Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 443
# 81
02-08-2013, 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazyteacher View Post
Actually, this is incorrect. There are 42 different consoles that can be crafted using this mission. Assuming they are all equally likely, there is a 1 in 42 chance to get a specific one. So, there is a 1 in 42 chance of getting a Phaser Relay. This means there is a 41 in 42 chance of NOT getting a Phaser Relay.

The math becomes (41/42)^300 = 0.000725. Thus there is a 0.07% chance of not getting a Phaser Relay. This works out to a 1 in 1379 chance.
I stand corrected and will graciously retract my statements pertaining to the probability of obtaining a phaser relay as I have calculated the chances of getting 300 phaser relays. It still does not change the probability that the OP observed distribution differs from the expected distribution. Also, it does not change that the observed distribution happening from "bad luck" is small.

Oh and P.S., the odds then of getting at least one Phaser Relay in 300 tries then becomes 1 - (41/42)^300 =0.999275 or 1 in 1.000725...yet that highly probable result did not happen.

Last edited by commodoreshrvk; 02-08-2013 at 07:35 PM.
Commander
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 289
# 82
02-08-2013, 05:21 PM
I am continuing to Craft every day and will update by numbers on the OP to keep track of what I am getting. ( I got a Blue Antiproton Mag regulator and a purple Emergency force field today!!!!)

Last edited by admgreer; 02-08-2013 at 09:04 PM.
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 515
# 83
02-08-2013, 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwstolemyname View Post
I have also noticed this. Not just opening boxes. I have found doff missions that finish within a few seconds of each other often have the same crit success/falure resault.
Yes me too and I even considered mentioning that, but the post was getting to long.
1hr of work @NYS Min Wage 7.25 = 725 Zen
725 x 102 (or current exchange rate) DL = 73950 DL <- can you earn that per hour in game?

Join Date: Sep 2009 - I want my changeling lava lamp!
Career Officer
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,895
# 84
02-08-2013, 11:18 PM
I think you're definitely running into the problem of a very low sample size. While crafting 300 consoles requires a large investment of in-game resources, it's really a tiny number. I've crafted a few hundred of these things myself, and while I haven't kept a nice spreadsheet like you have to track the results, I've received two purple phaser relays, two purple antiproton mag regulators, and at least two of the purple tetryon consoles. There was even a purple field generator in there, too. And, yes, a staggering number of worthless consoles of all types and rarities.

Should it be weighted towards tactical consoles? But what if I *want* a biofunction monitor? Who decides what has value- what doesn't- for the weighting? Borticus? He doesn't want that job.

*Edit: I'll add that there may very well be a problem with the RNG in this game. I have noticed that if I open two reward packs together very quickly, they have a seemingly improbable chance of containing the same thing. But, again, that could just as easily be a sample size problem.

Last edited by futurepastnow; 02-08-2013 at 11:20 PM.
Captain
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,138
# 85
02-09-2013, 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazyteacher View Post
The math becomes (41/42)^300 = 0.000725. Thus there is a 0.07% chance of not getting a Phaser Relay. This works out to a 1 in 1379 chance.
Which means that if 2000 people craft 300 consoles apiece, you expect at least one guy who never gets a phaser array. Of course, there's plenty of other things he didn't get, either, but I point out that nobody(except me) bothered to mention that he didn't get a Biofunction Monitor either. I'm sure there's a lot more console crafters out there than merely 2000, so this has to happen to somebody.

Quite simply, I am not convinced that anything shady or interesting is occurring here. It's clear why the expected distribution of rarities matches the results: There are only 3 possible outcomes, with a roughtly 1:2:1 ratio of occurrence. 300 is a fairly sizeable sample size for testing this. However, there are 42 possible consoles...300 is NOT a big sample size to test something like that.

As for theory of sticky RNGs, I call bollocks on this. There are several reasons why RNGs become sticky: Failure to seed the RNG will result in an identical sequence being generated every single time. RNGs are therefore typically seeded with a value, generally some value derived from server time. The other possible way for an RNG to become sticky is if it this identical value is used to seed multiple instances of the same RNG. This would occur only if the time value had a low resolution (say, seconds), and the RNG was reseeded in several different threads that launched simultaneously. This, of course, cannot possibly describe the behavior of "waiting several hours" or even "several minutes" when it comes to opening boxes or queue doff missions. Hours and minutes are pretty much an eternity on a computer's timescale, and even if the resolution was as bad as "seconds", it would matter because of how doff missions resolve.

