Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 976
# 61
02-07-2013, 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jam062307 View Post
I think you guys are just getting screwed by the RNG gods. I've crafted no where near 300 consoles and I've gotten 3 purple phaser relays and 1 disruptor induction coil.
Quote:
Originally Posted by commodoreshrvk View Post
It is not a question of whether you get consoles you want. It is a question if the consoles are dropping at equal rates like they are supposed to. Which, using the OP's data, they do not.
@jam062307 getting 3 Phaser consoles and 1 Disruptor Console would tend to disprove the theory the RNG is biased. And @commodoreshrvk I would put forth the obseration, you reaction a bit Conformational Bias.. the OP's sample size as other have point out is too small to tell if the RNG is biased or now.

The system folks could very easy do tests using the game engine to prove bias one way or other. Put a huge amount of NPCs on the map, code them to use the DOFF assignment loot tables make them give lots of loot drops using said tables, and use an "I Win Button" ability which kills everything on the map at once, and then collect and analyze the drops. Once a sufficient sample size is achieved (preferably several times) any RNG bias should be obvious.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 441
# 62
02-07-2013, 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lordfuzun View Post
snip...
*Retracted*

Quote:
Originally Posted by lordfuzun View Post
@commodoreshrvk I would put forth the observation, you reaction a bit Conformational Bias.. the OP's sample size as other have point out is too small to tell if the RNG is biased or now.
My statements or test do not suffer from confirmation bias so please read that article Borticus put up again. What I did is test the observed data to the expected pattern and even completed a sample size determination of the power of the data. There is no emotion present whatsoever in the statistical tests I put forth or the probabilities I have provided. The tests I conducted are routine for testing such distributional questions. Now, given the numerical, statistical, and probablistic evidence provided, consoles, regardless of quality, are not dropping uniformly and a sample size of 300 is sufficient to state that.

Whether people want to "believe" it or not in the face of the statistical and probabilistic fact is, well up to them. The only assumption we make in the whole analysis is that the OP's data are accurate, i.e. his sample is representative of the population. That assumption is made in ANY statistical analysis not just this one.

Last edited by commodoreshrvk; 02-08-2013 at 04:30 PM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 495
# 63
02-07-2013, 03:45 PM
Bort,

A lot of things that the players have had a gripe with.... STF drops, lock boxes, console fabbing... they all hinge on that RNG. Every-time I have complained about this stuff, I always mentioned the random number generator. I have never thought it was random enough.

You can easily get a 'sense' of it with the lock boxes. I stopped opening them quickly because of my suspicion of the RNG. A lot of RNG's use the current time as a seed and to be sure, I open a lock box every few minutes or open one in between running STFs and the like. I find that I get a better chance of getting a larger variety of stuff vs getting 10 Gamma Quadrant mini-doff packs it less than 3 seconds.

For example, I assume that all the mini-packs have the same drop chance from a lock box. If not that would counter my perception... but anyway, whenever I open like 5 or 6 boxes all at once, I'll get the same mini-doff pack over and over where if I wait a few seconds or a minute I'll get a mixture of doff packs, weapon packs and whatever. I know it could be just chance, but I think it's a crappy RNG.

Just try it on a test shard, give yourself 100 keys and 100 boxes and open them as fast as you can click and then do it again while waiting 10, 15, or 30 seconds or so. You'll notice you get large groups of the same item over and over while taking the fast approach. Taking the slow approach might net you some mid level items and a better mix of low level items.

Now I know you guys use C++ and you probably don't have your RNG in a loop like this example, but see here:

http://stackoverflow.com/questions/7...-random-enough

Even something as silly as where the RNG is initialized made a difference for the unrelated case above. What if STO suffers from such a small, almost unnoticeable oversight like the case above? I am glad you have reached out to your peers on the topic of the RNG. Perhaps you convince them to schedule a 15 min code review of the RNG?
1hr of work @NYS Min Wage 7.25 = 725 Zen
725 x 102 (or current exchange rate) DL = 73950 DL <- can you earn that per hour in game?

