Rihannsu
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 115
# 51
02-07-2013, 11:06 AM
I think what would make some people happy is if some of the less useful consoles were removed from the table. we all know what ones those are.
Republic Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,810
# 52
02-07-2013, 11:26 AM
Sample size may be brought into question indeed.

But what really convinces me is the fact that not only are the tactical energy type consoles low in occurence, but the 2 most popular and expensive ones (phaser relay and AP mag) are the lowest of them all. Same with the Field Gens, Neutroniums and Monotaniums. All the most popular consoles of their type, and all with the lowest occurence. I appreciate Bort taking the time to look into the drop table, but this is an undeniably rigged drop system.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 208
# 53
02-07-2013, 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borticuscryptic View Post
If (great big IF) anything is truly amiss with this process, THIS would be the culprit.

All the additional hooplah over "hidden weighting" is, quite frankly, a pile of ... stinky things. The data is, what the data is, and I've already publicly stated exactly what that data is.

So, if (again, this is a hypothetical ONLY) there is anything off-kilter about the overall distribution of rewards from these tables, the only remaining culprit is the core RNG, about which I have approximately zero knowledge or input.

I'll send out a feeler to investigate, though, just for peace of mind. Don't get your hopes up about results, though.

Before I go, I'll leave you all with one more parting thought: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

The numbers are what they are, but I think that at least some of the outcry being posted here is largely motivated by an emotional reaction to those figures, due to the effect they have on your in-game currencies (including Time as a more abstract currency).

This might be crazy..

Could you just Move Mk XII Greens into the crafting system (equal requirements to Mk XI purples or blues or whatever the equivalent in power is) and remove them from the possible options save for some of the more sought after ones?
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 135
# 54
02-07-2013, 11:50 AM
SUGGESTION:

Add strange artifacts, and powered artifacts to the lockboxs. Not like a large % chance to drop them maybe like 1-2% This would make lockboxes somewhat profitable. The main reason everyone is very emotional over this is that it costs like 1.5 million ec to get a powered artifact off exchange/made and then you end up with a green console to sell for 10,000 ec.

So if there more artifacts on the exchange they would be cheaper and wouldn't be so frustrating when you spend 1.5 million ec to get 10k console. If adding arts to lockbox dropped the average to 500k then it would only be 800k-1million to infuse an artifact and then make a console.

Please add artifacts to lockboxes!
http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/sh...d.php?t=490421 We want this help build support!
Ensign
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 3
# 55 Humble suggestion
02-07-2013, 12:14 PM
May I suggest a google search for how to program a good pseudo RND generator?
I would put the links myself, but got enough warnings already
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,381
# 56
02-07-2013, 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borticuscryptic View Post
Before I go, I'll leave you all with one more parting thought: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

The numbers are what they are, but I think that at least some of the outcry being posted here is largely motivated by an emotional reaction to those figures, due to the effect they have on your in-game currencies (including Time as a more abstract currency).
Given the OP's record keeping and commodoreshrvk's statistical analysis of that data in relation to what should be happening, it seems highly likely there's something beyond just a confirmation bias happening here.

Especially since the rarity numbers appear correct.