Now, how do doff missions resolve? An interesting thing occurs here: A doff mission does not resolve itself and determine its outcome until you look at it! How do I know this? Well, awhile back, I queued some doff missions. As is typical after one queues a doff mission, I buggered the hell off and switched to another toon. Hours later, the doff mission had finished, but as I didn't really consider it important, I hadn't bothered to look at it. I needed my toon for something on Tribble. I copied him over, did my test, and noted that my doff missions had ended badly. Curious about how this worked, I deleted the toon off Tribble, and copied myself again: Opening up my doff missions, I had gotten entirely different outcomes...outcomes which were again completely different when I finally opened the real version on Holodeck. In short, doff missions do not even resolve themselves until you look at them. There is no mechanism by which even a sticky RNG could possibly affect doff missions, unless every time you opened a sequence of the same doff mission, you always got the same result. This doesn't happen, so this sticky-RNG theory is bollocks.

Now, the two-reward-packs thing, THAT could very probably be a sticky RNG, IF every query submitted to open a pack was handled by a different thread spawned with the same seed, such as the second...but that would be very noticeable, very fast. Realistically, getting garbage out of a box is such a likely outcome that it should be no surprise at all when it repeats itself multiple times in a row. At least 99% of everything in a box is garbage, and there aren't all that many items to choose from.

Last edited by doffingcomrade; 02-09-2013 at 03:55 AM.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 242
# 86
02-09-2013, 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borticuscryptic View Post
If (great big IF) anything is truly amiss with this process, THIS would be the culprit.

All the additional hooplah over "hidden weighting" is, quite frankly, a pile of ... stinky things. The data is, what the data is, and I've already publicly stated exactly what that data is.

So, if (again, this is a hypothetical ONLY) there is anything off-kilter about the overall distribution of rewards from these tables, the only remaining culprit is the core RNG, about which I have approximately zero knowledge or input.

I'll send out a feeler to investigate, though, just for peace of mind. Don't get your hopes up about results, though.

Before I go, I'll leave you all with one more parting thought: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

The numbers are what they are, but I think that at least some of the outcry being posted here is largely motivated by an emotional reaction to those figures, due to the effect they have on your in-game currencies (including Time as a more abstract currency).
Ive had 5 Purple Tellarites since the artifacts started so I here is what I have noticed over the past year.

The Quality ratio seems to be fine. Ive always gotten blues and purples in about the right proportion cant really complain about that.

What i have noticed is that I do seem to get the same few over and over, in my case I get some that others have mentioned they dont see. I get a lot of phaser relays and a lot of bio function monitors.

Something I have noticed with a few doff related rewards is that the RNG seems off and tend to repeat the same rewards. This seems different per character. Lets use Instigate Defection. On three characters I tend to get the same one about every other time on each character. Sometimes it feels like everytime, So one charater might get Sizzta (energy weapons guy) over and over and another might get Alenia (?..the diplomat) over and over but then the other toon will see them rarely. Seems like each character has it own set of repeats.

So while there may not be some super secret weighting scheme, i do think that odds on items doesnt really feel random to me over all
PWE IS NOT A REPUTABLE COMPANY
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 269
# 87
02-09-2013, 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by admgreer View Post
I dug up my spread-sheet and here are results of crafting over 300 consoles: ( No one can convince me it's random) the Purple/Blue/Green Quality results were accurate running it at %24-%51-%24


SCI: Stealth Module (25), Sensor Probes (24) , Power Insulator (19), Countermeasure System (19), Inertial Dampeners (14), Flow Capacitor (12), Graviton Generator (11), Particle Generator (8), Emitter Array (8), Field Generator (1) 141 Sci Consoles

Eng: Injector Assembly (20), Field Emitter (19), Plasma Distribution Manifold (16), Diburnium Hull Plating (10), Parametallic Hull Plating (8), Diburnium Hull Plating, (8) SIF Gen (7) Emergency Force Fields (8), Electroceramic Hull Plating (5), Ablative Hull Armor (5), Monotanium Alloy,(4) EPS Flow Reg (4), Neutronium Alloy (2) Consoles RCS Consoles (1) 117 Eng Consoles

Tac: Directed Energy Distribution Manifold (18), Warhead Yield Chamber (15), Prefire Chamber (10), Variable Geometry Detonators (8), Transphasic Compressor (7), Polaron Phase Modulator (6), Photon Detonation Assembly (6), Tetryon Pulse Generator (4), Ambiplasma Envelope(4), Chroniton Flux Regulator (4), TCD Subspace Infuser (3), Plasma Infuser (4), Disruptor Induction Coil (2), Antiproton Mag Regulator (2), Phaser Relay (0) 91 Tac consoles

I have done some addtional crafting since OP, I have updated the OP with my results.
Ok, so I'm going to help you out tracking this. I started crafting on 2 separate toons yesterday. I gather 24 Artifacts a week and usually only run the Fabricate Prototype Console assignment over the weekends. I've been running this routine ever since the Children's Toys chain was introduced. I still have nearly all the consoles which I made last weekend in my inventory. It looks as though I have sold a few, however.