Join Date: Sep 2009 - I want my changeling lava lamp!

Last edited by phantomeight; 02-07-2013 at 04:09 PM.
Empire Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,202
# 64
02-07-2013, 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokeybacon90 View Post
Sample size may be brought into question indeed.

But what really convinces me is the fact that not only are the tactical energy type consoles low in occurence, but the 2 most popular and expensive ones (phaser relay and AP mag) are the lowest of them all. Same with the Field Gens, Neutroniums and Monotaniums. All the most popular consoles of their type, and all with the lowest occurence. I appreciate Bort taking the time to look into the drop table, but this is an undeniably rigged drop system.
I get these consoles quite often. As I stated before, only frustrated people will tend to post in such threads. The console i get the most? The shield one! Blue, purple, it likes me.
Commander
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 289
# 65
02-07-2013, 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lordfuzun View Post
@jam062307 getting 3 Phaser consoles and 1 Disruptor Console would tend to disprove the theory the RNG is biased. And @commodoreshrvk I would put forth the obseration, you reaction a bit Conformational Bias.. the OP's sample size as other have point out is too small to tell if the RNG is biased or now.

The system folks could very easy do tests using the game engine to prove bias one way or other. Put a huge amount of NPCs on the map, code them to use the DOFF assignment loot tables make them give lots of loot drops using said tables, and use an "I Win Button" ability which kills everything on the map at once, and then collect and analyze the drops. Once a sufficient sample size is achieved (preferably several times) any RNG bias should be obvious.
What are you talking about? This thread is about crafting Powered Alien artifacts from the Protoype Console DOFF mission you get from your Eng officer. If a Dev wants to give my Tribble account the ability to run this mission with no cooldown and iinfinite Powered Alien Objects and 5 purple Eng DOFFS with the required Crit traits for %24-%51-%24. I will spen a week and do a few thousand runs and document the results for everyone to see. Or I know they are busy but can they Just created a test account with a macro that runs this mission over and over with a bank large enough to hold a few thousand items and the review the results. Since my OP several other players have stated that they are seeing the same junk consoles like Bio function/Pre fire chambers/stealth modules/ over and over again. The consoles that drop the most are the generic beam/cannon/ torp for Tac, For SCI it is Bio/Stealth/Power insulator and for Eng,Plasma Dist manafold/Field Emitter/Injector Assembly
Commander
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 289
# 66
02-07-2013, 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phantomeight View Post
Bort,

A lot of things that the players have had a gripe with.... STF drops, lock boxes, console fabbing... they all hinge on that RNG. Every-time I have complained about this stuff, I always mentioned the random number generator. I have never thought it was random enough.

You can easily get a 'sense' of it with the lock boxes. I stopped opening them quickly because of my suspicion of the RNG. A lot of RNG's use the current time as a seed and to be sure, I open a lock box every few minutes or open one in between running STFs and the like. I find that I get a better chance of getting a larger variety of stuff vs getting 10 Gamma Quadrant mini-doff packs it less than 3 seconds.

For example, I assume that all the mini-packs have the same drop chance from a lock box. If not that would counter my perception... but anyway, whenever I open like 5 or 6 boxes all at once, I'll get the same mini-doff pack over and over where if I wait a few seconds or a minute I'll get a mixture of doff packs, weapon packs and whatever. I know it could be just chance, but I think it's a crappy RNG.

Just try it on a test shard, give yourself 100 keys and 100 boxes and open them as fast as you can click and then do it again while waiting 10, 15, or 30 seconds or so. You'll notice you get large groups of the same item over and over while taking the fast approach. Taking the slow approach might net you some mid level items and a better mix of low level items.

Now I know you guys use C++ and you probably don't have your RNG in a loop like this example, but see here:

http://stackoverflow.com/questions/7...-random-enough

Even something as silly as where the RNG is initialized made a difference for the unrelated case above. What if STO suffers from such a small, almost unnoticeable oversight like the case above? I am glad you have reached out to your peers on the topic of the RNG. Perhaps you convince them to schedule a 15 min code review of the RNG?