"Don't let them promote you. Don't let them transfer you. Don't let them do anything that takes you off the bridge of that ship, because while you're there... you can make a difference." - James T. Kirk
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 202
# 57
02-07-2013, 01:46 PM
I think you guys are just getting screwed by the RNG gods. I've crafted no where near 300 consoles and I've gotten 3 purple phaser relays and 1 disruptor induction coil.
STOP THE
Quote:
Originally Posted by tacofangs View Post
We planned on doing it next weekend, but then we saw your post and were like, "Dude, we should totally move that up a week! Tee Hee!"
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 444
# 58
02-07-2013, 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jam062307 View Post
I think you guys are just getting screwed by the RNG gods. I've crafted no where near 300 consoles and I've gotten 3 purple phaser relays and 1 disruptor induction coil.
It is not a question of whether you get consoles you want. It is a question if the consoles are dropping at equal rates like they are supposed to. Which, using the OP's data, they do not.
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 989
# 59
02-07-2013, 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by voiceoftemprus View Post
There is something wrong with RNG, though it might be a Doff only issue (or was, as I do not have it happen now as often as it used to). If I had a dollar for the number of times I have mass failed or mass critted 4+ Doff assignments in a row (as in a straight line, not 4+ randomly out of 20 total), I might have enough to get all 3 versions of the NW account packs. In the cases of mass failures, I normally had like 1% to 4% chances of failures for each, so having 4 or more in a group of 20 is possible but 4+ in a row would not seem reasonable, especially since it was pretty much daily at one point (or several times a day when I was overdoffing).
I'm say the following with a BIG proviso - I'm assuming they are using the server's random number generator and AFAIK, they are using Windows on their game servers. There not any know bias for it. Something that people need to realize, and I really mean REALIZE, that any outcome of a random number generator is possible.

How about some examples, using Cryptic earlier game City of Heroes (COH), for examples? COH had a to hit system based upon the Accuracy of attacker and Defense of the target. The ToHit chance has a floor of 5% and a ceiling of 95%. Which means you always, regardless of anything else, had a 5% chance to hit a target and a 5% chance to miss a target.

Now onto seemingly absurd streaks. How about missing 10 (or more) times in a row? Well I've had on more then one occassion had my combat logs go:

Miss, Hit forced by streak breaker, Miss, Hit forced by streak breaker, Miss, Hit forced by streak breaker, Miss, Hit forced by streak breaker, Miss, Hit forced by streak breaker. That's 10 misses in a row. (I'll explain streak breaker for non-COH alumni later).

Ten misses in a row. The probably of that happening is 0.05 ^ 10 == .000976562 == 0.0976562% Or less than 1 tenth of a percent. And yes I've happen a few times in my years of playing COH. I've had several streaks of 8 and 9 msses in a row. And my record is 13 misses in a row. The chance for 13 misses in row is %0.0122. A hair over one hundredth of one percent.

These long streaks can and do occur. But these are among millions of calls to the random number generator. Any and all sequences of numbers from the RNG are equally probably. And the calls that your character makes to the RNG are among hundreds of calls per second from other processes on the server. Every damage outcome, every loot table drop, ever decision the game AI makes all make uses of the RNG. The number of calls to the RNG between your calls is nearly random as well.

I'm going to give the Cryptic Coders the benefit of the doubt that they haven't done anything stupid in the way implement they random outcome routines. To throw bias in random outcomes, you would have to do something really, really stupid. Calling the RNG is the simplest thing world. (I've been a coder for over 20 years myself.)

The bottom line is that the Random Number Generator is not going to the culprit here unless Cryptic coders are totally incompetent. And my vote on that is going to be NO.

RE: The Streak Breaker in COH. It was a bit of code added to the ToHit determination code. The Streak Breaker would force a Hit if you missed too many times in a row based upon your Chance to Hit. At 95% chance to hit, you were allowed only 1 miss. If you next attack was a missed, Streak Breaker would force a hit. IRRC it was like 19 or 20 misses at a 5% chance to hit.

I guess the reason for the Streak Breaker is because player's hate to miss. Especially missing too many times in a row when you have a high chance to hit. And yes I can affirm that missing 10 times or more in a row when trying to take out a peon would totally suck.

Last edited by lordfuzun; 02-07-2013 at 02:21 PM.
Republic Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 814
# 60
02-07-2013, 02:27 PM
I ran this mission 12 times total. 12 useless green science consoles.

I gave up after that, on the rare chance I come across a PA I exchange it.
-------------
ISE ISE Ba-bee. "If you got the Borg yo... I'll solve 'em check out this shot while my torpedos dissolve 'em"
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