Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 622
# 11
02-20-2013, 08:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrimpinion View Post
that word; I don't think it means what you think it means.

Okay, full disclosure - I don't even really know what you're actually talking about. a daily of some sort, appears to be tied to a fleet action of some kind. I'm guessing...some sort of bonus prize if you do a certain FA when it's up or some such?


well, anyway, while I may be ignorant of what precisely you mean, I can infer enough to know the statement that it's *impossible* to not have it drop for 1 fortnight doesn't pass the smell test.

Let's see...clearly, there is more than one, um, thinger, that could, um..."pop" for this daily whatsit.

Cool, let's take the most unlikely and worst case scenario: there are only 2 thingers eligible for dailishness.


Now, the odds of 14 consequtive same picks from ONLY TWO potential choices are indeed, quite small...but 4 choices instead of only 2? Okay, that math is deceptively hard, heheh, but it gets WAY more likely the larger the potential set of outcomes that ONE of them doesn't come up 14 times in a row. My point is: it's not impossible, it's just, at most, unlikely.


And it's not that this ONE potential outcome is all super unlikely, it's that there are MILLIONS of seemingly impossible or nearly-so outcomes like this in just your STO playing experience, times hundreds of thousands of people, etc. etc. I had a drop of rain hit my glasses coming into work this morning. I was outside in thopen for like, 15 SECONDS. do you have any idea how small my glasses are? how lightly it was raining, how big "outside" is?!


IMPOSSIBLE!
You do realize the phrase 'statistically impossible' means so improbable as to be impossible. No? Thought so. Hence the wall of text.
All cloaks should be canon.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 70
# 12
02-20-2013, 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloctoad View Post
You do realize the phrase 'statistically impossible' means so improbable as to be impossible. No? Thought so. Hence the wall of text.
Well, see, I gave you the benefit of the doubt, and assumed you *meant* "that should basically almost never ever happen" when you said "statistically impossible," as the phrase itself is pretty darned close to complete nonsense when taken at face value.

while we're testing oneanother's reading comprehension, though: did *you* read my "wall of text" closely enough to see where I explained that nobody with a working understanding of probability would find your reported experience in and of itself the slightest bit peculiar?
Captain
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 622
# 13
02-20-2013, 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrimpinion View Post
Well, see, I gave you the benefit of the doubt, and assumed you *meant* "that should basically almost never ever happen" when you said "statistically impossible," as the phrase itself is pretty darned close to complete nonsense when taken at face value.

while we're testing oneanother's reading comprehension, though: did *you* read my "wall of text" closely enough to see where I explained that nobody with a working understanding of probability would find your reported experience in and of itself the slightest bit peculiar?
I didn't bother reading it because I have a working understanding of probability. I also didn't complain about the continued lack of said mission in the post. I merely stated a fact.
All cloaks should be canon.
Lieutenant
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 70
# 14
02-20-2013, 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloctoad View Post
I didn't bother reading it because I have a working understanding of probability. I also didn't complain about the continued lack of said mission in the post. I merely stated a fact. You began the assumption parade and charade.
Bloctoad, dude. I think you may have misread (or, as you state above...not read) my post, and have taken my response to be some kind of an attack on your person.


I didn't say you complained. I suck at charades. I have a bad knee, so marching is out, though I suppose I could ride in a float or something. Not fond of crowds though.

All I'm saying is that considering the number of things in STO governed by an RNG, the fact that one thing from a potential handful/bunch didn't get picked 14 times in a row isn't all that odd.


And now, I shall have my lunch. I tip my 8 oz bottle of Dr. Pepper at you, and bid you a fine afternoon.
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