game's source code. Which itself presents serious legal problems for both the addict and Cryptic themselves.
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Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 719
# 38
02-01-2013, 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
?GBP130/$204/151euro Worth of dominion lock box's opened and not even 1 jam hadar ship

I demand an explanation that is just ridiculous I know people who have opened 20 box's and got 2....

Just to give you an idea how many box's ive actually opened...

I currently have over 160 rich dilithium vain tickets...


Im not happy $204 is more than a years subscription to world of ******** also 2 thirds of a lifetime subscription to star trek online WTF...


(Also why are the forums incapable of showing the british pound symbol...)
Dude, I feel for you.

BUT thankfully, YOU CAN get the dreadnought in the lobi store for your efforts.

Putting a similar ship in the lobi store's been a huge improvement over the lock box experience we had in the beginning.

Earning your way to another similar cool ship, if your luck sucks, like mine does, is WAY better than NOTHING.

But I gotta tell ya, Cryptic's been giving away damned cool ships lately with the Breen and the Ambassador class ships.

I can't fault these guys for tryin to make a little money too.
"And at Warp 10, we're going nowhere mighty fast."-Scotty
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 137
# 39
02-01-2013, 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagnastie View Post
Thanks for the reply Corgatag I have 780 Lobi crystals and 4 keys left if I get to 800 Ill buy a dreadnaught but im not buying any more keys without a good explanation from sto as to why I havent got one

Surely u must agree with me that somethign isent right here?
Have you considered taking a statistics class at your local community college?
Captain
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,742
# 40
02-01-2013, 02:05 PM
I have two lock box ships, Wells , Mobius

I bought both off the exchance for EC

I will never buy a key and open a box

Dont gamble save your EC be patient
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