Out of the last 21 consoles crafted I have made 3 Emitter Arrays (all blue) and 3 Emergency Force Field Consoles (2x blue, 1x purple).

I've literally made a thousand of these things and I consistently see some of the same ones being made over and over. I have such a tendency for Emergency Force Fields, Biofunction Monitors, Warhead Yield Chambers, Emitter Arrays, Field Emitters, Graviton Generators, Countermeasures, Inertial Dampeners and Sensor Probes you wouldn't believe it! I wish I had been tracking these earlier so I can add more data but I'm very glad you've made a thread where the data can be stockpiled because I know that you're on to something.

I'll make a post after every 50 consoles that I craft to update totals so there should be new totals to add to your list every 2 weeks.

Last edited by rooster75; 02-09-2013 at 10:06 AM.
Lt. Commander
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 190
# 88
02-09-2013, 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doffingcomrade View Post
As for theory of sticky RNGs, I call bollocks on this.

Now, how do doff missions resolve? An interesting thing occurs here: A doff mission does not resolve itself and determine its outcome until you look at it!
Well, we don't know how the STO RNG is implemented so anything we're doing is obviously hand-waving. Perhaps for performance reasons there is only one RNG roll per "tick" and that is used game-wide?

If DOFF missions truly do resolve when you look at it, then this becomes an easy issue to test. Everyone wait until they complete their next alien artifact mission, then tranfer their toon to Tribble. Assuming the reward tables, algorithms etc are the same, we could easily get a larger dataset quickly.

Here are my fabrication notes running on Holodeck. I don't have optimal doffs and haven't tracked my rarity chances.

Countermeasure system Mk XII green - worthless
2x Ablative armor Mk XII purple - 4.4 million
Montanium alloy XII green - worthless
Tetryon pulse XII green - 170k
emergency force fields blue - 40k
biofunction monitor mk XII purple - 1.75mil
EPS flow regulater XII green - worthless
warhead yield chamber XII blue
Tactical disruptor coil XII blue - 2.8 mil
Survivor of Romulus
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,117
# 89
02-09-2013, 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wesleycrasher View Post
I suppose we should take your word for it. Statistically speaking, 300 is a very small sample size, but I gave up on this doff mission after only 30 attempts because I had the same results. Piles of stealth modules and equally worthless garbage. Oh well.
i had same thing ive given up on it same as some in my kdf fleet everyone said there got sensor probes with in there 1st 3 trys. we think its stacked that way maybe its one of them cryptic bugs we all love :-D
Welcome to bugs online were we only fix the bugs you like, and will ignore the ones you hate.
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Say No to ARK
Starfleet Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 172
# 90
02-09-2013, 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnlbrtnfrnt View Post
Something I have noticed with a few doff related rewards is that the RNG seems off and tend to repeat the same rewards. This seems different per character. Lets use Instigate Defection. On three characters I tend to get the same one about every other time on each character. Sometimes it feels like everytime, So one charater might get Sizzta (energy weapons guy) over and over and another might get Alenia (?..the diplomat) over and over but then the other toon will see them rarely. Seems like each character has it own set of repeats.

So while there may not be some super secret weighting scheme, i do think that odds on items doesnt really feel random to me over all
I can definitely confirm that this seems to occur with my characters. One Gorn character of mine has gotten four of the same purple Rigellian (I think?) Systems Engineers, out of I believe five total attempts at Instigate Defection. A Federation character of mine has gotten at least three of the same purple Nausicaan security/tactical duty officers with relatively few attempts. Without knowing the total number of possible outcomes, this isn't necessarily evidence of something being amiss... but it's still strange and fairly vexing.

I find very similar results with the experimental console upgrade assignment. The characters who undertake these assignments seem to get the same few consoles (different for each character) repeatedly.

I will begin tracking the results of the following assignments:
Instigate Defection
Experimental Console Upgrades
Fabricate Prototype Console from Alien Artifact

I'll post results in this thread.
Starships: Model errors and feedback project, 2410 edition.
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