More that once I have asked myself, what are the odds of actually getting one of those amazing ships from a lock box? I sometimes think that I see people with them everywhere, yet I also seem to see so few with them. I was wondering, what are the actual odds of getting a ship from a lock box, what determines who gets one? Just wondering.
" I believe that I speak for us all sir when I say: To hell with our orders." - Lt. Cmdr. Data
A lot of work went into determining what the odds were of getting a Jem'hadar Attack Ship from the original lockboxes and the figure that was arrived at was a 0.5% (or 1 in 200) chance of acquiring a ship on every box you open (i.e. opening more boxes doesn't 'increase' your chances of winning one, just gives you another roll of the dice).
There's no indication that these drop rates have changed - yes - we see a lot of ships being won but there's a heckuva lot more boxes being opened that aren't winners - that's why these are known as '$250' ships.
Basically, if you are a gambler and feel lucky, or want the lobis, you can open the boxes. If you don't feel that lucky, sell the key on the exchange, buy the ship several months after it was released. You'll pay around 30-60m for a regular lockbox ship (IE galor/bug not included). That's between 25-50keys.