I also noticed that if I start another Prototype Console crafting as soon as one is finished (doing them back to back) I will get the same console as list time or another junk console) but when i allow at least a 2-4 hour cooldown I have better results. And the guy who thinks that nothing is wrong beacuse he has gotten a few good consoles obviously has not done this mission a much as myself and some of the other posters that have done this mission hundreds of times. There is a member of my fleet that did it only twice with blue and green doffs and got purple Antiproton Consoles both times. So yes good consoles do drop but after doing the mission several hundred times I see, and many other see a distinct pattern that is showing that it is not random and that the lesser value consoles drop at a much hight rate than the high value consoles do.

Last edited by admgreer; 02-07-2013 at 04:24 PM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 441
# 67
02-07-2013, 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diogene0 View Post
I get these consoles quite often. As I stated before, only frustrated people will tend to post in such threads. The console i get the most? The shield one! Blue, purple, it likes me.
Well the easy solution to this if you "feel" (and I mean feel because the stats are there) that the OP's results are somehow overly biased on only represent that very edge case which does not represent the population is to post your suite of data which can then be pooled with the OP's and the analysis can be re-done.
Commander
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 289
# 68
02-07-2013, 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by commodoreshrvk View Post
Well the easy solution to this if you "feel" (and I mean feel because the stats are there) that the OP's results are somehow overly biased on only represent that very edge case which does not represent the population is to post your suite of data which can then be pooled with the OP's and the analysis can be re-done.
This guy is just trolling.

There were 1 or 2 other people that posted here that have crafted as many if not more than I have. I ask them to please start recording your results and post them here. If a test account of some kind on tribble cannot be created to test this then I would hope the Devs would run a test account on this mission and do 4 or 5 hundred runs of it to see the honest results of it for them selves.
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 763
# 69
02-07-2013, 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phantomeight View Post
Bort,

A lot of RNG's use the current time as a seed and to be sure, I open a lock box every few minutes or open one in between running STFs and the like. I find that I get a better chance of getting a larger variety of stuff vs getting 10 Gamma Quadrant mini-doff packs it less than 3 seconds.
I have also noticed this. Not just opening boxes. I have found doff missions that finish within a few seconds of each other often have the same crit success/falure resault.
Empire Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,202
# 70
02-08-2013, 04:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by commodoreshrvk View Post
Well the easy solution to this if you "feel" (and I mean feel because the stats are there) that the OP's results are somehow overly biased on only represent that very edge case which does not represent the population is to post your suite of data which can then be pooled with the OP's and the analysis can be re-done.
What's the most credible possibility? Borticus lying to us for evil purposes or some players being incredibly unlucky? At some point, even something almost impossible happens. It would be abnormal if we didn't have any exceptions, "weird" and unexpected outcomes and so on.

The RNG might be broken. I'm not trolling when i say i get the shield console quite often. I'm a bit curious to see the results of the investigations about it. It would affect more than this assignment if it was flawed though, unless the game has several RNGs for different parts of the game, which would be weird and quite inefficient by design (spreading RNG rolls across players and systems would likely increase the 'randomness'). It would affect damage dealt by ships, other assignments, and so on. If it was true, i'm quite sure that the pvp community would be screaming about it, with threads like "way too much/not enough crits", because those guys are pretty good at monitoring such flaws.

I'm definitely not saying it doesn't require further studies, but only that you should expect - and accept - a "working as intended" answer. There are exceptions all the time. People win at lotteries everyday. You will find dozens of people having 20 or more coins of the same year in their wallets across the world. Not to be mean but you may also very well be the victim of the common belief that if the odds are extremely low it shouldn't happen. But it does. Everywhere. All the time.

Let's quote Sir Conan Doyle for posterity.

"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth".

Last edited by diogene0; 02-08-2013 at 05:04 AM.
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