(Updated: Opening chances for possibility 1 corrected, see *)

Hello,

My question is basically:

When is the contents of a lockbox determined ?

Some possibilities:

1. The contents of the lockbox is determined when it drops.

2. The contents of the lockbox is determined when it is opened by a key.

Example for possibility 1:

200 boxes drop, 1 box contains the valuable ship.

User A opens 195 boxes and finds nothing, remaining 5 boxes are posted on the exchange.

User B buys the 5 boxes opens them and finds the valuable ship.

Example for possibility 2:

User A opens 195 boxes and finds nothing.

User B opens 5 boxes and finds nothing.

I think statistically there is a difference between possibility 1 and possibility 2.

The opening of the boxes in possibility 1 influences what could be in the remaining boxes. There is a dependence.

While possibility 2 is less dependent and the dependency is based on something else, for example the state of the current random number generator.

So possibility 1 is based on a historical generation of chances.

So possibility 2 is based on current/dynamic generation of chances.

For the player possibility 2 would be worse.

It's a bit like rolling dice.

If the dice was rolled 6 times, the user has 1/6 chance. (6 boxes, each box contains on average one number of the dice).

However if the dice is re-rolled every time the user opens the box the chance changes.

*

incorrect: The user has 1/6 chance each time instead of: 1/6, 2/6, 3/6, 4/6, 5/6, 6/6.

correct: The user has 1/6 chance each time (for possibility 2) instead of (possibility 1): 1/6, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, 1/1.

Therefore my question is very important to understand what the winning chances are for picking boxes from the exchange.

There is a player who picks the boxes from the exchange and is making a profit so it seems.

I want to know if it's true or false.

To know if it is true or false it requires me to know the answer to my question.

I hope that some developer can confirm if it's possibility 1 (which would cost some harddisk space to store all generated contents) or if it's possibility 2 (which would be space efficient but a bit more lame ?).

So far startrek online seems to have huge ammounts of storage space, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's actually possibility 1 ?

(In short it probably has to do with statistical distributions ? is it possible for a postman to pick the right postings ?

the postman thinks so

game theory also confirms the postman, game master has 3 doors, pick a door, game master opens a door, game theory says: switch doors.)